FY2025 Q4 EB-5 Data Update (I-526/I526E by country, I-829, I-956F)

The USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page has finally been updated with more quarterly reports. We now know what happened with EB-5 form receipts, approvals, and denials from July to September 2025 (FY2025 Q4). This post discusses EB-5 data from two reports: the All Form Types report and Form I-526 report.

Thank you again to USCIS for publishing a dedicated EB-5 report with country-specific and category-specific I-526/I-526E data. This detail is so important for backlog and wait time analysis, and now we don’t have to sue to get it.

The major news: EB-5 demand dropped slightly overall in Q4 (particularly from China and India), and processing volume remained low overall. That means that the set-aside backlog growth rate slowed in Q4, and the near-term risk of Visa Bulletin retrogression did not increase very much.  Meanwhile, approval rates remained generally high.

As usual, I copied the quarterly data into my spreadsheets and made a variety of charts that put the data update in context of wider trends.

All Forms Report Summary

For convenience, I made image excerpts of EB-5 data in the “All Form Types” report. Note that the Q4 table includes a column for median processing time in months for each form. The Fiscal Year table provides a nice summary of all EB-5 activity in FY2025.

IPO Productivity Trend

Overall, IPO processed about the same number of forms in Q4 as in Q3. A drop in the number of legacy I-526 processed was counterbalanced by a few hundred more I-526E and I-829 completions. But in context of past performance, IPO productivity still looks quite low.

Receipt and Processing Volume Trend

FY2025 ended with more investor petitions filed but fewer investor petitions processed than in the previous year. The following chart compares annual receipt numbers against (1) annual processing volume, and (2) the average number investors who can be accommodated in a year of visas. In years when receipts exceed processing volume, then pending petition backlogs grow. In years when receipts exceed annual investor visa numbers, then visa backlogs grow. FY2025 slightly shrank the pending petition backlog at USCIS, but grew the pipeline backlog of applicants seeking future visas.

I-829 Processing Trend

USCIS processed a few more I-829 in Q4 than in the previous quarter. The approval rate was 90% — a bit lower than previous quarters – and the median processing time inched up to 12.8 months.

Pre-RIA I-526 Processing Trend

A few legacy I-526 remain pending, but USCIS dramatically cut legacy I-526 processing activity in Q4. These unfortunate old petitions, previously held up by the Visa Availability Approach to China I-526 processing, are getting a lot of denials now (49% denial rate in Q4).

Post-RIA I-526, I-526E, and I-956F Processing Trend

I-526E processing picked up a bit in FY2025, but not nearly enough to close the distance with receipts. Denial rates remained low for regional center I-526E and high for direct EB-5.

USCIS has been processing a good volume of I-956F – more than enough to keep up with receipts and prevent a pending backlog. I note that I-956F project denials have increased slightly, which will eventually result in denials for I-526E associated with those projects.

Post-RIA Demand Trend

The report of I-526/I-526E receipts by country and TEA category shows some shifts in Q4 as compared with Q1-Q3. I-526/I-526E receipts dropped slightly for both Rural and High Unemployment in Q4, and from both China and India. “Rest of World” demand picked up in Q4. I don’t know if this will prove a trend, but it would make sense as a self-regulating response to education about backlogs. I have wondered about a potential demand surge as the grandfathering deadline approaches, but no such surge had started as of July to September 2025, at least. The Q4 report continues to report “0” for Infrastructure I-526E filings in every month, though we know that Infrastructure I-526E were filed before September 2025.(For example…)

Note

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