EB-5 Updates

October 2026 Visa Bulletin Background and Outlook

The October 2026 Visa Bulletin has finally been published — with no dates or warning notes yet for EB-5 Set Aside categories, and significant date advancement for China and India in EB-5 Unreserved. This post considers what’s happening behind the bulletin, and where EB-5 visa issuance is headed.

Visa Bulletin date movement is not arbitrary, but calculated to release the right number of applicants to match with available visas. Visa Bulletin dates correspond to applicant priority dates, so I think about EB-5 date movement in context of data for I-526/I-526E receipts by priority date.

India 5th Unreserved

The India EB-5 Unreserved Final Action Date was at May 1, 2022 for most of FY2026, and now moved to December 1, 2023 in the October 2026 Visa Bulletin.

Who becomes newly-qualified for visa issuance thanks to October 2026 Visa Bulletin movement for India Unreserved?

Exactly 0 Indians have priority dates exclusively associated with the Unreserved category from May 1, 2022 to December 1, 2023, according to I-526/I-526E receipt reports from USCIS (summarized below). So Department of State is obviously not relying on $1.05M/non-TEA investors (the only applicants to qualify solely for Unreserved visas) to take Unreserved visas for those dates.

However, receipt data shows 599 India-born Rural and/or High Unemployment investors with priority dates from May 1, 2022 to December 1, 2023. Many of these TEA investors have petition approvals and are still waiting – with their families – for either a set-aside or an Unreserved visa. That creates a population of people with appropriate priority dates who could be requesting the 500+ India Unreserved visas that will be available in FY2027 (in addition to absorbing as many Rural and High Unemployment visas as Department of State is willing and able to issue in FY2027).

I do not know whether Department of State or USCIS will eventually start automatically allocating Unreserved visas as available to qualified TEA investors, or whether EB-5 applicants qualifying in multiple subcategories will each have to make a proactive choice between a set-aside or an Unreserved visa. (No-questions-asked allocation of Unreserved visas was how DOS handled visa issuance prior to 2022, in the days of the former Regional Center and TEA set-asides. But things may be different since 2022. A category choice procedure was published for consular processing at least (see pg. 11 of “Department of State/AILA Liaison Committee Meeting March 20, 2024). USCIS may eventually create a similar selection procedure for AOS applicants – at least once set-aside final action dates force the issue.

China 5th Unreserved

The October 2026 Visa Bulletin keeps the China Unreserved Chart A Final Action Date that’s been in place since July, but moves the China Unreserved Chart B Date for Filing all the way to March 2021. This filing date movement is an enormous jump that makes nearly every pre-RIA China investor now eligible to file a visa application.

Department of State is trying to “stimulate demand” – seeing how many people respond with visa applications. If many respond, then Chart B might retrogress for China Unreserved (as happened from 2023 to 2025), and Chinese with pre-2021 priority dates might still wait a long time for EB-5 visas. But maybe Chart B indeed represents visas “soon to be available.” That would mean the legacy China EB-5 backlog is clearing earlier than I would have expected from the large number of Chinese investors with no visas yet. Such near-term clearing could happen based on some mix of high Unreserved visa issuance and high denial/withdrawal rates going forward. Both are plausible, considering high EB visa limits in times of immigration disruption, typical Guangzhou productivity even in periods when other consulates struggle, legacy China applicant exhaustion after already decade-long wait times, and recent discriminatory processing for China-born applicants.

I carefully assembled the following information-rich slide to place past China Visa Bulletin movement in context of investor numbers (as reflected in I-526 receipt data). The towering receipt numbers in 2014-2016 explain why those priority dates moved so slowly through the Visa Bulletin and visa issuance. The downward slope in China I-526 receipts in 2017-2022 underlies my prediction that China final action date movement is poised to accelerate in future Visa Bulletins — and puts the October 2026 Chart B date in context.

When can the China backlog of old priority dates be cleared? The answer is very important to both Chinese and Indian investors since 2022. Annual visa supply to post-2022 Chinese and Indian investors will increase by thousands, once they become the oldest priority dates able to claim “otherwise unused” unreserved visas that are regularly leftover from Rest of the World. (When I am fairly optimistic about near-term high visa limits and decent approval rates, I estimate that the legacy China backlog — last fully counted as of 2024 — might be cleared by 2029. It could be earlier if failure rates are sadly extremely high — or later if actual China visa allocation proves lower than I hope, and/or denials lower than I expect.)

“Current” 5th Set Aside Categories

What does it mean that Rural, High Unemployment and Infrastructure remain “Current” in the October 2026 Visa Bulletin? Good news for people wanting to file I-485 in October 2026, but almost nothing about ultimate visa wait times. I remember April 2015, when the Visa Bulletin said “Current” for China EB-5. I also remember March 2023, when the Visa Bulletin finally moved the China EB-5 Final Action Date beyond April 2015 to allow visa issuance. This record shows that some Chinese investors who filed I-526 in April 2015 (under a “Current” visa bulletin with no China EB-5 limit) waited eight years for a visa to be allocated for their priority date. The 2015 investors need not have been have been surprised by the long wait time — if only they had seen contemporary I-526 receipt numbers, counted up the thousands of other Chinese with earlier priority dates still in process as of 2015, and estimated how long it could take that many investors plus family to get visas. That’s why I focus today on publicizing I-526E receipt numbers. (And why I cringe when people who know better persist in pointing at today’s Visa Bulletin as predictive for future visa wait times.)

Still have questions? The file linked to my EB5 Timing page has a lot of data and source links, and you can book a timing consultation to discuss in person if needed.

How the EB-5 backlog is advancing (AIIA FOIA of I-526E processing by country and TEA, FY2026 consular processing and AOS)

I-526/I-526E processing by TEA and Country through May 2026

Taking a break from hitting “refresh” on the Visa Bulletin page, I joined a webinar on Sunday hosted by AIIA to discuss important new data showing how EB-5 petitions are being processed at USCIS. USCIS quarterly reports only give a total number of I-526/I-526E approvals and denials. AIIA filed a Freedom of Information Act request for a breakdown of approvals and denials by TEA and country. After a love tap from Galati Law, USCIS responded to AIIA’s FOIA request with data that shows the rate and order in which Rural, High Unemployment, and other post-RIA investors have been moving through I-526/I-526E processing.

See AIIA’s post AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for May 2026 for detail of the FOIA data for I-526 and I-526E receipts, approvals, and denials up through May 31, 2026. The receipt data matches quarterly reports published on the USCIS website (except with more countries itemized), while the approval and denial details are unique to this FOIA dataset. The AIIA post shares detailed tables and charts, including an interesting table that breaks down I-526/I-526E inventory status by month. Investors with pending petitions can consult that table, find their priority date month, and see who’s been processed already and who else is still waiting for that date. I made a few summary tables by year to highlight overall trends in the data.

Points that I notice in I-526/I-526E processing data through May 2026

• Rural processing priority continues to be obvious. Rural accounts for 72% of all I-526/I-526E decisions through May 2026. Rural currently appears about two years ahead of High Unemployment overall in terms of I-526E filing dates being processed at USCIS.
• However, High Unemployment I-526/I-526E processing has picked up somewhat in recent months — as I guessed it might following the inventory management announcement in February 2026. HUA petitions accounted for just 16% of petitions processed through June 2025 (see AIIA’s previous FOIA), but 23% of petitions processed through May 2026. I am glad to see HUA less abandoned than before, though the numbers are still too low.
• USCIS approved a total 4,763 Rural investor petitions and 1,354 High Unemployment investor petitions by May 2026. Adding on spouses and children, that could be over 10,000 Rural visa applicants and nearly 3,000 or more HUA visa applicants. So far as I can guess from partial data reports on visa issuance, at most about 5,000 Rural visas and 2,500 HUA visas have been issued, ever. Conclusion: today’s population of qualified visa applicants (people who have I-526/I-526E approval but no visa yet) could be quite large for Rural and possibly still small for HUA. That translates into more near-term chance to actually use/run out of Rural visas, meaning relatively high near-term risk of a visa bulletin date for Rural. If the government is willing to issue visas to qualified applicants, which is not a given (see below). Meanwhile, the High Unemployment queue that’s mostly stuck in I-526E processing has less near-term chance of triggering the visa bulletin – but lack of queue movement obviously bodes ill for long-term wait times.
• Comparing I-526/I-526E petitions received with petitions processed by country, India continues to fare better than China or Rest of World in terms of volume and dates of petitions processed.
• USCIS processing remains not strictly in order by filing date. By May, USCIS had processed almost half of Rural I-526/I-526E filed in 2025, but  18% of Rural petitions filed in 2022-2024 had not been processed yet. Processing activity focused on 2022-2023 cases for High Unemployment, but handfuls of HUA petitions filed in 2024-2026 also had decisions by May.

FY2026 Visa Issuance — Consular Processing and Status Adjustment

The AIIA FOIA data gives insight into what’s happening at Step 1 in the EB-5 process: who is entering the pipeline backlog by filing petitions, and who’s advancing with petition approvals. I also keep an eye on the Step 2 of consular processing and status adjustment: who is exiting EB-5 visa backlogs by receiving conditional permanent residence?

There has been suspicious silence around visa issuance since 2024, with delayed consulate reports, missing visa office reports, and delayed visa bulletins. Is it possible that under cover of darkness, Department of State is honorably and efficiently issuing visas? The partial info that I’ve been able to cobble from various reports and statements suggests that the answer is “no” for consular processing and “maybe until recently” for employment-based I-485. No wonder the Visa Office is struggling to define Visa Bulletin dates that will keep queues in some kind of order by country and category, while starting the year with a large visa supply that the government would prefer not to issue. “Receiving a U.S. visa remains a privilege granted at the government’s discretion, not an entitlement,” as government press releases like to remind the public with each capricious new restriction. AIIA is trying to organize to tackle the visa processing problem as well — through litigation if that’s what it takes. See The Administration is Attacking EB-5 by Wasting Visa Numbers through an RFE Debacle (September 22, 2026) and consider how you can support the effort.

As usual, I’ve updated my data file linked to the EB-5 Timing Page with the latest data. And I offer consultations for people who want to book a time to discuss questions one-on-one.

Sluggish volumes and rising denial rates continue in FY2026 Q3 processing data

The USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page now includes EB-5 form receipt and processing data for FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026), and I-485 inventory data through August 5, 2026. I particularly consult the All Forms report, the report of I-526/I-526E receipts by country and TEA category (thank you USCIS!), the Net Backlog report, and I-485 reports.

The latest data shows respect for the immigration system and immigrants as reflected in robust processing productivity and approval rates — in my dreams. In fact, the data tells a story of ongoing dysfunction.

Denials: In FY2026 Q3, IPO denied almost 1 in 4 I-526E processed, and the California Service Center denied more than 1 in 4 employment-based I-485 processed (though not all WSC EB cases are EB-5). Denials accounted for 69% of standalone I-526 processed and 82% of pre-RIA I-526 processed in Q3. Setting the stage for ongoing carnage, IPO denied 22 project I-956F applications in Q3. I-829 still looks fairly healthy, with denial rate remaining under 10%. (I have several posts in process related to EB-5 denial factors, discussing lessons learned from reading over 300 I-526, I-526E, and I-956F appeal decisions recently published.)

Volumes: USCIS approved fewer I-526E and I-526 in Q3 than Q2 while not significantly improving I-829 volumes. Rural and High Unemployment I-485 processing volume appears to have taken an abrupt dip in June/July, after having been quite strong earlier in the year. EB-5 demand as reflected in I-526/I-526E receipts remained steady in Q3, with India Rural once again coming out on top.

Impact: I updated the EB5 Backlog Analysis spreadsheet linked to my EB5 Timing page with the Q3 data. The data update doesn’t really change my outlook, since I’ve been betting on negative sluggishness in the near term while noting that things could change any time. USCIS has capacity to be processing many more petitions, Department of State ought to be scheduling many more interviews than attested so far, and the market may be casting up a demand surge since June. We shall see!

I’ve thoughtfully prepared charts and tables to place FY2026 Q3 data in context, and highlight points of interest. (If this is helpful for you, consider supporting the blog.)

Excerpt of EB-5 Form Data in the the FY2026 Q3 All Forms report

FY2026 Q3 Data in Context for I-526, I-526E, I-956F, and I-829 (All Forms Report)

Data related to I-485 (derived from the Pending EB Applications reports and I-485 reports)

Data Related to EB-5 Set-Aside Demand (I-526/I-526E reports) and the Adjustment of Status Set-Aside Backlog (Pending EB Applications report)

P.S. The Q3 Net Backlog report indicates that 100 people have untouched I-140G pending for the Gold Card. No approvals or denials separately reported yet for I-140G on the USCIS data page. I’d be very interested to see an investigation into the accounts receiving the fees and unrestricted cash gifts for this pyrite program.

FY2026 Q1 EB-5 Consular Processing and AOS Update

Almost a year late (and after I made another plea through my nicer Senator’s office), Department of State finally started publishing monthly visa issuance data for FY2026. Still only three months of data, and half the links are broken, but it’s something. This is our first window into consular processing activity for EB-5 this fiscal year. (8/20 UPDATE: now it’s five months of data.)

I anxiously monitor visa issuance activity, because it determines Visa Bulletin movement. When Department of State gets close to issuing all the Rural or High Unemployment visas available for the period, that’s when the Visa Bulletin gates can come down with final action dates to control demand, starting with China and India.

In FY2025, DOS (apparently) ended up issuing barely half of the set-aside visas available. No wonder the FY2025 Visa Bulletins stayed “current” for Rural and High Unemployment. No wonder backlogs grew. The new data shows some increased activity for the first quarter of FY2026, with visa issuance volumes getting closer to catching up with availability — at least for Rural.

The following table combines the consular processing data published so far (through December 2025 February 2026) with adjustment of status estimates that I derived from comparing monthly I-485 inventory reports published by USCIS (now available to May 6, 2026).

The Rural movement is good news for the backlog — the line is advancing and people are getting visas — and a retrogression warning signal. Department of State could be close to issuing all this year’s supply of Rural visas, if it kept issuing visas at the Q1 rate or better. I look forward to seeing what the September 2026 Visa Bulletin will say about year-end visa availability. Meanwhile High Unemployment visa issuance numbers were very low in Q1, not close to using available supply (but might have picked up since then, judging by estimated AOS numbers for later months). Department of State reports issuing a few Infrastructure visas in Q1 — nowhere near the limit, but a nice proof-of-life considering that USCIS continues to omit Infrastructure from its I-526E reports. Overall, it appears that Adjustment of Status enjoyed better movement than consular processing in Q1.

I’m mainly interested in consular processing as a piece of the total EB-5 visa issuance picture, but it’s also interesting to look at detail in the consular reports. For example, the consular reports include set-aside visa codes that distinguish principals from spouses and children. I note that the actual visas-per-investor ratio on the consular side is closer to 3-to-1 than the 2-to-1 ratio that I use as a baseline guess for total EB-5 backlog estimates. I’m copying below a few tables that I made when interpreting the DOS reports.

And finally… I decline to report the announcement because the propaganda-speak rhetoric coming out of USCIS makes me ill, but people should note the August 8, 2026 policy manual changes related to denial process. The nub is in this quote: “If all required initial evidence is not submitted with the benefit request, or the evidence submitted is insufficient to demonstrate eligibility, USCIS may deny the benefit request without issuing an RFE or NOID.” Immigrant now know what they knew already: that they are in a hostile environment where the government seeks to deny benefits. The moral: even more than before, avoid grey areas, partial filings, needing to supplement the record after filing, disorganized paperwork, or generally any situation that depends on an adjudicator going out of the way to be careful, flexible, or charitable with review. Even more than before, strive to help clients find a straight and narrow path and to assemble documents that are complete and correct the first time, and hard for the reviewer to misinterpret. The previous policy helped to avoid frivolous denials by affording the petitioner a chance to respond to questions before misinterpretation became denial. How many RFEs have we answered by gently pointing out: “the evidence that you say is missing is right there in Exhibit 2.” Now USCIS is giving itself another policy cover to get away with errors and omissions in review, while saying that it’s just virtuously cracking down on errors and omissions in filings. Sigh.

FY2026 Q2 EB-5 Processing Data (I-526/I-526E, I-829, I-956F)

Today USCIS updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data page with reports for form receipts, approvals, denials, and processing times as of FY2026 Q2 (January to March 2026).

The reports show steady incoming EB-5 demand in Q2, persistently low EB-5 processing volumes, and slightly elevated denial rates.

I updated the spreadsheet linked to my EB5 Timing page, but the new data does not shift the analysis much. It turns out that indeed, Rural and High Unemployment backlogs continued to grow in Q2 at nearly the same rate as in Q1. Low I-526E approval volumes in Q2 continued to limit the number of investors becoming qualified visa applicants. I keep expecting a surge in I-526/I-526E receipts and/or processing activity, but that hadn’t happened yet as of March 2026. Meanwhile, I-829 processing dipped slightly and I-526 processing remained almost nonexistent in Q2, while median processing times ticked up.

The All Form Types report includes the number of EB-5 forms received and processed in FY2026 Q2.

I-526/I-526E Filings by Country and TEA Category

The dedicated Form I-526/I-526E report for FY2026 Q2 provides detail for receipts by country and TEA category. (Thank you USCIS for this essential data for understanding otherwise invisible backlogs!) See the tables below for a summary of Q2 data, comparison with the previous Q1 report (very similar), and aggregate totals to date. China and India filed almost twice as many Rural as High Unemployment petitions in recent quarters, mirroring differences in set-aside visa numbers. The Infrastructure mystery continues, with USCIS still not recording/reporting any Infrastructure I-526E receipts — despite industry/investor reports that a significant number of Infrastructure I-526E have been filed.

Summing up reports for 2022 to 2026, the data shows over 18,000 EB-5 investments made from April 2022 to March 2026. It’s going to take awhile to find visas for potentially over 36,000 visa applicants. (Department of State has still not published the 2025 Report of the Visa Office or any FY2026 monthly reports, so we don’t know what’s happening currently with visa issuance. The most recent pending I-485 report shows over 7,600 Rural and over 8,200 High Unemployment adjustment applicants pending as of April 3, 2026.)

Processing Trends

Overall, IPO processing productivity dipped again in FY2026 Q2.

The following charts put the Q2 data for I-526, I-526E, I-829, and I-956F in context of previous reports. I note median processing time increases across the board (which might reflect a trend toward more FIFO processing), a slightly elevated I-526E denial rate (20%), a slight dip in I-829 processing volume, and ongoing low-volume and negative processing for I-526. So long as USCIS consistently processes fewer petitions than it receives every quarter, pending inventories will continue to grow. What is IPO staff doing, I wonder? The NPRM for the proposed EB-5 regulation disclosed that IPO is in the midst of a four-year plan to hire 229 more staff, with “about half” the allocated positions filled as of November 3, 2025. That’s good news. Surely all those human resources must translate into more processing activity, eventually.

FY2026 Q1 EB-5 Receipt and Processing Data

Finally, more information about what’s been happening in EB-5 since September last year! Today the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page published quarterly data covering petition receipts, approvals, and denials from October to December 2025 (FY2026 Q1). I-485 reports have now been published up to April 3, 2026. The following table is an excerpt of EB-5 data from the latest All Form Types report.

Processing Volume Trend

EB-5 processing volumes fell overall in FY2026 Q1, unfortunately. The previous two quarters had me hoping for a good trend, but no.

I-526E Processing Volume and Receipts by TEA Category and Country

Total I-526E receipts in FY2026 Q1 were right in line with the average for the previous three quarters — not much higher or much lower than expected. Q1 shows a significant denial rate for the first time (19% of I-526E processed in Q1). The low volume of I-526E approvals helps to explain why the Visa Bulletin still has no movement for set-aside visas, and why the backlog of pending I-526E keeps growing (exceeding 10,000 by December).

Once again, USCIS thankfully published a report specific to I-526/I-526E filings by country and TEA category. The report shows increasing shift toward demand from India-born investors and for Rural projects. The USCIS report still records no Infrastructure receipts, though the industry reports I-526E filings for Infrastructure projects.

Placing the FY2026 Q1 report in context of previous I-526/I-526E reports shows that a total 16,321 EB-5 investors started their process by filing petitions from April 2022 to December 2025. That means over $13 billion contributed to the U.S. economy by immigrant investors under RIA. It also represents over 30,000 likely visa applicants, with the addition of spouses and children — a challenge considering future set-aside visa numbers and the few set-aside visas issued to date.

Post-RIA Direct EB-5

The standalone direct EB-5 data continues to be extremely concerning. I couldn’t even make a visible chart for the sad fact that USCIS processed only 10 I-526 in FY2026 Q1 — 5 approvals and 5 denials — while taking in 98 more receipts and ending the quarter with 736 direct I-526 pending. Is there currently only one guy left at IPO who works on direct EB-5 processing? Direct investors have an outsize individual economic impact, and deserve more attention.

Legacy I-526 and I-829 Processing

I-829 processing volumes fell a bit in Q1, but kept up with receipts at least. The I-829 approval rate remains high.

Meanwhile, legacy (pre-RIA) I-526 processing approached a near halt in Q1, with only 70 petitions processed. The 59% denial rate is hardly surprising considering the age of these unfortunate pre-RIA I-526 — a median 93.2 months old per the report.

Consular Processing

Department of State continues to maintain stony data silence as to activity with consular processing in FY2026. I tend to worry that no news means low visa issuance, and consequent risk of unused and wasted visas. But I was encouraged to hear this week that India Unreserved, at least, has already managed to receive a full quota of visas for FY2026. If only the government could also maximize EB-5 visa issuance for everyone else!

May 2026 Visa Bulletin (Unreserved updates)

The May 2026 Visa Bulletin has been published, with new signals for EB-5 Unreserved but no news yet for EB-5 Set-Aside categories. I put the updates in context.

EB-5 Set-Aside Categories

Rural, High Unemployment, and Infrastructure  remain “Current” in the May bulletin, and there’s no note warning of set-aside retrogression coming soon.

I had been anxiously awaiting the May bulletin, because May is historically a time to reassess status. As I previously pointed out, EB-5 Visa Bulletin retrogression hit China and Vietnam for the first time in a May. I’ll hold my breath again for the June bulletin, and then begin to give up hope of maximized set-aside visa issuance this year. Department of State should have enough qualified visa applicants in Rural at least, based on the pace of I-526E approvals. But it looks as if they have not ramped up visa processing sufficiently to be on track to issue all the 4,000+ Rural, 2,000+ High Unemployment, and 400+ Infrastructure visas available in FY2026.

Needless to say, silence in the May 2026 Visa Bulletin doesn’t mean no crowds for set-aside visas. There are probably over 15,000 set-aside investors currently heading toward visas, shortly to be joined by spouses and children. Visa Bulletin stoplights are predictably in their future, once they can get past I-526E processing — considering that most years have just about 3,200 set-aside visas available to give.

EB-5 Unreserved India

The May 2026 Visa Bulletin keeps the India Unreserved dates at May 1, 2022 for final action and May 1, 2025 for filing, but also includes a warning note:

E.  VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED CATEGORIES FOR INDIA Sufficient demand and increased number use by India in the EB-5 unreserved visa categories may make it necessary to retrogress the final action date or make the category unavailable to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the FY 2026 annual limit.  This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.

What we can conclude from the note:

• DOS has almost finished issuing all the FY2026 visas available to allocate to India Unreserved. (This is good news so far as it goes. With only a fixed number of visas available for the year, it’s nice to know that DOS issued them earlier rather than later in the year.)
• When India Unreserved gets a retrogressed Final Action Date or a “U” for “Unavailable” in a coming visa bulletin, that functions as a “sold out” sign, indicating all the FY2026 allocable to India Unreserved have been issued. (The retrogressed date will be set sufficiently far back to prevent any more applicants from moving forward — functioning as a “stop” signal, but not otherwise implying anything about the status of applicants with later dates. The date will predictably advance again when FY2027 visa supply becomes available in October 2026.)
• DOS sees more India Unreserved applicants with priority dates before May 1, 2022 than there are FY2026 visas available to allocate. (This is no surprise. As I pointed out in my post on the January 2026 Visa Bulletin, India Unreserved had 721 pre-RIA India applicants with pending I-485 at the start of FY2026, and likely more than 700 applicants awaiting consular processing at NVC as well. With those numbers, and considering the 7% country cap, we could never have expected all pending pre-May 2022 India Unreserved applicants to get visas in FY2026.)

EB-5 Unreserved China

The May 2026 Visa Bulletin moved the China Unreserved dates from September 1 to September 22, 2016 for Final Action, and from October 1, 2016 to March 1, 2017 for Filing. These are impressive leaps forward, in context of number of potential applicants in those priority date ranges. Applicant priority dates originate with investors filing I-526, so I look at historical data for number of I-526 filed.  

With thousands of China-born investors presumably accompanied by thousands of spouses and children to seek visas, the crowd in these dates could only be moving along so well thanks to thousands of visas on the table.  Unlike India Unreserved, which has a fairly fixed annual visa supply (constrained by the country cap and recent priority dates), the China Unreserved visa allocation can vary widely depending on Rest of World usage. If consulates around the world are struggling to schedule EB-5 interviews for a variety of reasons, the China allocation can be swollen by unused visas. And although Department of State STILL hasn’t published FY2026 numerical visa limits, it’s also possible that EB is getting many extra rollover visas this year (considering that family-based visa issuance may have fallen 30,000+ below quota in FY25, judging by monthly visa issuance reports). In all, good news for the China Unreserved backlog.

Adjustment of Status

Through April, USCIS has allowed using Dates for Filing to determine eligibility to file I-485. However, starting in May 2026, USCIS states that Final Action Dates will start to control I-485 filing. As the AOS page explains: “If USCIS determines there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, we will state on this page that you may use the Dates for Filing chart.Otherwise, we will indicate on this page that you must use the Final Action Dates chart to determine when you may file your adjustment of status application.”

EB-5 Unreserved Progress (FY26 Q1 I-485 reports, FY25 consular visas, approved I-526 awaiting visa availability)

This post checks in with the backlog of EB-5 applicants with priority dates before March 15, 2022 who are still waiting for Unreserved visas.

The pre-RIA EB-5 backlog is spread across several locations. The following list notes the places where applicants may be waiting, and available information on inventory and progress for each location.

1. I-526 still pending
   • 1,105 pre-RIA I-526 remained pending as of September 2025. These people mostly have old priority dates (the FY26 Q1 median processing time was 78.5 months) and many will likely be denied in the end. (The FY26 Q1 legacy I-526 denial rate was 49%, with just under 200 petitions processed.) This pool likely represents few future visa applicants.
2. I-526 approved but no I-485 or visa application filed yet
   • This number is unreported, but should be small and mainly limited to China-born applicants waiting for Chart B. (One might guess the number by comparing I-485 and NVC applicants with expected numbers given I-526 receipts and approvals and visas issued, but I haven’t tried.)
3. I-526 approved and I-485 pending for adjustment of status
   • For pre-RIA, this pool should be just a bit smaller than the total pending I-485 inventory, for which we now have data through January 2026. See below for detailed inventory charts. As of January 2026, the pending pre-RIA Unreserved I-485 inventory was roughly 4,000, including around 3,000 from China, 500 from India, and 600 from Rest of Word. The inventory grows as the Visa Bulletin moves China Chart B and more I-485 get filed, and shrinks as visas get issued. It appears that in FY2026 Q1, AOS Unreserved visa issuance may have been around 100 to China, 220 or so to India, and 75-150 to Rest World.
4. I-526 approved and registered with the National Visa Center, waiting for consular processing
   • Department of State used to regularly report on the NVC inventory, but has not updated the official NVC waitlist report since 2023. The last available data is thanks to an IIUSA conference presentation in May 2024. As of May 2024, the NVC waitlist recorded 31,255 pending EB-5 applicants from China, 2,541 from India, and 5,774 from Rest of World. We can guess how many remain today by looking at I-526 approvals and consular visa issuance since May 2024, and guessing how the NVC inventory has been increased since 2024 by petition approvals and decreased by visa issuance, denials, giving up, etc. I guess that the NVC waitlist now has more than 20,000 but fewer than 28,000 pre-RIA applicants still waiting. See below for available detail on EB-5 Unreserved visa issuance in FY2025.

The data file linked to my EB-5 Timing page collects pre-RIA data on the Pre-RIA Data tab, and sets up a current backlog estimate by country on the Unreserved tab. Feel free to work with the data and add your own assumptions.

EB-5 Unreserved I-485 Inventory Detail

The following tables summarize the latest information about the pre-RIA Unreserved I-485 inventory in the reports “Pending Applications for Employment-Based Preference Categories” just published by USCIS for October 2025 to January 2026. One can get a rough sense of I-485 processing activity by looking at inventory differences month-to-month.

FY2025 Consular Visa Issuance

Official and exact FY2025 visa issuance numbers will not be available until Department of State publishes the next annual report. But I made a preliminary rough estimate by summing monthly reports for EB-5 Unreserved visa issuance from October 2024 to September 2025. I used yellow shading to highlight countries who are now blocked/limited by January 2026 executive orders from visas and entry. Sorry $800,000 investor in our economy — you can’t come into our country because you’re congenitally likely to use welfare [face palm]. But congrats to everyone who managed to get EB-5 visas before the 2026 orders, including 10 from Chad, my happy childhood home.

I-526 Awaiting Visa Availability Report

I’ll conclude with a post script to repeat why I disregard the confusing quarterly USCIS report titled Form I-140, I-360, I-526 Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Final Priority Dates.

This report looks as if it gives useful information about the EB-5 visa backlog, but it does not. It gives a very specific data point: the number of I-526 petitions that USCIS has approved, as of the report date, that have priority dates later than the Final Action Date in the concurrent Visa Bulletin.

This data point would be meaningful if the Visa Bulletin never retrogressed, and one could assume that everyone with an I-526 approval later than today’s Visa Bulletin’s Final Action Date has no visa yet. But that assumption does not hold in EB-5, given the final action date swings for China and India in recent years. So the USCIS report does not show the backlog of people still waiting for EB-5 visas, or reflect progress in issuing visas. The table below puts the most recent September 2025 USCIS report in context of the referenced Visa Bulletins and past USCIS reports.

For example, the number of “approved I-526 awaiting visa availability” for China plummeted from over 30,000 in the June 2025 USCIS report to under 15,000 in the September 2025 report. That difference tells us nothing about visa issuance or processing activity between June and September 2025. The different Visa Bulletin dates in June and September caused USCIS to be counting a different segment of I-526 approvals for each report. We can conclude from the report comparison that about 15,000 approved China I-526 have priority dates between January 2014 and December 2015. That’s about all we can conclude. The USCIS report cannot mean that these principals mostly don’t have visas yet, since Department of State has been issuing visas past January 2014 for years already per past Visa Bulletins. The report also cannot mean that these principals just received visas, since 15,000 visas cannot have been issued to China between June and September 2025.

Looking at the India column, I compare the USCIS reports from December 2022 and September 2025 — a relatively apples to apples comparison because the Visa Bulletin had a Final Action Date in November 2019 for India in each of these months. The comparison tells me that USCIS had processed more of its post-2019 I-526 inventory by 2025 than it had as of 2022. I cannot conclude that most or all of the 470 Indian investors who had gotten I-526 approval by September 2025, according to the USCIS report, did not also have a visa already by September 2025.

Note

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FY2026 Q1 EB-5 I-485 inventory changes and FY2025 consular visas

I-485 Inventory Update

We now have the first indicator for EB-5 visa issuance in FY2026, thanks to USCIS publishing more I-485 inventory reports (“Pending Applications for Employment-Based Preference Categories”) for November 3, 2025, December 3, 2025, and January 2, 2026.

I take each month’s inventory report and compare it against the previous month, to get a sense of visa activity. For example, the inventory of China Rural I-485 with December 2022 priority dates shows 61 pending forms as of October 2, 2025, down to 53 on November 3rd, 51 on December 3rd, and 50 on January 2nd. I look at those numbers and guess that 11 Rural visas may have been issued in FY2026 Q1 to China-born Rural applicants with December 2022 priority dates.

If net deductions from the I-485 inventory roughly represent visas issued, then over 800 set-aside EB-5 visas were issued through status adjustment in the first three months of FY2026. That’s twice the average quarterly AOS volume for set-asides in FY2025 — a good sign so far as it goes. If FY2026 set-aside visa issuance overall can double last year’s volume, then all available set-aside visas can be used this year. I note, however, that I-485 movement started strong in October and then tapered off in November and December. We shall see what happens next.

As usual, I-485 inventory deductions were spread over a wide range of priority dates — a reminder that the process is not exactly FIFO by priority date. Activity continued to be particularly concentrated in the Rural category, and on India-born applicants. I note that the I-485 inventory does capture some pending Infrastructure applicants, but with numbers small enough to be redacted with the letter “D”. The following table highlights interesting stories in the I-485 data.

Consular Processing Update

Department of State has posted the Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance report for September 2025, completing FY2025. I am disappointed to see no year-end surge in consular Unreserved visa issuance (which I’d thought might happen considering the year-end Visa Bulletin notes and date movement for China), but excited to see Infrastructure visas finally making the scoreboard.

Note

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FY2025 Q4 EB-5 Data Update (I-526/I526E by country, I-829, I-956F)

The USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page has finally been updated with more quarterly reports. We now know what happened with EB-5 form receipts, approvals, and denials from July to September 2025 (FY2025 Q4). This post discusses EB-5 data from two reports: the All Form Types report and Form I-526 report.

Thank you again to USCIS for publishing a dedicated EB-5 report with country-specific and category-specific I-526/I-526E data. This detail is so important for backlog and wait time analysis, and now we don’t have to sue to get it.

The major news: EB-5 demand dropped overall in Q4 (particularly from China and India), and processing volume remained low overall. That means that the set-aside backlog growth rate slowed in Q4, and the near-term risk of Visa Bulletin retrogression did not increase very much.  Meanwhile, approval rates remained generally high.

As usual, I copied the quarterly data into my spreadsheets and made a variety of charts that put the data update in context of wider trends.

All Forms Report Summary

For convenience, I made image excerpts of EB-5 data in the “All Form Types” report. Note that the Q4 table includes a column for median processing time in months for each form. The Fiscal Year table provides a nice summary of all EB-5 activity in FY2025.

IPO Productivity Trend

Overall, IPO processed about the same number of forms in Q4 as in Q3. A drop in the number of legacy I-526 processed was counterbalanced by a few hundred more I-526E and I-829 completions. But in context of past performance, IPO productivity still looks quite low.

Receipt and Processing Volume Trend

FY2025 ended with more investor petitions filed but fewer investor petitions processed than in the previous year. The following chart compares annual receipt numbers against (1) annual processing volume, and (2) the average number investors who can be accommodated in a year of visas. In years when receipts exceed processing volume, then pending petition backlogs grow. In years when receipts exceed annual investor visa numbers, then visa backlogs grow. FY2025 slightly shrank the pending petition backlog at USCIS, but grew the pipeline backlog of applicants seeking future visas.

I-829 Processing Trend

USCIS processed a few more I-829 in Q4 than in the previous quarter. The approval rate was 90% — a bit lower than previous quarters – and the median processing time inched up to 12.8 months.

Pre-RIA I-526 Processing Trend

A few legacy I-526 remain pending, but USCIS dramatically cut legacy I-526 processing activity in Q4. These unfortunate old petitions, previously held up by the Visa Availability Approach to China I-526 processing, are getting a lot of denials now (49% denial rate in Q4).

Post-RIA I-526, I-526E, and I-956F Processing Trend

I-526E processing picked up a bit in FY2025, but not nearly enough to close the distance with receipts. Denial rates remained low for regional center I-526E and high for direct EB-5.

USCIS has been processing a good volume of I-956F – more than enough to keep up with receipts and prevent a pending backlog. I note that I-956F project denials have increased slightly, which will eventually result in denials for I-526E associated with those projects.

Post-RIA Demand Trend

The report of I-526/I-526E receipts by country and TEA category shows some shifts in Q4 as compared with Q1-Q3. I-526/I-526E receipts dropped for both Rural and High Unemployment in Q4, and from both China and India. “Rest of World” demand picked up in Q4. I don’t know if this will prove a trend, but it would make sense as a self-regulating response to education about backlogs. I have wondered about a potential demand surge as the grandfathering deadline approaches, but no such surge had started as of July to September 2025, at least. The Q4 report continues to report “0” for Infrastructure I-526E filings in every month, though we know that Infrastructure I-526E were filed before September 2025. (For example…)

Note

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April 2026 Visa Bulletin

April starts the third quarter of the fiscal year – a prime time for Department of State to reassess progress with annual visa issuance and cut-off dates. I anxiously awaited the April 2026 Visa Bulletin, wondering whether we’d finally see a warning note for EB-5 along the lines of “It may become necessary to establish Dates for Filing and Final Action Dates to ensure that issuances in set aside categories do not exceed annual limits.” But, the April bulletin has no such note.

Looking back, the first-time EB-5 final action dates for China and Vietnam both came in a May Visa Bulletin, and were preceded by several months of warning notes. India got its first-ever EB-5 cut-off date in a July Visa Bulletin, with one warning in the previous month. (India EB-5’s second change from “Current” to a final action date came in the first Visa Bulletin of fiscal year 2023, with no prior warning.)

Considering the history, the continuing Visa Bulletin silence on set-asides — even to April 2026 — makes me guess that Department of State is not making good progress in issuing the 6,400 or so set-aside visas available in FY2026. (I look forward to hearing Charlie’s take on this next week, and appreciate WR Immigration continuing to post cautions about how to interpret/misinterpret the Visa Bulletin and AOS window.)

The April 2026 Visa Bulletin does repeat the general note that “Immigrant visa issuance rates for aliens from certain countries have decreased in light of various actions the administration has taken” and therefore “dates for filing and final action dates have been advanced across various immigrant visa categories” [allowing more visa issuance to those select aliens and countries not blocked by many administrative actions]. China Unreserved advanced from August 15, 2016 to September 1, 2016. The movement is small but could result in visas for quite a few applicants, considering that 5,334 Chinese investors filed I-526 between July 2016 and September 2016 (per IIUSA FOIA Request COW2017000616).

Infrastructure Revision

Just a note that I made a significant revision to the 2026 Backlog post published yesterday. (And to the corresponding Summary2 and Infra tabs in the Excel linked to my EB5 Timing page.) The calculation now reflects the monthly visa issuance data just published and — more significantly — more Infrastructure demand. A kind reader brought to my attention a couple large Infrastructure projects not previously on my list. Adding hundreds more Infrastructure investor slots to the log, plus a recent flurry of approvals, required striking most of my backlog analysis for Infrastructure. If only we had timely data from the government for reference, instead of having to piece together anecdotes! And once again, I’m impressed with the thought of how desperately EB-5 needs and deserves more visa numbers to support its demonstrated economic potential. The supply we’re working with is just too small, when one good project can overflow years worth of visas.

EB-5 visas through consulates June-August 2025

I shall claim credit! Hours after I finally gave up on government updates and published my important 2026 backlog post without new data, Department of State updated the Monthly Visa Issuance Statistics page for the first time in nine months. Now we know for sure how many EB-5 visas were issued through consulates in June, July, and August 2025. The numbers are about what I’d guessed — a bit higher for Rural and lower for High Unemployment, and higher for India and lower for China than I’d expected. But it’s really great to see solid numbers again, thank you DOS! Now we just need the NVC waitlist and FY2026 visa limit. The following pivot tables summarize FY2025 monthly consular visa issuance, now including June to August.