FY2023 Q4 EB-5 Form Data Report (I-526, I-526E, I-829, I-956, I-956F)

USCIS has updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data page with reports for forms filed and processed through FY2023 Q4 (the year and quarter ending September 30, 2023). For EB-5 numbers, I look at All USCIS Application and Petition Form Types (Fiscal Year 2023, Quarter 4) (PDF, 183.88 KB), the California Service Center numbers at Application for Adjustment of Status (Form I-485) Quarterly Report (Fiscal Year 2023, Quarter 4) (PDF, 337.2 KB) and Form I-140, I-360, I-526 Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Final Priority Dates (Fiscal Year 2023, Quarter 4) (PDF, 121.52 KB). I enter the quarterly numbers in my spreadsheets and compare against previous reports to identify trends and answer questions.

My top questions when I look at new EB-5 data: what’s the latest news on pipeline demand for post-RIA visa numbers? How many regional center projects are on the table, and what progress is USCIS making in adjudicating project applications and investor petitions? Are processing volumes increasing or decreasing for pre-RIA and post-RIA forms? What’s the latest news on I-956 and I-956F processing times?

Trend for I-526 and I-526E receipts

Are post-RIA investor petition numbers continuing to climb? How does incoming and cumulative demand look when compared against set-aside visa availability?

Answer from Q4 data: The linear upward trend continued, for a cumulative total of over 2,600 post-RIA I-526 and I-526E filed as of September 30, 2023. (The figure could be nearly 3,000 if one sums quarterly receipt numbers instead of believing the period-end pending and processed numbers.)

If we assume a visas-to-investor ratio of at least 2-to-1 (thinking about family sizes and denials), then 2,600 petitions filed translates into potential demand for at least 5,200 post-RIA visas accumulated in the pipeline as of September 2023. If we guess that filings in Q3 and Q4 continued the previous category breakdown (known from AIIA’s FOIA request of data through Q2) of 23% rural and 70% high unemployment, that would likely mean at least 1,200 pipeline rural applicants and at least 3,600 pipeline high unemployment applicants accumulated by September. If we guess that demand since April moved 100% to rural (the unlikely worst-case scenario for rural and best-case scenario for HU), that could mean at least 4,000 rural and 2,000 HU visa demand in the pipeline by September 2023. The pipeline — continuing to grow as I-526E continue to come in — is headed toward visa availability of about 4,000 rural/2,000 high unemployment in the first year, and about 2,000 rural/1,000 high unemployment in subsequent years. Important considerations for people wondering about future visa wait times that are a function of visa demand exceeding visa supply.

I-526E filings show strong demand to invest in the U.S. and support U.S. job creation; we need visa numbers sufficient to support and sustain that potential. An important advocacy focus for the EB-5 industry, as we face 2024 and beyond.

I-956 and I-956F Volume and Processing Times

How many projects are potentially out in the market raising EB-5 capital, and how many have been reviewed by USCIS? How many regional centers has USCIS reviewed for compliance under RIA?

Answer from Q4 data: USCIS reports a total 12 I-956F project applications processed in FY2023, and 231 I-956F project applications still pending at year-end. In other words, USCIS had reviewed only 5% of the total projects potentially out raising funds. However, I have personally heard about many I-956F approvals in December 2023, so hopefully the next quarterly I-956F report will look better. And I’m happy to see that USCIS has reviewed at least 148 (nearly 40%) of the 379 I-956 regional center applications filed through September. For whatever reason, USCIS is not disclosing denial rates for either I-956 or I-956F – only reporting on total forms processed. The median processing time looks good for the few forms that did manage to get processed – 9 months for I-956 and 12.8 months for I-956F. (This is a nice reference for applicants whose forms that didn’t get processed yet, and who may want to file Mandamus actions.)

from Processing Data Report for FY2023 Q4 (July 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023)

Form	FY2023 Received	FY2023 Approved	FY2023 Denied	FY2023 Total Processed	FY2023 Q4 Pending	FY2023 Q4 Processing Time
I-956	274	H	D	148	231	9
I-956F	185	H	D	12	231	12.8
I-956G	313	–	–	–	256	N/A
I-956H	2,350	–	–	–	3,188	N/A
I-956K	644	–	–	–	579	N/A

Post-RIA I-526E processing

How is USCIS doing on advancing post-RIA applicants to the visa stage by approving I-526E investor petitions?

Answer from Q4 data: I-526E processing data appears for the first time on the Q4 report, which records 63 I-526E approvals (no denials) both for FY2023 Q4 and the full year. If all 63 investors whose I-526E were approved in FY2023 Q4 can manage to get a FY2024 visa, that’s about 120 to 240 post-RIA visas. Not near the thousands of carryover visas available on a use-it-or-lose-it basis to set-aside categories in FY2024, but much better than nothing!

Pre-RIA I-526 and I-829 Processing

What’s happened to pre-RIA petition processing as USCIS also tries to accommodate the post-RIA workload? Are we anywhere near digging out of the processing collapse that started in 2019? How long will it take to clear the current I-526 and I-829 backlog, if recent processing volume continues?

Answer from Q4 data: USCIS has not abandoned pre-RIA petitions, and obviously made extra effort to improve I-526 and I-829 volumes for the fiscal year-end. There’s been a fairly consistent improvement trend since the rock bottom of 2021, which is great to see. But in a wider context, the best efforts of FY2023 Q4 are still only barely as good as mid-Pandemic processing volume, and still three times lower than the I-526 volumes USCIS was achieving prior to 2019. FY2023 ended with just under 10,000 I-526 and 10,000 I-829 pending. You do the math for how long it would take to clear that inventory if USCIS continues to adjudicate at a rate of 1,300 I-526 and 800 I-829 per quarter. The Investor Program Office must continue to ramp up its efforts (not slack off, as we’ve seen so far in the months since September).

People at the back of the inventory for I-526 and I-829 processing need not necessarily despair about their processing times, however, because processing is not close to FIFO. I know from other sources that USCIS has recently primarily been processing I-526 filed in November 2019 – nearly the end of the I-526 queue – and has been approving many I-829 filed in 2020, 2021, 2022, and even 2023, even as the median I-829 processing time reflects cases filed in 2019. See the charts below and on my regularly-updated Processing Data page the processing distribution of recent I-526 and I-829 approvals.

The I-526 denial rate continues to appear very high (37%); however, I have inside information that more than half of the decisions reported in the I-526 denial category in Q4 were actually voluntary withdrawals. The I-829 denial rate was 15% in Q4 — slightly higher than average. USCIS has reported no I-526E denials yet.

And finally, a note for anyone who benefits from my data reports that you are welcome to help make all this work worthwhile with a Paypal contribution. Happy New Year!

from Processing Data Report for FY2023 Q4 (July 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023)

Form	Received	Approved	Denied	Total Processed	Pending	Processing Time
I-526 (Pre-RIA)	–	814	477	1,291	9,527	50.5
I-526	57	–	–	–	182	N/A
I-526E	888	63	–	63	2,431	N/A
I-829	240	671	117	788	9,989	52.7