Unreserved EB-5 Visa Limit Reached

Today, Department of State announced Annual Limit Reached in the EB-5 Unreserved Category. This is good news overall — meaning that all Unreserved EB-5 visas available for FY2025 (at least 11,229 visas by my count) have been issued and won’t be lost to EB-5. The announcement clarifies that DOS did remember to include carryover of unused FY2023 Reserved visa numbers in FY2025’s Unreserved limit. I’ll be interested to see which countries ultimately benefited from the last-minute flurry of Unreserved visa issuance.

Consular interviews interview scheduling and I-485 adjustments Visa issuance for Unreserved EB-5 will now stop until FY2026 visas become available in October. (“Since all available EB-5 unreserved visas for FY 2025 have been used, embassies and consulates may not issue visas in these categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.”)

Apparently, FY2025 annual limits have sadly not been reached for EB-5 reserved categories, which means harm to the Rural and High Unemployment backlogs but future benefit to Unreserved from unused visas and carryover. For background, see my previous post on the October 2025 Visa Bulletin.

EB-5 in the October 2025 Visa Bulletin

The October 2025 visa bulletin has been published, giving the first indicator for EB-5 visa issuance in FY2026. Spoiler: the October 2025 visa bulletin imposes no filing or final action dates for EB-5 set-aside visa categories, and it has no note warning when such dates may appear in coming months. The bulletin gives Unreserved dates for China and India that are optimistic according to my backlog calculations, but less optimistic than the dates in the October 2024 visa bulletin. This post looks behind the surface of visa bulletin silence on EB-5 set-aside visas, and the retrogression for EB-5 Unreserved.

Rural and High Unemployment Visa Bulletin Silence

Why does the October 2025 visa bulletin still show “C” for all EB-5 set-aside categories? Why isn’t there any note at the base of the visa bulletin warning about cut-off dates coming soon? Because, the visa bulletin only imposes dates when there’s near-term risk of issuing more than the number of visas available in a category. That risk has not yet been triggered for Rural and High Unemployment due to (1) relatively few visa applicants and (2) even fewer visa interviews and adjustments. Reserved visa activity is apparently still low, despite thousands upon thousands of Rural and High Unemployment investors, because USCIS is not creating enough visa applicants by approving enough I-526(E) petitions, and Department of State is not issuing enough visas even to the qualified applicants it does have waiting.

Here’s an attempt to tell the story with a picture. The image shows the EB-5 process – I-526(E) processing followed by visa processing – and the issue: lots of pending and incoming I-526(E) (which aren’t considered in the visa bulletin) but relatively few petition approvals, few qualified visa applicants, and few visas issued (factors that do affect the visa bulletin). The image is more-or-less to scale, with each little ball intended to represent 100 investors, or about 200 current/future visa applicants. (Though it turns out, AI can’t really count.)

The data cited in the image is old now, since USCIS hasn’t published a data report since March 2025 and DOS hasn’t published a report since May 2025. But unless processing volumes magically improved in the unreported last six months, we may still be stuck with little set-aside visa issuance activity — and thus no visa bulletin activity yet — despite the high number of Rural and High Unemployment investors. (By the way, you can find my data collection saved together with source links on the EB5 Timing Page.) 

If you’re only wondering when the visa bulletin will announce set-aside retrogression, then you can just look at the base of the image and be comforted by relative lack of activity at the visa processing stage. If you’re wondering how long the green card process will take for a new investor, then you need to consider the entire image. A new EB-5 investor can’t skip straight to visa processing, but first waits in the I-526(E) processing funnel – which, as illustrated in the image, is already very crowded plus continually growing at a high rate and emptying at a low rate. That picture is not good for overall set-aside visa wait times.

Unreserved EB-5 Retrogression

The following chart compares Unreserved EB-5 dates in the October 2025 visa bulletin with the October 2024 visa bulletin.

October 2024 Visa BulletinOctober 2025 Visa BulletinMovement (months)
China Unreserved Chart A7/15/201612/8/2015-7.2
China Unreserved Chart B10/1/20167/1/2016-3.0
India Unreserved Chart A1/1/20222/1/2021-11.0
India Unreserved Chart B4/1/20224/1/20220.0

The comparison helps flag one wrong way to read the visa bulletin. Don’t look at the dates in one visa bulletin and assume “everyone within these dates is going to get visas soon, and many/most people up to these dates already have visas.”

Any Chinese and Indian EB-5 applicants who got excited back in October 2024 about 2016 and 2022 dates now realize – with Department of State – that those dates were aggressive and needed to be walked back. I am not surprised by the October 2025 visa bulletin dates, because I look at the number of people reportedly queued up within those dates as compared with visas issued and available.  As I discussed last year, FY2025 did not have enough visas available to satisfy all pending Chinese EB-5 applicants with pre-2016 dates, or all Indian EB-5 applicants with pre-2022 dates. No wonder that those dates from the October 2024 visa bulletin retrogressed, even after unexpectedly-high Unreserved visa issuance to China and India in FY2025.

I guess that the China Unreserved final action date could advance again to July 2016 shortly, but will not pass September 2016 for another few years — considering that 5,334 Chinese filed I-526 in July to September 2016, and may still be waiting to claim visas with spouses and children. I expect that the India Unreserved final action date will return shortly to November 15, 2019 and stay there, considering that the November 2019 filing surge could take years to work through the system – if most of the 745 Indians who filed I-526 in November 2019 ultimately claim visas with their spouses and children.  (For the detail and data behind this analysis, see the Pre-RIA China and Pre-RIA India tabs in the EB5 Backlog Analysis Excel file linked to my EB5 Timing page. I had previously hidden those Pre-RIA tabs because they use old National Visa Center waitlist data – as of May 2024 – and I kept expecting the NVC waitlist numbers to be updated and maybe significantly reduced. I hear that Department of State has been actively culling the NVC waitlist, booting out applicants who registered but then didn’t pursue a visa within a year. If this process eliminates many potential applicants from the backlog reported as of 2024, then my model can be recalculated and wait time estimates will fall accordingly. But, for now I’m working with the data that has been published.)

A benefit (for some) of aggressive visa bulletin dates is opportunity for out-of-order visa issuance. If an Indian EB-5 applicant with a January 2021 priority date had to wait for every Indian with an earlier EB-5 priority date to get visas before his turn came, then he could expect to wait years for a visa. But when the visa bulletin makes final action technically available already to January 2021, maybe that recent investor can skip over the remaining crowd of November 2019 India priority dates and snag a lucky non-FIFO visa shortly. With the disorder in USCIS and consular processing, there’s opportunity to benefit or suffer from queue-jumping. And meanwhile, the visa bulletin is generously letting all Indians benefit from an April 2022 Date for Filing, even though the India EB-5 backlog through April 2022 doesn’t appear on track to clear for several more years.

And finally, here’s an attempt at illustrating the Unreserved EB-5 visa backlog situation in a picture. By contrast with Reserved EB-5, Unreserved has a small and shrinking backlog awaiting I-526 processing but a large crowd of qualified applicants at the visa stage, where they trigger visa bulletin traffic control.

Updates and Resources (CanAm Whitepaper on Visa Allocation, IIUSA EB-5 Q&A, CSPA Policy Change, September Visa Bulletin, Mandamus, I-485)

This post provides links to important EB-5 resources and updates that I’ve been collecting to share.

New FAQ on Visa Backlogs (CanAm Whitepaper)

This week CanAm published EB-5 Visa Availability and Allocation: Q&A for 2025 – a set of articles that I wrote to address common visa questions from prospective and current EB-5 investors. Last year I wrote a Q&A that generally reviewed the basics of how visa numbers and allocation work in EB-5. This year’s Q&A addresses 13 more specific and personal questions, and references 2025 data. Most questions came from the CanAm sales team – such as “If I filed a Rural petition to get priority processing, am I required to take a Rural visa?”  “How long will it take for the Unreserved category to be current for an India-born investor?” “Is there any scenario where it would make sense for an investor in a Reserved category to choose from the Unreserved pool?” and so on. I contributed questions addressing points of confusion that I’ve encountered in timing consultations, such as “Is my visa wait time longer or shorter depending on my I-526E processing time?” I worked very hard on this Q&A, striving to respond as clearly and justly as I could to a list of tough questions about EB-5 visa availability and allocation. Thanks to CanAm for sponsoring the effort! There are many opportunities to get 1-2-sentence answers to EB-5 questions; this is your chance to get the 1-2-page response to your question.  

IIUSA EB-5 Q&A

IIUSA came out with an important and helpful Q&A resource this week for a wide audience.  IIUSA’s Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about the EB-5 Regional Center Program was developed by IIUSA’s Best Practices Committee as a practical guide for stakeholders involved in EB-5 transactions. The document is just 36 pages long but quite comprehensive – it could be a mini-book with the title “what you need to know to use EB-5.” A total of 78 questions cover a range of topics including investments, job creation, regional centers, projects, financial oversight, marketing and compliance, and the EB-5 immigration process. A lot of work, expertise, and experience obviously went into this document. The answers are clear and solid across a range of disciplines, and I recommend it as a source of general EB-5 knowledge for anyone involved in the project or investor side of EB-5.

USCIS EB-5 Q&A

I’ve been meaning to mention that on May 15, USCIS consolidated its EB-5 Q&A into one EB-5 Questions and Answers document linked to the USCIS EB-5 Resources page. The USCIS Q&A covers a range of questions about USCIS policy application, and particularly questions related to RIA implementation. I keep an eye on this page and save versions, because Q&A changes can quietly disclose revised USCIS policy interpretations. FYI if you track this as well, here’s a link to my redline of the May 15, 2025 version of the Q&A compared with the previous version as of July 17, 2024.

CSPA Policy Change

Last week, USCIS announced updated policy on the CSPA Age Calculation. “We are updating the Policy Manual to clarify that a visa becomes available for the purposes of Child Status Protection Act age calculation based on the Final Action Dates chart of the Department of State Visa Bulletin. The new guidance applies to requests filed on or after August 15, 2025.” Consistent with the administration’s goal to restrict immigration, the new policy will reduce the number of children who qualify to immigrate with their parents. It’s particularly concerning for EB-5 investor families from China and India who face long waits for their priority dates to match Final Action Dates. At least, the policy change applies prospectively to applications filed after the policy takes effect on August 15. Your lawyer can explain how this policy change may affect your children. See also articles on the policy change from Carolyn Lee and WR Immigration. Also note that while you’re asking your lawyer about CSPA bad news, you might also ask about the limits of the status conveyed by having a pending EB-5 I-485, EAD, and Advance Parole — and how to stay safe, especially in case of job change. It’s wise to be informed of potential worst-case scenarios when a hostile administration is interpreting the rules.

September Visa Bulletin and I-485 data

The September 2025 visa bulletin is out, with no changes to EB-5 dates but a note that “Visa Office expects to reach FY-2025 category limits in most employment-based preference categories during August and September. If at any time an annual limit were reached, it would be necessary to immediately make the preference category ‘unavailable’, and no further requests for numbers would be honored.” Reaching limits is good news: better for visas to be fully used than wasted. Considering the low numbers reported through May, however, the “most categories” maxing out FY2025 visas likely do not include EB-5 Rural, High Unemployment, or Infrastructure.

Monthly DOS and I-485 reports haven’t been published yet since May, but here FYI are my summaries of the May 5 pending I-485 inventory report, compared with the corresponding report from the start of FY2025.

EB-5 Webinars (Mandamus, Timing, Visas)

CanAm has been hosting webinars on a variety of hot EB-5 topics. I particularly appreciated the conversation with John Pratt on Avoiding and Addressing Delays in the EB-5 Process: Planning & Litigation (jump to minute 17 to hear John discussing the questions all EB-5 investors have about Mandamus actions) and the conversation with Joey Barnett and Charlie Oppenheim on EB-5 Visa Allocations and FY2026: Why the Numbers Matter More Than Ever. And you can tune in next week to hear more from Joey as well as Nicolai Hinrichsen, Min Wu and me on the topic of EB-5 Backlogs, Strategy, and What Investors Need to Know Now. (As someone with a face for whitepapers, I mainly recommend the written word for my backlog insights — but the other panelists have good insights! And I may be publishing another article soon with some outtakes from my slides.)

Blog support

If you benefit from this blog, just a reminder that I have a Paypal link available to help support the time spent in updates and making new resources. (Thanks Phuong Le for being a supporter and reminding me to make the contribution option visible!)

Good news (CIS Ombudsman, Sustainment litigation, good faith investor litigation, FOIA on Security Checks)

CIS Ombudsman Restored

I had mourned in March when the Administration shut down the CIS Ombudsman, which exists to help resolve problems with USCIS and improve USCIS processes. The Ombudsman committed considerable effort in 2024 to researching and communicating with USCIS about EB-5 issues, and we couldn’t afford to lose them. I rejoiced when a reader brought to my attention that the office has been restored as of May. The Ombudsman website was updated on May 23, 2025 with the note: “The Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman continues to exist and will perform its statutorily required functions.” I don’t know how many former Ombudsman staff can have returned from administrative leave, but at least the Request Case Assistance function is live again.

Sustainment Litigation

The litigation around the EB-5 sustainment period has reached a good milestone. Yesterday Judge Ana Reyes issued an Order in IUSA vs. DHS et al. that does not revert to the legacy sustainment requirement linked to Conditional Permanent Residence.

In the previous round of filings, Defendant DHS had asked the judge to hold the lawsuit in abeyance pending rulemaking, while Plaintiff IIUSA had asked the judge to vacate USCIS’s 2-year sustainment interpretation pending rulemaking. We waited with bated breath, wondering whether the judge was about to doom the industry to pre-RIA sustainment rules and/or confusion for as long as it takes to complete notice-and-comment rulemaking on RIA.

Thankfully, Judge Reyes did as DHS requested. She notes in the July 29 Order that the law did edit the sustainment requirement (“With the RIA, now immigrant investors’ investment ‘is expected to remain invested for not less than 2 years.'”), that the USCIS guidance on this change is “not (yet) final agency action,” and that a formal rule-making process is forthcoming with a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking slated to be published in November 2025. The NPRM will be followed by a notice-and-comment period, which will eventually be followed by a Final Rule. And after that, if the Final Rule does not address the Plaintiff’s concerns, then “the parties and Court can take up the final rule as necessary.”

I’m particularly happy to see the IIUSA press release celebrating this ruling as a win for IIUSA, which it is. Pushing USCIS to formal rulemaking is the one laudable goal of the IIUSA litigation, and IIUSA is so right to shift its weight to that solid point. The benefits extend beyond the sustainment issue, as we’re overdue for rulemaking to clarify and implement many aspects of RIA. I’m thankful that we finally get a deadline for this proper formal process to start. Some individual regional centers may want to continue to pursue other litigation arguments. But if any want to press the toxic contention that RIA intended to codify the pre-RIA sustainment requirement, let them come out and do so under their own names. With another Regional Center sunset looming, IIUSA needs high ground and a unifying role.

The rulemaking process may be lengthy. The last EB-5 regulation started with an NPRM and notice and comment in 2017, and resulted in a Final Rule in 2019 that was promptly challenged and ultimately vacated by litigation in 2021. I won’t be surprised if we get a new EB-5 law in 2027 before we get a chance to see any final result from the rulemaking process set to start with an NPRM in November 2025. I don’t know what sustainment period nuances will ultimately be defined by a final rule or rewritten in new law.  But in the interim, I’m glad that the status quo is the USCIS website guidance on RIA’s 2-year minimum sustainment period, not a complete lack of guidance or the horrors of CPR sustainment.

Good Faith Investor Protections

Subsection (M) “Treatment of Good Faith Investors Following Program Noncompliance” is another positive part of the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act that needs implementing. Subsection (M) offers some opportunity for blameless investors in troubled regional centers and projects to salvage their immigration process by changing affiliation or moving investment. I wrote about this last year in the article What happens to investors after regional center termination. But the Subsection (M) provisions are confusing and investors have faced difficulty in claiming protections – partly due to USCIS delay in terminating non-compliant regional centers. Now litigation is getting involved, with Galati Law leading the way. See the articles EB-5 Investors Sue USCIS Chief for Failing to Protect their Good Faith Investments as Required by Law and The Fight to Protect Good Faith EB-5 Investors.

FOIA on National Security Checks

I should also note tireless efforts by John Pratt and Ed Ramos to litigate for EB-5 integrity. They recently assisted AIIA to obtain a trove of FOIA documents from USCIS on how the Investor Program Office screens EB-5 petitioners for national security risks, including extreme vetting of Chinese nationals. For a summary of insights from the FOIA response see the article AIIA FOIA Series: Hidden USCIS Adjudication Standards – National Security Checks.   

Extra FY2025 visas for China and India (August 2025 visa bulletin)

The August 2025 Visa Bulletin has been published with a nice surprise: advanced final action dates for China Unreserved and India Unreserved. These countries had retrogressed back in April 2025, effectively shutting down the flow of Unreserved EB-5 visas for the year to China and India. Now the Visa Bulletin is moving dates forward to allow more visa issuance to these countries in August and September — the last months of this fiscal year. Chart A moved to December 8, 2015 for China and to November 15, 2019 for India.

I’m quoting below the notes at the base of the Visa Bulletin that explain the changes. Basically, when one country/category gets more visas, it means that another is having problems. China EB-5 will get more 2025 visas after all because Department of State has not managed to allocate visas to Rest of World EB-5 applicants. (The Visa Bulletin delicately says: “[rest of world] EB-5 number use has not materialized to the degree that was expected.” This might mean that the thousands of ROW EB-5 applicants registered at NVC have disappeared. But I’m readier to blame consulates for failing to schedule interviews and request numbers for ROW applicants who are ready to go.) Meanwhile, DOS credits low family-based visa issuance for extra visas now being made available at year-end to India EB-5.

The following chart shows how monthly EB-5 visa issuance to China and India dropped after April retrogression, but without any increase to ROW visa issuance. Now we can expect China and India numbers to spike up again for August and September 2025, while Rest of World applicants can look forward to their backlog being punted to 2026. (My previous post discussed how the ROW waitlist as of 2023 mostly did not get 2024 visas but instead pushed into 2025.)

Quoting from the August 2025 Visa Bulletin:

F.  VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED CATEGORY FOR CHINA

In the April 2025 Visa Bulletin, the EB-5 Unreserved final action date for China was retrogressed due to high Rest of World demand.  In the months that followed, EB-5 number use has not materialized to the degree that was expected.  Consequently, and in accordance with INA 202(a)(5), the EB-5 Unreserved final action dates for China has advanced to allow continued EB-5 Unreserved number use.  Note that if at any time the EB-5 Unreserved annual limit were reached, it would be necessary to immediately make the preference category “unavailable”, and no further requests for numbers would be honored. 

G.  VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED CATEGORY FOR INDIA

In the April 2025 Visa Bulletin, the EB-5 Unreserved final action date for India was retrogressed due to high demand.  It is expected that India will have unused family sponsored preference numbers that, under INA 202(a)(2), can fall down for use in the employment-based categories, including EB-5 Unreserved.  As a result, the final action date for EB-5 Unreserved has been advanced to use these available numbers.  Note that if at any time the EB-5 Unreserved annual limit were reached, it would be necessary to immediately make the preference category “unavailable”, and no further requests for numbers would be honored. 

I look forward to hearing what Joey Barnett and Charlie Oppenheim have to say about the August Visa Bulletin in the next episode of WR Immigration’s Chatting with Charlie.

Major Data Update (FY2024 Visa Report, FY2025 Q2 data, FY2025 I-485 and visa progress, visa interview timing)

It’s time to feast after a famine of EB-5 data. We finally have the Report of the Visa Office 2024 (though not the NVC Waiting list yet), monthly immigrant visa issuance numbers through May 2025, the monthly pending I-485 report to April 2025, and EB-5 form receipt and processing data through FY2025 Q2 (January to March 2025). Before copying summary charts, I’ll start with lessons I take from the data updates for pre-RIA investors, post-RIA investors, and regional centers.

Data Insights for Pre-RIA EB-5 Investors

Department of State issued a record 14,501 Unreserved EB-5 visas in FY2024 — even more than technically available under the quota. China, India, and Vietnam did especially well. Vietnam cleared its legacy NVC waitlist with 1,522 Unreserved visas issued, India got 1,323 Unreserved visas (within 7% of the total EB-5 visas theoretically available to India, considering set-asides, but 9% of Unreserved), and China cleaned up with 9,312 Unreserved visas — 64% of visas issued in FY2024. (A few Unreserved visas even got allocated to post-RIA Chinese and Indian applicants — can anyone explain?) Other countries fell behind. Of “other” country EB-5 applicants who were registered at the National Visa Center in November 2023, only 38% got visas in FY2024. The other 62% were not constrained by any cap or quota limit, but by DOS capacity to schedule interviews and USCIS ability to complete I-485.

The answer to the question “who gets a visa” doesn’t only depend on priority date and country limits, but also depends on country-specific processing capacity. I’d like to highlight a helpful new page on the DOS website: IV Scheduling Status Tool. The page explains the visa interview process and factors, and gives timing by post. Post-specific timing differences for immigrant visas generally help explain the differences we see in EB-5 visa issuance. For example, the tool shows that NVC is currently scheduling documentarily complete IV cases with visas available from February 2025 in Ho Chi Minh City, but from March 2023 in Lagos. The page itemizes factors that can affect visa interview times by post, including interview capacity of the embassy or consulate, local conditions that affect operations, staffing levels, volume of cases, and vetting timelines.

Meanwhile at USCIS, the legacy I-526 backlog continues to shrink — but slowly. Fewer than 2,000 I-526 remain pending (and only 300 unassigned), but processing volume dropped from nearly 2,000 in Q2 2024 to only 656 in Q2 2025. Denial rates for old I-526 remain relatively high – 30% in Q2.

I-829 processing volumes in FY2025 Q2 were half what they were this time last year, and not FIFO. The FY2025 Q2 report shows about 1,000 I-829 processed, nearly 7,000 left pending, and a median processing time for completed I-829 of only 8.2 months. This tells me that Mandamus actions are having an impact, causing USCIS to pick out and adjudicate many recently-filed I-829 even as many older cases remain pending.

FY2025 remains on track to issue all available Unreserved visas. ROW should have a good chance at more visas since the Visa Bulletin retrogressed for China in April and India in May. (However, as of May 2025 the effect was to lower visa issuance for China and India without increasing ROW visa issuance.)

Data Insights for Post-RIA EB-5 Investors

The data is not good news from a post-RIA investor perspective. Already-too-large backlogs are getting larger, and an already-too-slow process has been slowing down. Set-aside visa issuance proved low in FY2024 (just 332 Rural and 91 High Unemployment visas issued), and has stalled since March 2025. I-526/I-526E adjudication volume was already low in 2024 and has fallen since then (with just 219 processed in FY2025 Q2). Meanwhile, FY2025 Q2 yielded another bumper crop of new investors with 1,918 I-526/I-526E filings, bringing the post-RIA total to over 10,000 investors. As those 10K investors become 20-30K visa applicants, they’ll overwhelm the 3K annual limit for set-aside visas. Approval rates remain high, which is good for individuals but bad for the backlog. The Visa Bulletin remains current, which is good for people filing I-485 but bad for the backlog. The median processing time for completed I-526E is low (just 11.7 months in Q2) — which is nice for the 3% of I-526E completed in Q2, but no indicator for the 97% of cases not completed. I am interested to note the 31 post-RIA Unreserved visas issued in FY2024 — contradictions/exceptions to what I’d assumed to be the rule: that Unreserved visas get issued in priority date order with the pre-RIA backlog going first.

Data Insights for Regional Centers

Regional centers have facilitated an influx of over 10,000*$800,000=$8 billion dollars from EB-5 investment since 2022. This is great for the U.S. economy and job creation — and also 8x more investment than underwritten by the visa incentive (considering about 3,000 annual set-aside visas able to accommodate about 1,200 annual investors, or about $960M investment).

Slow processing times and low visa issuance are a win for capital raises, because they delay the day of public reckoning with backlogs. The Visa Bulletin can continue to show its encouraging “C” for Rural, High, Unemployment and Infrastructure so long as only a trickle of investors are getting I-526E approvals and becoming visa applicants, while the majority of the backlog stays hidden in I-526E processing. (If I-526E filed through 2024 had all been approved by now, and if DOS were issuing visas, then today’s Visa Bulletin would have final action dates for every country in High Unemployment, and for China and India in Rural.)

Who has to care about the hidden backlog? Or about continuing to accept in three months more investors than could possibly get visas in a year (as happened in FY2025 Q2)? Is it right to offer “immigrant investment” while saying “I honestly have no idea when you’ll be able to immigrate based on this investment”? And even for people who care, what can be done? Could any data milestone make the market/industry collectively decide “this is has gone too far, let’s choose to pause?” Some of us have made this call individually, but there’s no mechanism for the market to regulate itself.

If only EB-5 could get more visas! The program has an outsize economic impact, contributing $184 billion to U.S. GDP from investment in 2016-2019 alone, according to the recent Fourth Economy Economic Impact Analysis. Fourth Economy calculated that EB-5 created an average of 45 American jobs from each EB-5 investor, and has potential to generate 3.1 million American jobs annually if only supported by sufficient visas.

FY2024 Annual Report Summary

FY2025 Q2 Processing Data

FY2025 I-485 Trend

FY2025 Consular Processing Trend

Progress of Rural and High Unemployment Visa Issuance since 2022

[UPDATE: The preliminary data in this post has now been replaced by final reports quoted above in Major Data Update (FY2024 Visa Report, FY2025 Q2 data, FY2025 I-485 and visa progress, visa interview timing)]

Multiple readers asked me this question about the updated EB-5 backlog analysis I published last week. Why use 2025 as “Year 0” for Rural and High Unemployment visa issuance? Haven’t Rural and High Unemployment EB-5 visas been set aside every year since 2022? Why assume that almost no investors with priority dates since 2022 have visas yet? Is it right to estimate the pipeline visa backlog as of January 2025 as equal to nearly everyone who’s ever filed I-526E, plus their family members?

Unfortunately, TEA visa issuance is indeed only starting to pick up steam as of FY2025. The thousands of Rural and High Unemployment visas available in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024 are now irrelevant to backlog calculations, because they were mostly not issued. (Indeed most TEA visas theoretically available in FY2025 are also on track to not be issued, but the carryover rule means that FY26 may provide another chance to issue FY25 TEA visas.) The following table summarizes my view of Rural and High Unemployment Visa issuance to date.

Actual FY22-FY23 Visas IssuedEstimated FY2024 Visas Issued via ConsulatesEstimated FY2024 Visas Issued via AOSEstimated FY2025 Visas Issued to date via Consulates (Oct 24-Mar 25)Estimated FY2025 Visas Issued to date via AOS (Oct-Dec 2024)Estimated Total TEA Visas Issued 2022 to early 2025
China Rural06913180208
India Rural0032122670
ROW Rural03224418267
Total Rural (RR, NR)09125287124545
China HU001431853
India HU0021121447
ROW HU04168441145
Total High Unemployment (RH, NH)045112763245

The numbers for FY2022 and FY2023 are actual, according to Annual Reports of the Visa Office. Figures for FY2024 and FY2025 to date are still estimates, since litigation has (reportedly) delayed publication of the 2024 Annual Report. We can estimate consular visa issuance since 2023 by summing up monthly data in the Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Statistics reports (currently available through March 2025). And it’s possible to roughly estimate adjustment of status visa issuance by comparing monthly reports for “Pending Applications for Employment-Based Preference Categories” (currently available to January 2025 on the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page.) When the final numbers are published, I expect them to be higher than my estimates from the partial/preliminary reports, particularly for AOS. But the bottom line is clear: we are looking at 100s and not 1000s of Rural and High Unemployment visas issued to date. Which means that we do have to assume most Rural and High Unemployment investors since 2022 are still queued up waiting for visas.

Reserved visa issuance to date has been so low due to processing delay at USCIS and Department of State. People can’t get reserved visas until they can get visa interviews or I-485 processing, which in turn can’t happen until investor I-526/I-526E are approved, which in turn can’t happen until I-956F project applications are approved. With I-956Fs finally getting processed in volume in 2024, we’re starting to see more I-526E approvals and more visa issuance as of 2025. I’m including charts for USCIS processing and consular processing to date, and a table illustrating how monthly I-485 inventory reports can support a rough estimate of AOS visa issuance. For the most comprehensive available view of approval status of Rural and High Unemployment petitions, see the I-526E adjudication data by I-526E filing date and TEA category just published by AIIA “AIIA FOIA Series: Post RIA Petition Approval Statistics for January 2025 (May 16, 2025). As time permits I’ll publish an in-depth post on the USCIS and DOS operational factors that affect EB-5 timing, and prospects for forthcoming processing times. (I regret having more bad news to share about USCIS staffing and resource cuts at the Investor Program Office. And I wish I knew what was preventing consulates from scheduling post-RIA visa interviews for all qualified applicants.)

I’ve updated the Excel files linked to my EB-5 Timing Page. I fixed the first link (which for one day last week linked to an old analysis file instead of to the correct data collection file). And I added Progress and Visa Supply tabs to the EB-5 Backlog Analysis file to help clarify visa supply questions.

EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025 — UPDATED

[UPDATE: There is now an updated version of this post as of March 2026.]

— Original post —

I have completely updated the EB-5 Backlog Analysis linked to my EB-5 Timing Page. The new version is more streamlined, adds scenarios, and reflects the latest available data, including 2025 AIIA FOIA data for actual I-526/I-526E receipts by country and TEA category through January 2025. This article replaces my previous post on EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025, which had assessed visa backlogs based on data published through mid 2024.  

My previous analysis foresaw 2025 Rural and High Unemployment investors from China and India potentially getting visas from 2029 to the early 2030s — considering the backlog visibility in mid 2024, and hopes for high visa issuance in 2025.

What has changed? We now know that the pipeline backlog for Reserved visas has been rapidly expanded by new investors, while advancing more slowly than expected through USCIS processing. This adds up to more severe wait time outlook for China and India, which now have more people queued up for fewer visas available. My updated analysis highlights backlogs within each popular EB-5 lane (Unreserved, Rural, High Unemployment), and considers how switching between lanes could optimize visa availability. I also updated the model with a tool to model potential visa number wait times for a variety of priority dates.

The big picture of EB-5 demand shows approximately 60,000 people in the pipeline for visas available at a base rate of 10,000 per year. (“In the pipeline” means people associated with investors who started the EB-5 process by filing I-526/I-526E, and now somewhere in the process between petition filing and receiving a conditional green card.) The EB-5 demand picture is further complicated by multiple TEA and country categories, which affect which applicant could qualify for which visa.

Table 1 summarizes the estimated EB-5 backlog as of January 2025. This includes legacy EB-5 applicants who started the process before RIA passed in March 15, 2022, and now still waiting for Unreserved visas. And the backlog includes nearly all EB-5 applicants with priority dates since March 2022, because Rural and High Unemployment visa issuance is just now finally getting started as of FY2025.

Let’s start with a few incorrect ways to interpret Table 1 above. It’s easy to get confused by these factors: how country caps do and do not limit visa allocation, options for TEA investors to change lanes and choose Unreserved visas, how wait time estimates apply to a variety of priority dates, and whether or not investors born outside China or India need to worry about visa availability.

Incorrect Interpretation of Table 1Correction
X — The Rural visa wait time is 4 years for a January 2025 investor, because by January there were 4x more pipeline Rural applicants than base annual Rural visas.Correction — Consider country-specific visa allocation, not only total category supply and demand. The country cap limits affecting China and India EB-5 mean that the expected Rural visa wait would be much longer than 4 years for China and India, and less for applicants from ROW countries.
X — The visa wait time for the last China Unreserved investor is 64 years, because China Unreserved demand exceeds annual Unreserved visa supply under the 7% country cap by 64x.Correction — The 7% country cap is a base, not a necessarily a ceiling, for high-demand countries. China has been able to count on getting many more than 7% of EB-5 visas because rest-of-world demand is normally never sufficient to use the maximum Unreserved visas available on a priority basis to ROW.
X — The visa wait time for a China Rural investor is 38 years, because China Rural demand exceeds annual Rural visa supply under the 7% country cap by 38x.Correction — 38-year visa wait times would only be possible if demand continued to grow and all Rural investors ultimately claimed Rural visas. But this is unlikely — given that Rural investors also have access to Unreserved visas that will be available to China in much less than 38 years.
X — If I wasn’t born in China or India, there are no limits on the EB-5 visas available to me. I don’t need to worry about backlogs or retrogression.Correction — Only China, India, Mexico, and the Philippines are subject to country-specific visa limits — but anyone can still run up against category limits. If 3,000+ High Unemployment Rest of World applicants request HU visas in a year with <1,000 HU visas available, then 2,000+ of those ROW applicants will be stopped by the Visa Bulletin and need to wait for a visa number. This scenario is on track to happen, given pipeline ROW demand for HU.
X — If I’m a Canada-born High Unemployment investor with January 2025 priority date, my visa wait time is 4 years, because ROW demand for High Unemployment visas exceeds maximum annual HU visa supply to ROW by 4x.Correction — 4-year visa wait times for Rest of World High Unemployment investors would only be the reality if all HU investors ultimately claimed HU visas. But this is unlikely — given that HU investors also have the option to request Unreserved visas, and Unreserved will be available to ROW in less than 4 years.
X — If I’m a Canada-born Rural investor with January 2025 priority date, my visa wait time is 1 year, because all ROW Rural applicants could fit in one year of ROW Rural visa availability.Correction — Regardless of visa supply, the Canada-born Rural investor will likely wait far longer than a year for a visa due to the separate issue of USCIS and consular processing delay.  The real-life wait for a visa is the wait for a visa number (as a function of quota limits) or wait for USCIS/DOS processing (as a function of operational constraints), whichever proves longer.
X — If I’m an investor from China or India since January 2025, I have a chance to get an EB-5 visa in less than four years.Correction — Considering every option to optimize visa availability across TEA categories and around country limits, I still see no clear path for a 2025 investor from China or India to get an EB-5 visa in less than four years. Except by lucky non-FIFO processing, or unless the as-yet undocumented Infrastructure category proves to have had low demand.
X — If I’m an investor from China or India in 2025, I’ll definitely qualify for an EB-5 visa sooner as a Rural investor than as a High Unemployment investor.Correction — At some point, the expected wait for an Unreserved visa will be less than the wait for either a Rural or HU visa. When that point is reached, the initial choice between Rural or HU investment becomes less important because the investor may count on ultimately requesting an Unreserved visa regardless of where he invested. This point may already have been reached. (For China and India-born investors in 2025, Unreserved will almost certainly be available earlier than HU visas. Unreserved may or may not be available earlier than Rural visas depending on future Rural demand from ROW.)
X — There’s no demand or backlog yet for Infrastructure visas.Correction — Infrastructure investors exist, according to anecdotal evidence. Table 1 is only blank for the Infrastructure category because USCIS hasn’t reported data for it yet.
X — Table 1 describes backlogs and wait times that apply to me, regardless of when I started the EB-5 process.Correction — Table 1 gives a picture of the backlog as of one date – January 31, 2025 – and thus applies specifically to people whose priority date is 1/31/2025. Someone with an earlier priority date faces a shorter backlog/wait time, and someone with a later priority date faces a longer backlog/wait time.
X — Table 1 is not valid, because the Base Annual Visas line does not include extra carryover visas.Rural and High Unemployment visa availability in 2022-2024 is not counted in the current backlog reduction calculation because — although technically available — those visas were not issued. Reserved visa issuance is getting started as of 2025, though still at a low volume despite high limit. I decided that simply counting base annual visas from 2025 can make sense, because the future above-base visas thanks to carryover may ultimately (approximately) counterbalance initial below-base visa issuance from this year due to processing delays.

(If you’d like a refresher on country caps and options for TEA investors to request Unreserved visas following I-526E approval, see Q5-Q14 from my Q&A published by CanAm last year.)

In revising my backlog analysis model, I tried to account for country caps, consider scope for visa allocation above country caps, account for the possibility of changing lanes between Reserved and Unreserved categories, model scenarios depending on whether applicants elect to change lanes, and then replicate all that for a variety of priority dates. Whew. Here’s a screenshot of summary projections for a January 31, 2025 priority date, showing the very different estimates that result depending on what assumptions one makes about future applicant behavior in choosing between Reserved and Unreserved visas.

Notes on the Scenarios:

  • “Scenario 1” shows the maximum potential impact of country cap limits. The estimated wait time is the number that results from simply dividing pipeline demand by base annual visa availability in each category. Scenario 1 shows the wait time if all applicants stayed in their TEA lanes, and if China and India were actually limited to 7% of visas in each lane. This scenario could theoretically come true for High Unemployment unless and until many HU investors start selecting Unreserved visas, because HU has enough ROW applicants to limit China and India to 7% long-term. It could come true for Rural if future ROW Rural demand increases, plus all Rural investors ultimately request Rural visas. But this scenario won’t come true in real life, because HU and Rural applicants are free to make the Unreserved switch if desired. And obviously no one’s really waiting 68 years for a visa.
  • “Scenario 2” models an unlikely but best-case scenario for China and India.  What if 100% of Rest of World TEA investors switch to request Unreserved visas, leaving the entire Rural and High Unemployment visa allocations to be shared by China and India? In that case, China and India could get Rural and HU visas in FIFO order, without cap limits. Even in this best case, there could be a 4-year Rural visa wait and 7-year High Unemployment visa wait for January 2025 investors, based on the number of China and India-born applicants in the pipeline at that point compared with annual supply. And this case is unlikely to be fully realized, because ROW investors will (at least initially, before HU retrogression starts) lack personal motivation to request Unreserved visa allocation.
  • “Scenario 3” models the outlook for China and India Rural if ROW Rural investors do take Rural visas, but the number of ROW Rural investors never grows enough to take all of the Rural visas technically available to ROW. For Scenario 3, I noted that ROW Rural I-526E filings in CY2024 were only high enough to absorb about 70% of the annual base allocation available to ROW on a priority basis. So Scenario 3 shows the “what if” Rural applicants from China and India can count on their own 7% each of annual Rural visas plus 30% of the Rural visas available first to ROW. I consider Scenario 3 relatively realistic, especially for Chinese and Indian investors with early Rural priority dates – but not dependable, given that ROW demand has been trending up. There’s no Scenario 3 for High Unemployment, because ROW demand for High Unemployment already well exceeds maximum visas available to ROW.
  • “Scenario 4” gives the estimated visa number wait for a January 2025 Rural or High Unemployment investor who takes the first available Unreserved visa. The Scenario 4 estimate starts from quite pessimistic assumptions (about the longest I think the pre-RIA backlog could take to clear, the fewest Reserved visas issued in the meantime, and the most people jumping at an Unreserved switch.) But even with this pessimism, Scenario 4 might be the best visa timing hope for China and India-born investors with 2025 and later priority dates.  At least, it’s a potential ceiling to keep in mind. For example as a January 2025 India-born investor looking at the above table, I’d be thinking “So my wait time for a visa number could theoretically be as long as 12 years or as short as 3.5 years in the Rural category, depending on behavior of other Rural investors – but in the worst case I should be able to fall back on the chance for an Unreserved visa in about 7 years.” (We may significantly revise Scenario 4 when the Department of State finally publishes the 2024 NVC Wait List and 2024 Annual Report. I’m told that these reports, which should’ve been published last month, are still pending due to litigation.)

Go ahead and download the EB-5 Backlog Analysis Excel file from the Timing Page to follow the data and formulas behind all these estimates, and to recalculate for different priority dates. You can also experiment with different family size assumptions. (Estimates for priority dates before January 2025 use a xlookup function with the table of historical monthly I-526E filing data. Estimates for dates since January incorporate a guess that future demand will replicate the CY2024 average — but you can change this assumption too if you like.) The model will have to be revised in the future when we get actual numbers after January. The model assumes steady monthly demand for prediction, but real-life demand fluctuation can end up making a huge difference in wait time for applicants with priority dates just weeks apart. If you notice any errors in my Excel, please email suzanne@lucidtext.com. I regularly edit the file as I find mistakes, get new data, or think of additional considerations.

I realize that the conclusions alone don’t look very helpful/actionable. (“My wait time could theoretically be between 4 and 38 years– what?”) And with so many moving parts and future assumptions involved, no one wait time estimate is firmly reliable. For example, the major question for all new China-born and India-born investors is how long it will take the legacy pre-RIA Unreserved backlog to clear. That time could prove years earlier than the pessimistic estimate in this model if on-going ROW Unreserved visa usage proves lower than I currently estimate based on recent trends, or if many legacy applicants recorded in old data reports have actually dropped out by now (or will). But even with the questionable conclusions, I hope that the step-by-step process and calculations that I laid out help to illuminate how wait-time-shaping factors work. And I hope that the bottom line is clear: EB-5 needs more visas.

Please join and donate to AIIA so that we can keep getting data to support ongoing analysis.

If you’d like a personalized consultation to discuss the analysis, you can schedule a Paid Timing Consultation here.

You’re invited to join me at a webinar that Carolyn Lee is hosting on May 30 at 2 ET: Latest EB-5 Numbers: What Do They Say About EB-5 Visa Backlog? This topic is so complicated that it’s easy to get lost in the weeds and lose a sense of urgency. I appreciate Carolyn’s efforts to keep EB-5 backlogs in focus as an urgent issue.

And a final caveat: my analysis has to assume FIFO order and average results. In my analysis, “wait for a January 31, 2025 priority date to get a visa” equals “time required for everyone pending in the same queue with PD before 1/31/2025 to get visas.” But real life is not quite FIFO, as illustrated in AIIA’s important new data release: AIIA FOIA Series: Post RIA Petition Approval Statistics for January 2025. The distribution of approvals in AIIA data shows that a few petitions are getting luckily picked out and processed earlier than others. The lucky few who reach the visa stage early/out of order have a chance to snag a visa before others with earlier priority dates, and before the date that would be calculated in my model.  

I Sing the New Gate, Gleaming

I’m about to publish a serious post explaining my updated analysis of the EB-5 visa backlog and wait time situation. But while I labor over that presentation, I can’t help a quick reaction to two emails in my inbox today. One from Google Alerts, flagging the latest social media comments about the Trump Gold Card proposal. And another from the Academy of American Poets, saying they’ve been notified by the NEA of a grant terminated because “fostering public interest in poetry no longer aligns with the Administration’s agenda.” Okay then.

I haven’t talked much about the Gold Card proposal because Congress seems disinclined to make it legal. And surely President Trump as a champion of border sovereignty wouldn’t actually finalize an extralegal pathway to admission, with Howard Lutnick and Elon Musk in the role of coyotes, no matter what’s said on X. But I do worry that the ongoing Gold Card talk could tarnish EB-5, which is in the law, not for the ultra-wealthy, and a jobs program not a golden visa program. And being also a fan of American poetry, I enlisted AI to draft a Gold Card comment in the form of an homage to Walt Whitman.

ChatGPT, please write a poem in the style of Walt Whitman for the Trump Gold Card. The Gold Card is a proposed pathway for foreign nationals to gain admission to the United States in exchange for a $5 million cash payment facilitated by Elon Musk and Howard Lutnick. The Gold Card is different from EB-5, a form of legal immigration that does not sell green cards but requires investing in a business that creates jobs.

Certainly. Below is a poem in the style of Walt Whitman, evoking his grand, rolling cadence and expansive vision as it contemplates the Trump Gold Card in contrast to the traditional ideals of American immigration:


“I Sing the New Gate, Gleaming”

I sing the nation—its cities and vast rivers, its ports and fields,
I sing the immigrant—her hands rough from labor, his eyes bright with the sweat of promise.
But now I behold another vision:
Not Ellis Island’s lantern, not the judge’s oath, nor the slow bloom of lawful toil—
But a card—golden, shining, swift in passage.

Lo! What is this, with luster not from liberty but lucre?
The Trump Gold Card!
Brass-banded invitation to the banquet of the Republic,
Price: five million and no questions asked.

By Elon the celestial dealer of dreams and rockets,
By Lutnick the ledger-bearer of the high towers of finance—
The gate swings open without a line, without the grind,
No job promised, no child lifted, no sweat pressed into concrete.

This is no EB-5, that old contract of hope,
Where green cards grew not from vaults but from vineyards,
From startups in Detroit and factories in Fresno,
From immigrants who gave and gave, and built what they would one day call home.

But the Gold Card?
O America, whose flag once waved to masses yearning to breathe free,
Do you now raise your arms only to the richest stranger?

I see them coming—not with papers or prayers,
But with wire transfers,
With yachts idling in the harbor of justice.

I do not scorn the foreigner, no—
But I lament the barter of dignity,
The bypass of law not for mercy but for millions.

O nation, you who once took pride in the forge,
In the welder —
Will you trade that fire for the glint of bullion?

Yet still I sing, because I must.
For I see too the quiet ones who still arrive by EB-5,
Whose feet kiss our soil
Not as buyers, but as builders.

Let the Gold Card gleam,
But let us ask what is gained—and what is lost—
When a nation sells its doors.

EB-5 processing volumes fall in USCIS FY2025 Q1 data report

And now, the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page has finally published performance data for the first quarter of FY2025 (October to December 2024). The data shows a strong start to implementing the new administration’s immigration agenda. Last time around, it took two years for USCIS staffing and policy changes to translate into sluggish EB-5 form processing. This time, IPO preemptively cut its processing productivity in half even before the inauguration. Maybe October to December was an aberration, with no political connection and no trend to worry about. But at least for the one quarter, every EB-5 form suffered. I had expected USCIS to start shifting more resources to I-526E, given the visa urgency and dwindling I-526 workload, but this did not happen through the end of last year. Meanwhile, as previewed in AIIA’s data by country and TEA category, I-526E filings continued to shoot up through the end of 2024.

The FY2025 Q1 report is notable for including, for the first time, median processing times for post-RIA I-526 and I-526E.

Be cautious in interpreting the Processing Time number, which is not necessarily predictive! Footnote 6 to the Processing Times column explains: “Processing times are defined as the number of months it took for an application, petition, or request to be processed from receipt to completion in a given time period. The number of months presented is the median which is the time it took to complete 50% of all the cases processed in the quarter.” I’m very happy for the 50% of recently-completed I-526E that experienced a processing time of less than 12 months. However, 50% of the 202 completions in FY25 Q1 is just 101 forms — barely 1% of the inventory. How long will it take to process the 6,922 I-526E that remained pending at the end of last quarter? If USCIS kept going at the FY25 Q1 processing pace, then it would take 6,922/202=34 quarters=8.6 years. In order to get through the pre-2025 I-526E inventory in 12 months from now, USCIS would have to increase quarterly I-526E processing volume to 6,922/4=1,730 completions. On the other hand, the reported median processing time of 19.2 months for I-829 may be reasonably predictive, so long as USCIS can keep processing the I-829 inventory (7,553 at last count) at a rate of at least 1,000 completions per quarter.

New I-526E Data to January 2025

And now, we finally know what’s been happening with EB-5 demand and I-526/I-526E adjudications since mid 2024. See AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for January 2025. Thank you to AIIA, Galati Law, and the Freedom of Information Act! USCIS has not published any EB-5 data since September 2024, so we welcome this trove of new information about I-526 and I-526E receipts, approvals, and denials by country and TEA category through January 2025.

I will shortly revise my backlog analysis to incorporate this new information. My previous analysis made optimistic wait time estimates based on optimistic assumptions: that future EB-5 demand would remain at the level documented as of mid 2024, and that USCIS and Department of State processing would allow issuing available visas. My revised analysis must now downgrade these estimates. We now know that in fact, EB-5 demand shot up through the beginning of 2025, while processing volumes remained quite low.

The AIIA FOIA showed that “only 351 HUA and 1,126 rural petitions have been approved as of January 2025.” That’s likely too low for a year with 2,200 HUA and 4,400 rural visas available, and considering that visa interviews take months to schedule. If there aren’t enough applicants to claim available FY2025 set-aside visas, that means that the visa bulletin gets to stay “current” for a longer time (good news for concurrent filing), but some set-aside numbers will be permanently lost, Rest of World applicants will get more time to accumulate and crowd out China/India applicants, and expected visa wait times will lengthen.

Meanwhile, the AIIA FOIA showed the count of filed investor petitions reaching 5,191 High Unemployment and 4,329 Rural by the end of January 2025. That’s conservatively 10-11x annual HU visa availability and 4-5x annual Rural visa availability (considering that these investors may get I-526E approval and be joined by spouses and/or children to claim visas). Those are fearsome queues to enter the back of, for a new investor today. If a 2025 High Unemployment investor gets a visa in less than 10 years or a Rural investor gets a visa in less than 5 years, it will be thanks to country caps (allowing minority country investors to move ahead of earlier priority dates from China and India) and the possibility of category-switching (with Unreserved being an alternate lane as congestion builds in the TEA lanes.) I’m now anxious to get updated information on the pre-RIA backlog for Unreserved visas, to better assess Unreserved visas as a potential fallback for new HU and Rural investors.

Regional Centers will want to grapple with the fact that the coming 10+ years of HU visas and 4+ years of Rural visas have already been sold, even as a significant Unreserved backlog remains. Unless and until visa relief is possible, what’s left to offer is a chance for Rest-of-World EB-5 investors to cut the queue in front of earlier but cap-limited China-born and India-born investors. Keeping the “immigrant” in “immigrant investment” will require hard work for visa relief.

EB-5 visa issuance in February 2025

Finally a bit of data to report: Department of State has added Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance statistics for consular processing in February 2025. I made a few charts to highlight EB-5 numbers.

February data shows set-aside visa issuance continuing to pick up steam but very gradually, with visa issuance still extremely low in context of set-aside visas available this year. If this trend continues, then I guess that Rural and High Unemployment visa supply may not be maximized this fiscal year, and thus Rural and High Unemployment may not get visa bulletin dates this year. I may revise this guess if and when USCIS ever starts reporting data again for I-526E approvals (indicating how many people are potentially qualified for visas) and I-485 approvals (indicating the number of visas being allocated through status adjustment). USCIS 2025 data reports are now very delayed, but I keep checking — hoping that the USCIS Office of Performance and Quality still exists! Also waiting on the delayed 2024 NVC waitlist report. If set-aside visa issuance remains low throughout FY2025, that would be good news for the concurrent filing window, and bad news for the pipeline backlog — especially for applicants from China and India who depend on getting through the visa gate as soon as possible before more rest of world applicants have a chance to get I-526E approvals. Actual visa wait times could be worse than calculated in my EB5 Backlog Analysis model in case of low set-aside visa issuance. (I’ll revise the entire model when the next USCIS and NVC reports finally come out.)

Looking at Unreserved visa issuance through consulates, I note that Department of State remains on track to issue all Unreserved visas available for the fiscal year. Good! But the rate of Unreserved visa issuance to rest-of-world countries did not increase in February — as I think it should have, given that ROW applicants are so numerous that DOS might even have to impose a ROW Unreserved a cutoff date this year (according to the April 2025 visa bulletin note). A number of consulates seem to be having problems with scheduling EB-5 interviews — for example in Nigeria, which has many EB-5 applicants but no EB-5 interviews at all this year. Can consulates be given a push to act on EB-5 cases? On the bright side, low EB-5 visa issuance to ROW meant that China-born applicants were able to continue to pick up “otherwise unused” Unreserved visas in February.

In other news, IIUSA has posted a letter from their lobbyist on advocacy efforts.

Second Joint Status Report in Sustainment Litigation

George Orwell defined an important political skill called doublethink: “To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them…” This skill is adaptive in many situations these days, including for the EB-5 sustainment litigation IIUSA vs. DHS et al. (previously discussed here).

The second Joint Status Report in the sustainment litigation has now been released. In JSR2, IIUSA asks the Court for a ruling that would apparently revert to the legacy sustainment period tied to an investor’s conditional residency. IIUSA has shared JSR2 in a blog post that states: “Once again, IIUSA reaffirmed that we do not support reverting to a sustainment period tied to an investor’s conditional residency.”

Let’s take a look at JSR2, starting with the first paragraph:

The parties continued to discuss a potential resolution of this matter but have been unable to reach agreement. Plaintiff respectfully requests that the Court resolve the pending motions before it; Defendants respectfully request that the Court hold the case in abeyance while Defendants engage in rulemaking that will resolve this litigation within the estimated timeframe as described below.

Here USCIS (Defendant) is requesting what IIUSA (Plaintiff) had offered in the first JSR – to hold the lawsuit in abeyance pending rulemaking. Abeyance could be an effective strategy to avoid falling back on legacy CPR sustainment period, because abeyance would close the gap between ruling (which could simply void the post-RIA change, if the Court rules as IIUSA had suggested) and rulemaking (which could define a modified new sustainment rule). When IIUSA first offered abeyance in JSR1, I had thought that that IIUSA truly wanted to avoid near-term reversion to the legacy sustainment policy.

But in JSR2, IIUSA declines to accept litigation abeyance because rulemaking can take a long time. USCIS was able to offer a start date for the rulemaking process (November 2025), but not a completion date. IIUSA explains that they do not want the lawsuit to be held in abeyance until rulemaking because that would mean “no change in the status quo between now and then” and thus “no relief in connection with bringing this lawsuit.” Apparently, Plaintiff is primarily fighting for a profitable change to the status quo EB-5 sustainment requirement. Plaintiff does not want to have to wait for a change for as long as it could take to make via the proper notice-and-comment rulemaking process that it had claimed to be fighting for.

IIUSA rests its case by asking the Court to “resolve the pending motions before it.” I assume that means asking the Court to sign off on IIUSA’s [Proposed] Order on Summary Judgment, whose content is simply to order “that USCIS’s action changing the investment sustainment period for EB-5 immigrant investors is vacated, held unlawful, and set aside.” I further reason that the single action of vacating a change puts us back to the sustainment period that existed before the change.

On the other hand, the USCIS side of JSR2 does argue against reverting to legacy sustainment period. First, because stakeholders would predictably react to the unfairness. As USCIS contends:

Applying regulatory requirements based on the pre-amendment version of the INA to investors who filed petitions for classification after the enactment of RIA and amendment of the INA would result in such investors also having investment sustainment periods with unknown future end dates based on uncontrollable variability in visa availability despite the plain language of the post-amendment version of the INA, and would expose Defendants to significant risk of litigation from such investors with potentially contrary judicial rulings.

Secondly, there is some “fact of the matter” here. RIA did make statutory changes, however one interprets the language. The USCIS portion of the JSR concludes:

4. In the event the Court does not hold this case in abeyance, Defendants are amenable to revising the existing website guidance to restate the statutory changes and amendments to the INA made by the RIA. This would also resolve Plaintiff’s claims to the extent that anything in the existing guidance goes beyond a mere restatement of applicable statutory provisions.

How can regional centers and investors deal with the uncertainty created by litigation challenges to USCIS guidance? I wish I knew. It’s so material for deal-planning, structuring, marketing, management, and investing to have a ballpark idea of how long EB-5 funds need to stay invested. I don’t know when and how this open question will be resolved. I sincerely regret the reputational damage that this lawsuit has caused for IIUSA, which occupies such an important place in the industry and needs a strong, respected, and unifying voice. And I’m ashamed of the regional centers who chose not to sue in their own names or own their support for this shameful and compromising if very profitable effort, but using IIUSA as a mask to push it forward.

Set-aside visa issuance and demand

As someone alarmed by the EB-5 set-aside visa pipeline backlogs already accumulated as of 2024, I have had two hopes for 2025: high set-aside visa issuance and reasonably low new I-526E filings. I want to see as many as possible rural and high unemployment visas issued this year, taking a maximum bite from the backlogs, and I don’t want to see the timing outlook worsen considerably. But the reality seems to be otherwise. It appears that the Trump administration’s threats to EB-5 have not dampened but are actually spurring new EB-5 demand — contradicting my guesses from a couple weeks ago. And the latest published monthly visa issuance data (as of January 2025) shows set-aside visa issuance remaining extremely low, at least through consulates. The following chart illustrates the numbers informing my current impression that new EB-5 set-aside investors in coming months can likely still expect a “current” visa bulletin (due to distance between FY2025 visa availability and visa issuance so far) but may also face a dire wait for a visa number (due to distance between pipeline applicants and forthcoming visa availability overall). It’s so tough to make educated decisions when the visa situation is so dynamic, and lacking real-time data, but I keep trying to keep a sense of the big picture in view.

EB-5 Retrogression in April 2025 Visa Bulletin

The April 2025 Visa Bulletin has retrogressed the EB5 Unreserved Final Action Dates for China and India, and concludes with a note indicating that Rest of the World Unreserved may also get a final action date this year.

E.  RETROGRESSION OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED FINAL ACTION DATES FOR CHINA AND INDIA 

Increased demand and number use by China and India in the EB-5 unreserved visa categories, combined with increased Rest of World demand and number use, made it necessary to retrogress the final action dates to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2025 annual limits.  Please note that it may also become necessary to establish a final action date for Rest of World countries if demand and number use continues to increase. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.

I read this announcement as good news for Unreserved visa wait times overall, since it means that the process is working efficiently. When I expected the process to work inefficiently, I thought that USCIS would slow-walk rest-of-world petition processing and consulates would slow-walk visa issuance, with the result that the visa bulletin would not need to move to add an extra constraint. Now I see that the visa bulletin is having to jump for Unreserved, which tells me that DOS has apparently already efficiently issued most EB-5 Unreserved visas available this year to China and India, while USCIS and NVC are maximizing the number of Rest of World applicants able to claim visas. ROW could only reach a limit this year if DOS manages to issue more ROW EB-5 visas this year than it ever has in the past. The more ROW visas issued this year, the fewer ROW applicants left for next year, so maxing out ROW visas this year would be good for ROW. However, high ROW visa demand directly corresponds to limits on China, so Chinese EB-5 applicants may receive thousands fewer visas this year than I had hoped.

As a reminder, I have estimated at least 8,100 pre-RIA ROW applicants in the pipeline for EB-5 Unreserved visas. This is greater than the number of visas remaining to ROW in FY2025 (given the 11,470 Unreserved visas available in FY2025, of which China has already absorbed over 2,500 and India can claim 803 under country caps). The ROW queue for Unreserved visas may also be expanded by post-RIA ROW investors fleeing from High Unemployment and Rural backlogs. Though this flight may be reversed, if and when ROW Unreserved gets a final action date while set-aside categories remain “Current.” (For earlier predictions of future visa bulletin movement for China and India, calculated as a function of demand/supply balance, see the “Pre-RIA China” and “Pre-RIA India” tabs in the EB-5 Visa Supply and Demand Analysis workbook linked to the EB-5 Timing page. I may now need to revise the Pre-RIA China tab with a more pessimistic estimate based on assuming more ROW visas/fewer China visas in FY2025.)

The April 2025 Visa Bulletin does not include a corresponding note for the EB-5 Set Aside categories, which suggests that USCIS and DOS are not working as efficiently to advance and issue visas to the High Unemployment and Rural backlogs.

I look forward to what the next Chatting with Charlie webinar has to say about the April Visa Bulletin.

(In other news, the spending bill to fund the government past March 15 appears to be not, after all, a potential vehicle for a new “Gold Card” or EB-5 changes. The House Appropriations Committee released a draft of the The Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025 on Friday, emphasizing that it contains “no poison pills or unrelated riders – the bill is simple: extend funding and certainty for the nation.”)

Joint Status Report in sustainment lawsuit

7/30 UPDATE: See Good news (CIS Ombudsman, Sustainment litigation, good faith investor litigation, FOIA on Security Checks)

— ORIGINAL POST —

I am happy to see that the February 27 Joint Status Report in the IIUSA sustainment lawsuit addresses the issues that I raised last month. The JSR did not conclude with agreement — IIUSA and USCIS now have a March 21 deadline to try again. But IIUSA took care in its side of the February 27 JSR to speak to industry concerns.

To address concerns about rulemaking delay and negative effects on the market, IIUSA proposes holding the sustainment lawsuit in abeyance pending USCIS rulemaking. If it were practically possible, this could allow jumping straight from the current USCIS interpretation to a new sustainment rule – leaving no gap to be stuck with the legacy sustainment regulation. IIUSA suggests that post-RIA investors prior to the settlement could “receive the benefit” of USCIS policy at the time, while investors after the settlement would be subject to the concurrently-finalized new regulation. “While IIUSA does not believe that this [the current USCIS] policy is lawful because of the way in which it was adopted, IIUSA has no interest in disrupting the interests of investors who relied in good faith on the USCIS policy.”

In its side of the JSR, USCIS did not comment on its ability to give investors benefit from pre-existing policy if the court ultimately chooses, as IIUSA had requested, to vacate and hold that policy unlawful. USCIS did respond to concerns about rulemaking timing, stating that “USCIS considers this matter to be a regulatory priority at this time and does not anticipate rule promulgation to take several years.” New regulations to fully implement RIA are in progress, but USCIS was unable to promise IIUSA a specific “limited timeframe” for completion. “In light of the recent change in administration, USCIS requires additional time for its new leadership to review the proposed regulations, familiarize themselves with this litigation, and assess the appropriate next steps for the regulatory process.” To put it mildly.

What are we trying to accomplish? IIUSA states in the JSR that “IIUSA ultimately wishes for a sustainment rule that would mirror the intent of Congress, as clearly articulated expressed by the co-sponsors of the RIA in their letter to USCIS Chief Emmel dated February 2, 2024.” The IIUSA statement refers to a letter by Representatives Greg Stanton and Brian Fitzpatrick – who claim in their letter to be “lead authors” of RIA. As it happened, Senators Grassley and Leahy were RIA’s lead authors while Stanton and Fitzpatrick co-sponsored a companion bill mirroring the Grassley/Leahy bill in the House. But in any case, IIUSA filed the 2024 Stanton/Fitzpatrick letter with the Court, and this letter calls for “a fair and reasonable investment holding period, a minimum of at least five years, for all EB-5 investments made at any time after March 15, 2022, when RIA became law.”

How likely is new USCIS rulemaking to land on the five-year minimum sustainment rule that is IIUSA’s “ultimate wish”? Such a rule could be nice for good projects, but could USCIS make it? How could USCIS require a fixed minimum investment period greater than USCIS’s minimum period of oversight over the EB-5 process? As designed by Congress, the minimum EB-5 process is less than three years from inception to filing of the last petition. RIA defined processing time goals of less than a year for I-526E, I-526E approval is followed by a visa with two-year conditions, and I-829 is filed in the final three months of conditional residence. How could USCIS require or enforce five-year minimum holding periods if USCIS may get its last review of an EB-5 case in as little as three years from the time of investment? As EB-5 users, we have to count on the realistic likelihood of processing delay and visa delay extending the immigration process far beyond that base three years for many investors. But how could USCIS formulate a policy predicated on the assumption that USCIS will never reach processing time goals, and that Department of State will not have or be able to issue timely visas.

The goal of sustainment litigation is worth rethinking. I concluded my last post on the lawsuit by fearing that the only possible win could be for anyone “looking forward to cashing in on visa backlogs and slow USCIS rulemaking to help keep that money beyond expected timelines.” But IIUSA protests in the February 27 JSR that it seeks no such win. In case of slow USCIS rulemaking: “IIUSA would receive no relief—nothing at all—in connection with bringing this lawsuit.” On that basis, if USCIS proves unable to offer a limited rulemaking timeline, then IIUSA should naturally want drop the lawsuit. IIUSA could still celebrate a win in having brought USCIS to public commitment in the February 27 JSR to — at least — prioritize new EB-5 regulations, subject to administration approval.

Trump Gold Card transcripts

The Trump administration has put immigrant investment in the spotlight and crosshairs, with discussions in the Oval Office yesterday and at a cabinet meeting today that talked up a potential new “Gold Card” immigration path, and mentioned EB-5. You can go to social media and your favorite advisors to get “what does this mean for EB-5 investors” analysis and reassurance, and all the alarming new developments. (A few good articles so far: “Will the Gold Card be a Wrecking Ball for the EB-5 Industry” (March 2, 2025) by Matthew Galati and Halston Chavez in IMI Daily, and “Trump’s Gold Card Plan Has Benefits But Legal and Practical Obstacles” (February 26, 2025) by David Bier for Cato Institute.)

What I have done is to transcribe exactly what President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have said in two events so far, for everyone’s reference. [With on-going updates as the topic continues to be discussed.]  

In the worst case that Congress believes in “Gold Cards” as a spending offset tool and hastily makes them law (reportedly possible as part of the budget reconciliation process) [UPDATE: but not in the draft released on March 8], then at least we’ll have a record of what was said, to hold our representatives to account. And in the best case that the preliminary ideas just introduced get more time to bake, the transcript sets an agenda of misconceptions to address, facts to correct, and objectives to support. The President’s remarks highlight immigration goals that are great points of departure for explaining what’s good about existing EB visa categories.

Reading the transcript, I note that the President and Secretary Lutnick are currently expressing different visions for immigrant investment. The President is focused on a Gold Card “green card for sale” idea, with a range of objectives from deficit reduction to helping companies employ talented young graduates. The President did not name or allude to EB-5 (at least in the meetings I transcribed so far). In fact the President spoke warmly about advantageous types of immigration that could be supported by his Gold Card, without seeming to realize that such good immigration is already happening under EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, and EB-5, only constrained by not enough visas to support it. Meanwhile the Commerce Secretary was negatively focused on EB-5, suggesting yesterday that EB-5 would be eliminated and replaced by the Gold Card, and today suggesting that EB-5 would be moved to his department, with contradictory statements on whether it would then be a project investment or a buy-a-green-card program. It wasn’t clear from either that the Gold Card and EB-5 are necessarily interrelated or mutually exclusive.

I could spend infinite time fact checking the following transcript – pointing out actual worldwide wealth and migration data, the Law of Demand, what’s in current immigration law, what EB-5 does and how tightly it’s regulated, the political and economic differences between EB-5 investment and buying a green card, the negative impact of other high-ticket gold card programs… But would it matter? Does the President need to put forward a Gold Card possibility and repeatedly say that there could be 1 to 10 million wealthy people eager to buy it, thus raising at least $5 trillion for the government, because his tax priorities are estimated to reduce revenue by at least $5 trillion? Does it matter that realizing the deficit elimination objective would require the participation of real aliens, since our planet only has about 600,000 ultra high net worth individuals ($30M+ net worth) and about 2.3 million people with $5M+ net worth, of whom over a third are already in the US? Perhaps the President has the number $5 million in mind because it’s reportedly what people are eager to pay for access to eat dinner with him. I note that top global migration expert Christian Nesheim is optimistic that a $5M Gold Card to the U.S. might get 100+ takers a year if accompanied by quick processing times — which would be $500 million in revenue as compared with the $3.9 billion in revenue generated by EB-5 last year by 4,848 investments at $800,000 each. (Also noting by the way that the real-life EB-5 wait line has five times fewer visa applicants — i.e. 10+ times fewer investors — than the 250,000 number that Secretary Lutnick made up on the fly.)

Before moving on to the transcript, I’d like to remind everyone of my PayPal link. If you benefit from articles like this and would like me to keep reporting and keep the work public, please consider a voluntary donation to support the blog.

Quoted from February 25, 2025 President Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office

[Minute 24:38-30]

Media: Mr. President, there are approximately 2 million federal employees right now. At the end of your term, what do you expect that number to be? What would you like that number to be?

President Trump: It will be lower, but I can’t tell you. Everybody knows that I ran on downsizing government, but making government better. I ran on tariffs and making our country rich, and that’s what I’m going to do.

We’re going to be doing something else that’s going to be very very good. We’re going to be selling a gold card. If you have a green card, this is a gold card. We’re going to be putting a price on that card of about $5 million dollars, and that’s going to give you green card privileges plus it’s going to be route to citizenship. And wealthy people will be coming into our country by buying this card. They’ll be wealthy. And they’ll be successful. And they’ll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people.  We think it’s going to be extremely successful. Never been done before anything like this. But it’s something that we’re going to be putting out over the next, would you say, two weeks, Howard? Would you like to say something about it?

Media: Do you have to invest a certain amount of money in the country in order to qualify for that gold card?

President Trump: Yes, exactly.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: So the EB-5 program, was really, you lend some money, but it was all, it was full of nonsense, make believe, and fraud. And it was a way to get a green card that was low priced. So the President said rather than having this sort of ridiculous EB-5 program we’re going to end the EB-5 program. We’re going to replace it with the Trump Gold Card which is really a Green Card Gold so they’ll be able to pay $5 million dollars to the U.S. government. They’ll have to go through vetting of course, we’re going to make sure they’re wonderful world class global citizens. They can come to America. The President can give them a green card. And they can invest in America. And we can use that money to reduce our deficit. Why do we give out lotteries of green cards. Why do we give out EB-5 for green cards. The President of the United States understands that the right answer is “why don’t we eliminate the deficit of the United States of America instead.”

President Trump: The Gold Card will bring in with it people that create jobs, very high level people. I think companies will pay to get people in. Since you today graduate from the Wharton School of Finance or Harvard or Stanford or any college and nobody knows if you can even go to work for a company. So Apple and all these companies that want to get people to be working for them will be able to buy a card. And for the people that are number one in their class at top schools, I see that as one of things.

But generally speaking it will be people with money and people that create jobs. And they won’t have to pay any tax on income outside of the United States. Which they’re not paying right now, they’re not citizens. But they’ll have to pay if they create jobs in the United States – they’ll pay full taxes like everybody else. So you’re getting big taxpayers, big job producers. And we’ll be able to sell maybe a million of these cards, maybe more than that. And if you add up the numbers, they’re pretty good. As an example, a million cards would be worth $5 trillion dollars. $5 trillion.

Secretary Lutnick: Wow!!

President Trump: And if you sell 10 million of the cards, that’s a total of $50 trillion dollars. Well we have $35 trillion in debt – that would be nice. So we’ll see. But it could be great. Maybe it will be fantastic. We have it all worked out from the legal standpoint. It’s totally legal to do. It hasn’t been done before. It’s been done in many different forms. We give them away. Why should we give them away. We shouldn’t give them away. And I think it’s something very exciting. I think it’s potentially something that we’re all very excited about.

So it is a gold card. It is somewhat like a green card but a higher level of sophistication. It’s a road to citizenship for people, and essentially people of wealth or people of great talent, people of wealth pay for people of talent to get in. Meaning companies will pay for people to get in and to have long-term status in the country. I think that is something we are very, very happy about. You have anything to say about that?

Secretary Lutnick: Many other countries do this, by the way, including, of course your 51st state does that.

Media: The money is earmarked for deficit reduction?

President Trump: It may be earmarked for deficit but it actually could be more money than that. I mean if you did $10 million, you’d have $15 trillion left over. But generally it’s going to be paid down debt, yes.

Media: Do you need Congress for this?

President Trump: No, we don’t need Congress. Because we’re not doing citizenship, we’re doing the card. It’s a path to citizenship, a very strong path to citizenship. But we’re not doing citizenship – for that I would have to get Congress.

Media: And would all countries be eligible for this gold card?

President Trump: It depends. Countries largely. The people will be vetted very carefully.

… [Minute 34:17 – 36]

Media: Have you lifted any sanctions on Russia?

President Trump: No, we haven’t lifted any sanctions on anyone.

Media: Is that part of the negotiations?

President Trump: I guess it will be at some point, but right now we haven’t agreed to lift sanctions on anybody.

Media: That gold card, getting back to that. I’m fascinated by that.

President Trump: You should be fascinated. Your taxes will go down to nothing.

Media: Would a Russian oligarch be eligible for a gold card?

President Trump: Yeah, possibly! Hey, I know some Russian oligarchs that are very nice people. It’s possible.

Secretary Lutnick: Heh heh heh.

President Trump: They’re not quite as wealthy as they used to be.

Secretary Lutnick: Heh heh heh heh heh.

President Trump: I think they can afford 5 million dollars. A lot of people are going to want to be in this country. And they’ll be able to work and provide jobs and build companies and pay taxes. All of those things. It’s an incredible thing. This is the group who is the first to hear it. Nobody’s heard about it. Nobody’s ever thought about it. But we’ve been thinking about it very strongly over the last week. And I was going to announce it sometime next week, and I figured why not, we have a lot of cameras blazing right now, might as well do it now. We’ll have Caroline announce it the next time. No, it’s a great thing, the gold card. Remember the words, the gold card. Somebody said, can we call it the “Trump Gold Card”? I said “If it helps, use the name Trump, I’ll give it to you for free.”

Media: You probably just launched 10,000 stories. Do you want to elaborate a little more on what Russian oligarchs you know?

President Trump: I know. Isn’t it interesting how many stories we do tell? And they all turn out to be true.

Secretary Lutnick: Heh heh heh heh

President Trump: And they all turn out to be ultimately correct. Trump was right about everything. Do you have one of the “Trump was right about everything” hats? I’m going to give it to this gentleman. Get me one of those.

Secretary Lutnick: But they’re all going to be vetted. Everybody who comes in gets vetted, ok, they get vetted. So you gotta, you know…

Media: When does this begin?

Secretary Lutnick: We’re going to begin in two weeks.

President Trump: About two weeks. The sale will start in about two weeks.

Secretary Lutnick: Heh heh heh heh

Quoted from President Trump Holds First Cabinet Meeting of Second Administration (February 26, 2025)

[starting at about minute 20] [2/27 UPDATE: text now replaced from the transcript published by the White House in Remarks by President Trump before Cabinet Meeting]

Q    Mr. President.

Q    About the — the Trump gold card idea —

     THE PRESIDENT:  Yeah.

     Q    — that you unveiled yesterday.

     THE PRESIDENT:  I hope you liked it.  (Laughter.)

     Q    I await more information.  But the question is: Does this reflect a view, on your part, that the American immigration system has never been properly monetized as you feel it should be?
    

     THE PRESIDENT:  Well, not so much monetized.  It hasn’t been properly run.  I get calls from, as an example, companies where they want to hire the number one student at a school.  A person comes from India, China, Japan, lots of different places, and they go to Harvard, the Wharton School of Finance.  They go to Yale.  They go to all great schools.  And they graduate number one in their class, and they are made job offers, but the offer is immediately rescinded because you have no idea whether or not that person can stay in the country.  I want to be able to have that person stay in the country. 

     These companies can go and buy a gold card, and they can use it as a matter of recruitment. 

     At the same time, the company is using that money to pay down debt.  We’re going to — we’re going to pay down a lot of debt with that.

     Q    Are they going to have to —

     THE PRESIDENT:  And I think the gold card is going to be used by — not only for that.  I mean, they’ll be used by companies.  I mean, I could see Apple — I’ve spoken with Tim Cook — and, by the way, he’s going to make a $500 billion investment in the country only because of the results of the election and, I think, because of tariffs.  He’s going to want to be in the country because of tariffs.  Because if you’re in the country, there is no tariff.  If you’re out of the country, you got to pay tariffs.  And that’s going to be a great investment, I think, that he’s making.  I know it’s going to be a great investment. 

     But we have to be able to get people in the country, and we want people that are productive people.  And I will tell you, the people that can pay $5 million, they’re going to create jobs.  They’re going to spend a lot of money on jobs.  They’re going to have to pay taxes on that too.  So, they’re going to be hiring people, they’re going to be bringing people in and companies in.  And, I don’t know, maybe it will sell like crazy.  I happen to think it’s going to sell like crazy.  It’s a bargain.

     But we’ll —

     Q    Will they have to commit to a certain number?

     THE PRESIDENT:  — know fairly soon.  I think Howard and — and Scott — a few of you, really, are responsible for it.  But, Howard, if you want to discuss that for a couple of minutes, I think I’d like to have you.  I think it’s going to be a very successful program.

     SECRETARY LUTNICK:  Sure.

     THE PRESIDENT:  This is Commerce.

     SECRETARY LUTNICK:  So, the EB-5 program, which has been around for many years, had investment of a million dollars into projects in America.  And those projects were often suspect, they didn’t really work out, there wasn’t any oversight of it.  And so, for a million-dollar investment, you got a visa, and then you came into the country and ended up with a green card. 

     So, it was poorly overseen, poorly executed.  Then you had our border open, where millions of people came through. 

     So, the idea is we will have a proper business.  We will modify the EB-5 agreement.  Kristi and I are working on it together.  For $5 million, they’ll get a license from the Department of Commerce.  Then they’ll make a proper investment on the EB-5, right?  And we think Scott and I will design the EB-5 investment model, because Scott and I are the best people together to do that.  So, this is joint. 

     This is exactly the Trump administration.  We all work together.  We work it out to be the best.  And if we sell — just remember — 200,000 — there’s a line for EB-5 of 250,000 right now — 200,000 of these gold green cards is $1 trillion

to pay down our debt, and that’s why the president is doing it, because we are going to balance this budget, and we are going to pay off the debt under President Trump. 

     Q    Mr. —

Q    And to qualify, do you have to promise and make commitments to create a certain number of jobs here in the U.S.?

     THE PRESIDENT:  No.  No.  Because not all these people are going to be job builders.  They’ll be successful people, or they’ll be people that were hired from colleges, like — sort of like paying an athlete a bonus.  I mean, Apple or one of the companies will go out and they’ll spend five mil- — they’ll buy five of them, and they’re going to get five people. 

     Look, I’ve had the complaint where — I’ve had the complaint from a lot of companies where they go out to hire people, and they can’t hire them b- — out of colleges.  And you know what they do?  They go back to India, or they go back to the country where they came, and they open up a company, and they become billionaires.  They become — and they’re employing thousands and there are a lot of examples. 

There are some really big examples where they were forced out of the country.  They graduated top in their class at a great school, and they weren’t able to stay.  This is all the time you hear it. 

And the biggest complaint I get from companies, other than overregulation, which we took care of, but we’re going to have to take care of it here, because a lot of that was put back on by Biden.  But the biggest complaint is the fact that they can’t have any longevity with people.  This way, they have pretty much unlimited longevity. 

Also, with the $5 million, you know, that’s a path to citizenship.  So, that’s going to be — it’s sort of a green card-plus, and it’s a path to citizenship.  We’re going to call it the gold card.  And I think it’s going to be very treasured.  I think it’s going to do very well.  And we’re going to start selling, hopefully, in about two weeks.

Now, just so you understand, if we sell a million — right? — a million, that’s $5 trillion.  Five trillion.  Howard was using a different number, but that’s $5 trillion.  If we sell 10 million, which is possible — 10 million highly productive people coming in or people that we’re going to make productive — they’ll be young, but they’re talented, like a talented athlete — that’s $50 trillion. 

That means our debt is totally paid off, and we have $15 trillion above that.  And — now, I don’t know that we’re going to sell that many.  Maybe we won’t so many at all.  But I think we’re going to sell a lot, because I think there’s — there really is a thirst. 

No other country can do this, because people don’t want to go to other countries.  They want to come here.  Everybody wants to come here, especially since November 5th.  (Laughter.)

(Cross-talk.)

SECRETARY LUTNICK:  They’ll all be vetted, by the way.  All these people will be vetted. 

Q    How?

SECRETARY LUTNICK:  Okay?  They’ll be vetted.

Q    On the gold cards, sir.  Can you talk a little bit more about the vetting process, you know —

THE PRESIDENT:  They’ll go through a process.  The process is being worked out right now, and we’re going to be — we’re going to be very careful. 

Q    And will there be restrictions on, for instance, can Chinese nationals get one? 

THE PRESIDENT:  No, we’re not going to restrict. 

Q    Can Iranian nationals get —

THE PRESIDENT:  We’re probably not going to be restricting too much in — in terms of countries, but maybe in terms of individuals.  We want to make sure we have people that love our country and are capable of loving the country.

Q    Is there a process, sir —

Q    Mr. President, there is a measles outbreak in Texas at the moment in which a child is reported to have died.  Do you have concerns about that?  And have you asked Secretary Kennedy to look into that outbreak? 

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, why don’t we — Bobby, do you want to speak on that, please?

Interview of Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick by Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier on February 26, 2025

Baier: Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, thanks for having us here at the Commerce Department.

Lutnick: Great to be with you.

Baier: How’d that cabinet meeting go today? First one!

Lutnick: It was so fun. We have such a great cabinet. There’s great camaraderie. The feeling is just fire. And this administration is winning. Every day it’s winning.

Baier: Let me talk about what you were talking about there the EB-5 program, which is gold, green cards, $5 million that essentially gets you a pathway to citizenship. Explain, first of all, how that came to be.

Lutnick: So there’s an EB-5 program that always had, if you invest in real estate or make a loan in America, you get a path to citizenship with a green card. And so the President had conversations over the weekend with his friend John Paulson, who came up and said, “Hey, why aren’t we doing better with that?” He called me. We talked about it, and I did work over the weekend, on Monday and on Tuesday, at a press conference, the President comes out and gives the path, which says, imagine if we sell a million of them, that’s $5 trillion and that pays off our debt, drives down interest rates and makes America amazing.

Baier: So the coverage of it, you know, Trump gold card to offer rich foreigners route to US citizenship for 5 million; Trump says us can pay off $36 trillion debt by selling wealthy immigrants $5 million gold card visas. And then Politico took another take: “Trump: I know some Russian oligarchs that are very nice people.” What do you say to people who say…

Lutnick: Come on….

Baier: Yeah, no, not about that. Are they going to be vetted?

Lutnick: First of all, of course, deeply vetted. And we said that from the first minute go. These are vetted people. These are going to be great global citizens who are going to bring entrepreneurial spirit, capacity and growth to America. If one of them comes in, think of the jobs they’re going to bring with them, the businesses they’re going to bring with them, and they’re going to pay American taxes as well. So this is huge money for America.

Baier: And how many people are waiting in this line currently?

Lutnick: So there are 250,000 people waiting in line. Now, if they’re willing to pay the 5 million, that’s over a trillion dollars. That comes directly to $1,250,000,000,000 just for that line. And I think these people are going to come enormous ways, because they know they can come into America, and they can be in the greatest country on Earth.

Baier: You’re kind of bullish when you talk about paying down the debt, and you said it again today in the Cabinet meeting, you truly believe that with this program, with DOGE, you can make this money all materialize and counteract a really skyrocketing deficit.

Lutnick: So if you go back to my Twitter feed, which I’m sure no one does, but October 14, when I recruited Elon and came up with the name DOGE, October 14, we agreed to balance the budget that he would take a trillion of expense out. Remember, we have just under $4 trillion of entitlements, but no one’s ever gone through it. No one’s ever looked at it. If I told you, no one’s ever, ever, ever, ever looked at it, you’ve got to assume 20, 25% is just mistakes, errors, and it’s wrong. That’s a trillion dollars a year. We do tariffs, we do the gold card, we drill, baby drill, and we get rid of these tax scams that are all over the United States of America, and that will produce a trillion in revenue, trillion in cuts, and a trillion in revenue and it balances this budget, and we’re going to do it.

From February 28, 2025 interview of President Trump by Ben Domenich of The Spectator

BD: Was it more important for you to use that to balance the budget than to do other things?

DJT: Well. I think a big sleeper is going to be this gold card. It’s an idea I had. I think this could be a very big bridge. If you sell, let’s say, a million at 5 million, that’s $5 trillion. The budget’s almost going to be balanced. It’s not going to be that far short. It’s going to make $5 trillion. That’s part of you know, that’s part of the—

BD: How do you ensure that that’s something that doesn’t get exploited by the wrong people?

DJT: It’s so simple. You know, the other stuff, the different programs you put money in and you can build a building and you get a mortgage, and this and that. Oh, yeah-yeah. You can imagine what’s going on. “I think we’re going to terminate the program,” they say, “it’s just so terrible.” This is very simple. Five million and you have a path to citizenship. You essentially get a green card plus. It’s a green card plus. It’s a gold card. And you have a plan. If we did a million, it’s a lot. Now, if we did 10 million, that’s $50 trillion. Ten million. You know, if that thing exploded, you had people that would pay that. Yeah, I have people all the time begging me to help them get into the country. Some of them are very wealthy people. They’d pay that in two minutes.

Transcribed from President Trump Addresses Joint Session of Congress (March 5, 2025)

Starting at about 1:10:00

THE PRESIDENT: More than 100 years older than our country. 

But we’re going to find out where that money is going, and it’s not going to be pretty. 

By slashing all of the fraud, waste, and theft we can find, we will defeat inflation, bring down mortgage rates, lower car payments and grocery prices, protect our seniors, and put more money in the pockets of American families.  (Applause.) 

And today, interest rates took a beautiful drop — big, beautiful drop.  It’s about time.

And in the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget.  We’re going to balance it.  (Applause.) 

With that goal in mind, we have developed in great detail what we are calling the gold card, which goes on sale very, very soon.  

     For $5 million, we will allow the most successful, job-creating people from all over the world to buy a path to U.S. citizenship.  It’s like the green card but better and more sophisticated.  (Laughter.)  And these people will have to pay tax in our country.  They won’t have to pay tax from where they came.  The money that they’ve made, you wouldn’t want to do that, but they have to pay tax, create jobs.

They’ll also be taking people out of colleges and paying for them so that we can keep them in our country, instead of having them being forced out.  Number one at the top school, as an example, being forced out and not being allowed to stay and create tremendous numbers of jobs and great success for a company out there.

So, while we take out the criminals, killers, traffickers, and child predators who were allowed to enter our country under the open border policy of these people — the Democrats, the Biden administration — the open border, insane policies that you’ve allowed to destroy our country — we will now bring in brilliant, hardworking, job-creating people.  They’re going to pay a lot of money, and we’re going to reduce our debt with that money.  (Applause.)

Quoted from President Trump interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Sunday Morning Futures on March 9, 2025 (starting at about Minute 2:12)

Bartiromo: So we’re coming up — Congress is doing this reconciliation package. When you look at where the spending is, 76% of the spending is going to the mandatory programs. Don’t you have to really cut into those mandatory programs in order to really make a dent? You say you’re going to balance the budget. You can’t balance the budget just by DOGE cuts, right?

Trump: We’re going to have growth like you’ve never seen before.

Bartiromo: That’s true, you said that.

Trump: We’re going to have growth. I’m not going to touch Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. Now we’re going to get fraud out of there. … And I’m doing something else that I think is very exciting. Maybe I’m wrong. A Gold Card. For $5 million you buy a path to citizenship in this country. We’ll see. I believe that Apple and all these companies that can’t get people to come out of college and come cause they get thrown out – think of it, you graduate number one at the Wharton School of Finance or Harvard or Stanford and you get thrown out of the country, you can’t stay more than one day. And they want to hire these people, but they can’t. They’ve complained to me about it. Now they can buy a Gold Card. And they can take that Gold Card and make it a part of their deal to get these top students. No different than an athlete. It’s like a bonus, a signing bonus. And you’re going to have a lot of people buy that. You’re going to have a lot of companies buying Gold Cards. So for $5 million – now, it’s a lot of money if you add it up, if you sell a lot of them. If we don’t, it’s nothing ventured nothing lost. But I think it’s very successful. You can’t get a green card. This would be a green card on steroids. This would be much better than a green card.

Bartiromo: How do you know the Chinese are not going to take advantage of it and exploit it? They do that with student visas.

Trump: They may. They may. But they don’t have to do that. They can do it in other ways.

Bartiromo: Look, the Democrats say that Elon Musk and DOGE are overstepping their bounds. …

Transcript from a portion of an interview by Laura Ingraham of President Trump on The Ingraham Angle March 19, 2025

Trump: Now they’ve got a new one. We’re going to back murderers, killers and people that hate our country. We’re going to back people that hate Israel. Want to destroy it, people that are murderers, people that are horrible. We’re going to back them. I think that might be a 100% issue for us. They don’t ever find an issue that’s like a politically, very politically– I mean, backing Khalil is not a great issue, but backing Khalil is better than backing these other you know, hundreds of people that are really serious criminals. It’s probably a step better than that.  

Ingraham: The EB-5 visas, you’ve spoken about them and the fraud and abuse of that process over years. They’re basically immigrant investment visas. $800,000 you can get a fast track to a green card. You don’t have to speak English, you don’t have to have a special skill. But it’s very popular. It’s a big, long line of people waiting to get these.

Trump: We’re going to have one that’s much more popular.

Ingraham: But the golden visa, which you also you’re obviously backing, probably is going to have to go through Congress. We’ll see if they actually do that. But $5 million investment from a foreigner coming into the United States. Why should our citizenship be purchased for any amount of money, especially given the fact that you’re America First, given the types of people who have $5 million to throw down for a visa or for a permanent residency?

Trump: That’s why, because I’m America First, because at $5 million you’re getting a lot of things, but you’re getting $5 million. Let’s say we sell a million of them. That’s $5 trillion. We are now an unbelievably successful country paying down tremendous amounts of debt. It’s all going to pay down debt. We’re going to have very little debt. But if you did think of it, if you did $5 million– Now, generally, people that can pay $5 million are going to be job producers. Okay, they’re going to be successful. They’re going to produce jobs. But here’s another thing, Apple comes to me. A lot of companies come to me, they say, Sir, we just made a deal to hire the number one student at the Wharton School of Finance or at Harvard Business School, or anything else, or MIT, or Stanford, or any– But they’re going to throw them out of the country the day after graduation. They’ll buy these.

Ingraham: Why should any American–?

Trump: By the way, they’re going to call it either the gold card– The problem is, there are many gold cards. I will tell you what my people want to call it. It’ll drive you crazy. It’ll drive the Left crazy. They want to call it the Trump Card, because the Trump Card sells much better than the gold card. Everybody has–

Ingraham: You’re not worried about any unsavory people coming in and taking–

Trump: Yeah, I’m worried about unsavory. In which case we’re going to–

Ingraham: They’re going to be vetted.

Trump: Give them the money back, and they get out.

Ingraham: They’ll be properly vetted.

Trump: They’re going to be properly vetted. But, you know, here we are talking about a lot of people. I think it’s going to be very successful. If somebody’s wrong, we get– we are actually very, very nice, because it makes it a lot easier legally. We give them that money back and we send them out.

Quoted from All-In In DC! Podcast interview with Howard Lutnick on March 20, 2025 (starting at 1:10:37)

Q: Speaking of potentially great ideas, can you tell us about the Trump card.

Lutnick: Sure

Q: So whose idea was that? And how did that come about?

Lutnick: John Paulson had a call with Donald Trump and was talking to Donald Trump and was kicking around the idea of — we should sell. Right. Why do we give away visas? We should sell them. And they’re talking about it. And Donald Trump calls me, gets me on the phone. Right? We all talk about it. Right? And then we go from there. And then my job is to figure out, like I always figure out, how to do it. What’s the path? Let’s go figure it out. Of course, about two weeks from today it goes out. Okay Elon’s building me the software right now. Right. And then out it goes. And by the way, uh, yesterday I sold a thousand.

Q: Oh you did? I got a poly market I created on how many are you guys going to sell this year, So yeah Curious to see how many.

Q: Cool. That’s fantastic. Do you want to tell people just the rough terms?

Lutnick: Okay. So if you’re a US citizen you pay global tax. So you’re not going to bring in outsiders, going to come in to pay global tax. So if you have a green card — which used to be a green card now gold card — you’re a permanent resident of America. You can be a citizen but you don’t have to be. And none of them are going to choose to be. What they’re going to do is they’re going to have the right to be in America. They’d be $5 million and they have the right to be an American. They have the right to be an American as long as they’re good. As long as they’re good people

Q: And they’re vetted

Lutnick: And they’re vetted. And they can’t break the law. We could always take it away if they’re like evil or mean or bad or something. Not mean. But you know if they do something horrible, you could take it away, right? But the idea is if I was not American and I lived in any other country, I would buy six. One for me one for my wife and my four kids because God forbid something happens, I want to be able to go to America and I want to have the right to go to the airport to go to America and them to say “hello Mr Lutnik, Hello Mr Lutlnick and the Lutnick family, Welcome home.” Right? That’s what I want to hear. I don’t want to hear I can’t come here when there’s a you know a a horrible war a horrible whatever? I want to be able to go home, right. And once I’m home – ehhhh, I might as well build a business. So you have the most productive people in the world going to start spending time here. They’re going to have a family office. They’re going to hire some people.

Q: And you’re not going to tax their external worldwide income.

Lutnick: I only tax the money they make in America. Which is what we do now. But their global income stays out.

Q. And they pay 5 million.

Q: And how many people do you think there are that could qualify in the world? How many—

Lutnick: There are 37 million people in the world who are capable of buying the card. In case you were wondering.

Q: 37 million. That’s a lot more than Chat GPT told me.

Lutnick: Who are capable of buying.

Q: Who are capable of buying it.

Lutnick: Now I’m not saying they will but they’re capable of buying.

Q: How many do you think he’ll sell?

Lutnick: Uh the president thinks we can sell a million So five trillion dollars.

Q: I think a million is reasonable.

Q: I mean look as an outsider who came in and got his green card and then got his citizenship and now pays global tax every which way known to man. If this were available 15 years ago after the Facebook IPO that’s what I would have done. It would have been much better for me theoretically. Now I’m happy I’m happy to pay the tax.

Lutnick: So the idea, So the idea is um– and it’s going to go fast. Meaning you apply, right? We take your money. And you know the way computers work now. They have these cool things, like these computer things. They’re amazing. You like you know you put stuff in and they actually check everything. It’s– It’s fantastic. I don’t–You don’t even have to plug them in anymore. It’s amazing. Like they get them– they get the information through the air. I mean you could do a better vet than anybody in government has ever done it before in one second, right? Better than they’ve ever done it before.

Quoted from April 3, 2025 remarks by President Trump aboard Air Force One

President Trump: Five million. For five million dollars this could be yours. Notice the person on the card. You know what that card is? It’s the Gold Card. The Trump Card Gold Card.

Media: Who’s the first buyer?

President Trump: Me. I’m the first.

Media: Who’s the second?

President Trump: I don’t know. But I’m the first buyer. It’ll be out in about– less than two weeks. Pretty exciting, right?

Quoted from Cabinet Meeting at The White House – April 10, 2025

00:06:12-00:06:17 (6 sec)

Howard Lutnick

We’re getting the respect we deserve now and I think you’re going to see historic deals one after the other.

And then I’m very excited that with a week and a half we’re going to start with the Gold Card and the Trump Card. It’s coming out. And we’re very excited about that, and that’s coming soon. So very excited.

Donald Trump

Thank you very much. Good job. Linda?

00:32:16-00:32:34 (18 sec)

Elon Musk

So um, so I think we’re doing a lot of good uh, an excellent collaboration with cabinet to achieve these savings. And it will actually result in better services for the American people. Um, and that we’re going to be spending their tax dollars in a way that is sensible and fair and good.

Donald Trump

And your people are fantastic. In fact, hopefully they’ll stay around for the long haul. We’d like to keep as many as we can. They’re great. Smart, sharp, right?

Unidentified

Yes.

Donald Trump

Finding things that nobody would have thought of. Very computer savvy.

Unidentified

Yes. 100 percent.

Elon Musk

And we’re working hard to get that the Trump gold card operational hopefully in the next week or so.

Donald Trump

That’ll be good.

Unidentified

Incredible.

Donald Trump

That’ll be very exciting.

Unidentified

It’s really exciting.

Donald Trump

That’s a pathway to citizenship into the United States. It’s —

Unidentified

Yeah.

Elon Musk

It’s a big deal.

Donald Trump

Yeah, it’s a big deal. Thank you very much. Great job you’re doing.

From a conversation between Mike Allen and Secretary Howard Lutnick at Axios’ streamed event, Building the Future on May 21, 2025

Mike Allen: Secretary, you promoted the Trump Gold Card, which makes it possible for you to get a visa for $5 million. I think you said, when you’re out to dinner, someone asked you for 10, keep the change. When is this Trump Gold Card coming?

Howard Lutnick: So they’ll I expect there’ll be a website up called trumpcard.gov in about a week.

Allen: So this is news.

Lutnick: Oh yeah. And then, and then the details of that will come soon after. But people can start to register. And all that will come over a matter of the next weeks — not months, weeks.

Allen: How many have you informally sold or pre cleared, or however you think–

Lutnick: So I’m in the Middle East. I’m at one of these giant dinners. There’s 400 people at this giant dinner, and everyone’s really respectful. And I have my phone out, you know? And so someone says, so one of the senior leaders walks by, and they go why do you have your phone out? I go, I’m selling cards. So Okay, so basically, everyone I meet who’s not an American is going to want to buy the card if they have the fiscal capacity. Because why wouldn’t you want to be able if something bad happens?

Allen: Haha.

Lutnick: Well, I’m not saying – Right, for those who can afford to help America pay off its debt, right? This is for people who can help America pay off its debt. Why wouldn’t you want a Plan B that says, God forbid something bad happens, you come to the airport in America and the person in immigration says, Welcome home, right? As opposed to, where the heck am I going? Something bad’s happening in my country– So we’re going to vet everybody. Everybody’s going to be vetted, right? But these are going to be great people who are going to come and bring businesses and opportunity to America, and they’re gonna pay $5 million. So 200,000 people — remember, we give 280,000 visas a year now for free, not counting the 20 million people who broke into this country for nothing under Biden. But 200,000 people who pay. That’s a trillion dollars that pays for everything, everything. And so I want you to think about that. We give it away for free, and said Donald Trump’s gonna bring in a trillion dollars. For what purpose? To make America better. And it makes perfect sense to me. Thank you.

June 11, 2025 announcement by President Trump on Truth Social

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

FOR FIVE MILLION $DOLLARS, THE TRUMP CARD IS COMING! Thousands have been calling and asking how they can sign up to ride a beautiful road in gaining access to the Greatest Country and Market anywhere in the World. It’s called THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA! THE WAITING LIST IS NOW OPEN. To sign up, go to — TRUMPCARD.GOV.

IPO employee terminations, and why people are important

[3/4 UPDATE: I am happy to see the report that OPM walks back memo on firing probationary employees, leaving decision to agencies. 3/17 UPDATE: USCIS announced Probationary Reinstatements. I’m thankful that IPO can keep as many as possible of its valuable employees.]

Last week the media reported mass firings at DHS, and I can confirm that the USCIS Investor Program Office is affected. Since 2022 IPO has been striving to get staffed up again, hiring for 60 vacancies to reach its previously-authorized level of 237 staff, plus additional positions to support new workloads created as a result of the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act. The hiring surge I reported in 2023 was ultimately successful. But the recent staff up unfortunately means that a number of IPO employees are newly hired, thus still in probationary periods, thus now on the chopping block. I can’t report total termination numbers yet for IPO, just going from anecdotal evidence, but I see that OPM directs agencies to fire government workers still on probation.

Terminating staff at the USCIS Investor Program Office is wrong as a budgetary measure, wrong for enforcement, and wrong for the economy.

USCIS employee payroll is not funded by taxpayers/the government but by filing fees collected from immigrants, so firing USCIS employees has no impact on the federal budget and saves taxpayers no money. (Indeed terminating IPO employees specifically could have a negative budgetary effect, because EB-5 filing fees are set intentionally very high to not only fully cover EB-5 adjudication costs but also help support non-fee-funded agency costs. Creating EB-5 processing problems could discourage those high-fee forms — not to mention the job-creating investments that occasion such forms to be filed.)

IPO employees represent “The Wall” between EB-5 investors and a chance to immigrate, and are also responsible for realizing nearly every integrity provision in the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022. Without IPO employees there are no EB-5 audits, no security checks, no review of disclosures, no review of registrations, no review of job creation claims, no sanctions, and fraud gets to hide indefinitely in dark warehouses for lack of staff to pull out and review files. It’s not as if the EB-5 train can be stopped by terminating USCIS employees: regional centers are still free to raise money and EB-5 investors can still get work authorization and parole just based on filing petitions, even if no one at IPO reviews and approves or denies the EB-5 petitions. What’s reduced, by terminating employees, is oversight for immigrant investment.

IPO employees help make the difference between function and dysfunction for EB-5 as a job-creating investment program. When Alissa Emmel held her first stakeholder meeting as IPO Chief in April 2022, IPO was at rock bottom with 177 employees who had adjudicated fewer than 600 forms in the most recent quarter (and received barely over 800 forms). After two years under Ms. Emmel’s leadership, and since hiring scores of employees, IPO has been completing nearly 4,000 forms per quarter (and receiving over 2,000 forms). Immense improvement, thanks to new people! I apologize for doubting you at the time, Chief Emmel. You accomplished what you promised, though even more work is needed to maximize EB-5 program potential. Who wins, if progress to date is lost by terminating the people who created it? As Chief Emmel explained in October 2022, “Combined with filling vacant positions, proper staffing will allow us to decrease the backlog of pending EB-5 petitions, work toward meeting new statutory processing time goals and implement other provisions under the new EB-5 law, and perform other necessary administrative functions such as data entry for new applications and petitions.” And new hires at IPO represent a major investment of resources – according to the CIS Ombudsman, it takes an average 241 days to move a new USCIS adjudicator from hiring decision to completion of basic training. What a waste, to lose that investment.

I have encouraged terminated IPO employees to contact IIUSA with their stories. Just in case advocacy can help to stem the termination tide, and prevent the Administration from unintentionally reducing oversight and enforcement for immigration and from gutting a job-creating investment program.

EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025

5/21/2025 UPDATE: Please see the new version of this post based on more recent data: EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025 — UPDATED

–ORIGINAL POST–

The EB-5 “investor visa” program obviously depends on visas. It’s tough to get a handle on the EB-5 visa outlook, considering spotty data, moving parts, and disincentives to recognize a threat. I keep working on analysis, because it’s so practically important for EB-5 issuers and investors to assess the visa incentive. I keep hesitating to publish, because conclusions are controversial and tough to fully qualify. But EB-5 is in a visa crisis that keeps getting more severe, and too dangerous not to address as best we can.

I’ve now updated the EB-5 Timing Page by publishing the current fruit of my on-going labor – a detailed Excel model that carefully patches together available facts, adds assumptions step by step, and builds a responsive model for assessing current backlogs and visa wait times. This article gives the tip of the analysis iceberg. For full detail you can download the EB-5 Visa Supply and Demand Analysis Excel model and make your way through it, following the sources and formulas and adjusting assumptions as needed to reach your own conclusions.  As time permits, I may put up additional articles to discuss portions of the analysis in detail. And my paid timing consultations are now available again for those who’d like to discuss one-on-one.

EB-5 already has more pipeline visa applicants than annual visas in the Unreserved, High Unemployment, and Rural categories. This means retrogression coming in each category. I dare say that every analysis of available data leads to that general conclusion. The debatable question is who will be affected, when, and to what extent.

Table 1 gives an estimate of the total pipeline backlog going into 2025, while Table 2 gives the timing predictions that result from one detailed comparison of the existing backlog with forthcoming visa supply. As a base case, I populated the model with assumptions that I consider conservative, and erring on the side of optimism regarding processing speed and retention rates.

TABLE 1: Estimated EB-5 backlog size compared with supply as of FY25China visa applicants (qualified or in the pipeline as of 10/2024)India Rest of WorldEstimated total qualified plus pipeline visa applicants as of 10/2024Compare visas available in FY2025Compare annual visas available in FY2026 and beyond
Unreserved33,3003,2008,10044,60011,4706,800
Rural3,9001,0501,275  6,2254,4272,000
High Unemployment3,9701,4903,160  8,6202,2141,000
Infrastructure????443200
Total41,1705,74012,53559,44518,55410,000

Key assumptions behind Table 1 estimates: an average 2-to-1 ratio of visas to I-526/I-526E filings for post-RIA investors (assuming average 2.5 family size and 80% approval rate), accurate NVC records for pre-RIA investors, and minimal visa-stage attrition. “Pipeline backlog” means qualified visa-stage applicants plus future visa applicants coming up from I-526/I-526E processing. Key data behind Table 1 estimate: NVC wait list as of May 2024, pending I-485 as of October 2024, pre-RIA I-526 pending as of July 2024, recent I-526 denial rates and family sizes, post-RIA I-526 and I-526E filed through September 2024, post-RIA filings by country and category through July 2024.

TABLE 2: EB-5 timing estimatesWho may get a visa in FY2025? (optimistic best-case scenario for China and India)Estimate for when an investor with a 2025 priority date might expect a visa number in this category
Unreserved ChinaPriority dates up to September 2016 (best case for China assuming ROW visas are limited by processing constraints)After 2033 (considering the existing pre-RIA backlog and assuming that ROW demand continues neither much higher nor much lower than in 2024)
Unreserved IndiaPriority dates up to July 2019 (assuming FIFO order)After 2030 (considering existing pre-RIA backlog)
Unreserved ROWUp to 9,800 applicants in theory, but likely about 4,000 due to processing constraintsAfter 2026 (considering existing pre-RIA backlog)
Rural ChinaPriority dates up to March 2024 (best case if maximum FY25 visas issued, and no visa bulletin limit until year-end)2032 (assuming maximum FY25 visas issued, and that ROW demand continues as in 2024)
Rural IndiaPriority dates up to March 2024 (best case if maximum FY25 visas issued, and no visa bulletin limit until year-end)2029 (assuming maximum FY25 visas issued, and that ROW demand continues as in 2024)
Rural ROWWhichever priority dates can get processed in time to claim a FY25 visaAs soon as processing times permit
High Unemployment ChinaPriority dates up to April 2023 (Best case if maximum FY25 visas issued, and no visa bulletin limit until year-end. November 2022 would be worse case if ROW visas can be maximized.)After 2033, when pre-RIA Unreserved backlog clears making Unreserved visas also available to post-RIA applicants (theoretical worst-case if HU investors limited to HU visas: 2102)
High Unemployment IndiaPriority dates up to April 2023 (Best case if maximum FY25 visas issued, and no visa bulletin limit until year-end. November 2022 would be worse case if ROW visas can be maximized.)After 2030, when pre-RIA Unreserved backlog clears making Unreserved visas also available to post-RIA applicants (theoretical worst-case if HU investors limited to HU visas: 2053)
High Unemployment ROWPriority dates up to May 2023 (Scenario if F25 visas are FIFO with no visa bulletin limit on China/India. January 2024 would be best case for ROW if swift processing allows maximizing ROW visas in FY25)After 2026, when pre-RIA Unreserved backlog clears making Unreserved visas also available to post-RIA applicants (worst-case if limited to HU visas is 2030)
Infrastructure Unknown Unknown

Key assumptions behind Table 2 base estimates: That all available FY2025 visas will be issued, with no limits imposed yet on China or India Rural or High Unemployment in FY2025. (In the likely event that this optimistic assumption is not realized, worse visa wait times would result for China and India.) That the backlog entering FY2025 is as described in Table 1 (and as detailed by priority date in the supporting Excel). That new EB-5 demand in 2025 and future years will mirror the volume and TEA/category distribution of EB-5 demand in FY2024. (To the extent that this proves not true, actual wait times for China Unreserved, China Rural, and India Rural could be less than estimated in Table 2.) That qualified Rest-of-World High Unemployment and Rural applicants are likely to take High Unemployment and Rural visas at least in 2025 (considering that they are first-in-line for Rural and HU visas while thousands of earlier pre-RIA ROW applicants still stand in the way of access to an Unreserved visa), but that Rural and High Unemployment investors from all countries are likely to request/be assigned Unreserved visas as soon as the pre-RIA Unreserved visa backlog clears for their country. That visas are generally assigned in priority date order. (As discussed in the previous post, exceptions to this general rule mean that individual experience can turn out to be faster or more delayed than the average, even assuming that the times in Table 2 are on-target as averages.)

Table 3. Potential annual additions to the EB-5 pipeline backlog (if current/future years mirror the number of I-526/I-526E filings in FY2024)ChinaIndiaROWTotal estimated new pipeline visa applicants resulting from one year of investments (FY2024)Compare annual visas available in FY2026 and beyond
Unreserved/Other100 501503006,800
Rural 2,6007001,0004,3002,000
High Unemployment 2,2008001,8004,8001,000
Infrastructure??? ?200
Total4,9001,5502,9509,40010,000

Tables 1 and 3 highlight the basic EB-5 visa predicament: that we’re in a deep and rapidly deepening visa hole. EB-5 entered 2025 with about five times more pipeline visa applicants than base annual visas. 2024 alone brought in 2.3x as many Rural investors and nearly 5x as many High Unemployment investors as can reasonably get visas in a year with their families in a normal year under category limits.

Table 2 summarizes attempts to quantify when investors could dig out of that hole and secure visas. (See individual tabs in the Excel model for sources and derivations for the estimates in this table. And you can use the worksheets to try the effect of different assumptions.) 

Table 2 is a reminder that if something doesn’t give, the only new EB-5 investors in 2025 who can expect to get a green card this decade may be Unreserved and Rural investors from “Rest of World” countries, and possibly Rural investors from India. The supply/demand imbalance in High Unemployment is already large enough to create retrogression for applicants from every country in 2026 (or earlier if USCIS increases processing volume), and to measure theoretical wait times for China and India in lifetimes (though less in practice assuming Unreserved visas can be allocated to post-RIA investors as soon as the pre-RIA Unreserved backlog clears).

Could actual wait times be even worse than the Table 2 estimate? Theoretically yes, if low-volume I-526/I-526E processing continues to hinder visa issuance, if on-going Rest-of-World visa demand increased from 2024 levels, and if family sizes and/or approval rates beat historical averages.

Actual visa wait times could also turn out less than estimated in Table 2, so long as visa demand proves less or supply proves greater than modeled in the Excel workbook. Maybe thousands of the pre-RIA China and India applicants registered at the National Visa Center have withdrawn or will give up or get denied, thus hastening the day when post-RIA applicants can start to access Unreserved as well as set-aside visas. (Visa Bulletin dates may signal this possibility for India – I’ll be interested to see the forthcoming updated NVC waitlist.) Maybe recent applicants will prove to have a high rate of project and/or evolutionary failure, resulting in a visas-to-I-526E ratio of much less than 2.0 for Rural and High Unemployment. Maybe the EB-5 market will shortly collapse over uncertainty around visas, sustainment, and reauthorization, thus stemming the incoming tide of Rest-of-World demand that would otherwise limit future visa supply to China and India. Or maybe politicians will realize that they love the visa category that has given the U.S. innumerable jobs, measurable economic growth, and immigrants such as Elon Musk, and decide to allocate more visa numbers to EB-5.

As illustrated in Tables 1 and 3, stabilizing the EB-5 visa situation could require a one-time infusion of around 40,000 visas to clear the existing backlog, or alternatively about 2.3x more rural visas and 4.9x more high unemployment visas on an annual basis to support ongoing demand potential. There were just under 5,000 EB-5 investments made in 2024, which could be nearly sustainable for a program with 10,000 annual visas — if not for the EB-5 backlog blocking paths for new investors and blocking access to 68% of those visas.  Alternatively, wait times could stabilize at a tolerable level (for those few who can persist) if the EB-5 market contracts by at least half, and/or about half of past Unreserved and High Unemployment investors give up.

Something is certain to give, when theoretical wait times become intolerably long. Consider this exercise: “100 people arrive for breakfast at a restaurant that can serve 20 customers per hour. How long will customer #101 wait for breakfast?” The real-life answer is not “100/20=5 hours” but rather “however long she/others are willing to wait for breakfast before giving up and going to eat somewhere else.” Ideally the restaurant owner is smart enough to rustle up more staff and tables in time to accommodate the profitable crowd, and to avoid discouraging new customers.

In cell D42 of the HU tab of the model, you’ll find a formula 5,252/70=75. The China high unemployment pipeline backlog is on track to be 75x greater this year than annual HU visa supply under country caps. But of course, no Chinese HU investor will wait anywhere near 75 years for a visa. The gap between demand and supply will inevitably close somehow, to reduce wait times to tolerable levels. I sincerely hope that supply-side relief is what ultimately closes the gap, making many more visas available across categories such that HU investors from all countries can get timely access to a HU or Unreserved visa. But for now, please “mind the gap” or risk unexpected failure.

As time permits, I may write additional posts to discuss the methods and thinking baked into the Excel model behind this post, and to walk through using and modifying the model. As time permits, I may redo the model when Department of State publishes the November 2024 NVC Waitlist and the 2024 Report of the Visa Office, and as new processing reports from USCIS and DOS help clarify possible visa issuance this year. If you benefit from the considerable effort that I’ve put into this otherwise thankless analysis, please consider making a contribution to support the work. If you’d like to pay for a consultation to discuss the model and your EB-5/timing questions individually, please book a meeting here.

I would like to thank Lee Li of IIUSA, Connor Chen of EB5 Sir, and Joey Barnett and Charlie Oppenheim of WR Immigration for responding to my requests for advance review of this analysis. And I welcome any additional corrections and feedback to the EB-5 Visa Supply and Demand Analysis model. You can email me at suzanne@lucidtext.com.

Insights from consular visas issued in FY2025 Q1

Department of State has also been updating its data, with monthly immigrant visa issuance reports now published for the first quarter of FY2025 (October, November, and December 2024). While my previous post focused on adjustment of status visas so far this year, the DOS numbers show what’s been happening with consular processing. As illustrated in the summary table below, DOS did great work with Unreserved visa issuance in the first quarter, managing to issue 40% of Unreserved visas available for the year. Chinese applicants particularly benefited from this efficiency. I’m also delighted to announce, for the first time, visas issued in almost every new post-RIA category (only missing infrastructure). However, the set-aside numbers are low. Rural and high unemployment visa issuance at consulates in the first quarter barely reached 1% of visas available this year. With AOS numbers apparently low so far as well, this makes me question whether/when FY2025 limits in those categories could possibly be reached. If this low volume continued, it would mean deferring set-aside retrogression in the visa bulletin (giving more “C” months for filing AOS), wasting some FY2025 set-aside visas, and pushing more of the existing backlog into future years. I trust that we’ll see much higher issuance numbers in coming monthly reports, to get as many set-aside applicants as possible into FY25’s unusually high visa limits.