6/23 Update: Note that I have set up a page collecting information on this issue, including details on the conference call with USCIS economists.
3/23 Update: Note that the comments to this post offer interesting discussion and useful insights.
3/1 Update: Peter Joseph of IIUSA, who has been collecting redacted RFEs, confirms that this is indeed the common language, and that applications using a variety of methodologies (including IMPLAN, RIMS II, and REMY) have been affected.
In the past week I have seen three new RFEs on initial Regional Center applications. Each application involved a different economist and attorney and different types of real estate development projects, but each RFE includes identical language related to the “tenant-occupancy” issue. Since this language was applied to three such different cases, it’s evidently not case-specific and USCIS should have released it to the community at large. The fact that they didn’t, but instead released an evasive Public Engagement email while hiding the specifics in individual RFEs, suggests that they are uncertain and open to change based on feedback. And they will get feedback. Let’s not panic, but instead hunker down to create a solid response that addresses the root concerns and clarifies the misconceptions reflected in the following request, and prevents it from being repeated in future RFEs or official guidance.
Upon further review, it appears that __RC is using EB-5 capital to construct commercial buildings. The job creation estimates employed in this application are based, at least in part, on the assumptions that direct employees of the future tenants of the buildings can be utilized as inputs into the applicable input-output model. However, USCIS has concerns that the attribution of these direct jobs to the EB-5 investment may not be based on reasonable economic methodologies, and therefore do not demonstrate in “verifiable detail” that the requisite jobs will be created. Rather, contemporary economic methodologies appear to indicate that such jobs would be more appropriately be attributed to the tenants themselves and not to __RC because the demand for labor precedes the decision about where to house that labor as a general economic principle. For example, if a federal agency determined that additional federal employees needed to be hired to fulfill the agency’s mission at a particular location, the federal agency would see to hire the requisite number of employees and as part of that process, would also take steps to lease the appropriate physical premises to provide sufficient workspace for the new hires. In this instance, it is the federal agency that is creating the jobs through its decision to hire more employees, not the landlord who will ultimately lease the workspace to the federal agency.
USCIS observes that the tenant-occupancy methodology (that the direct jobs created by future tenants are intended to be attributable to the EB-5 investments) is not economically reasonable on the facts as presented. To allow for the existing methodology would require USCIS to credit the prospective EB-5 investors in the new commercial enterprise with the employment impacts created by the unrelated business ventures of future tenants (even though such tenants might engage in business activities within the requested industry categories and NAICS codes). After reviewing the tenant-occupancy methodology presented thus far, USCIS observes that the nexus between the investment and the job creation is either too attenuated or too incomplete to constitute a reasonable economic methodology. Consequently, the existing record presents USCIS with a justification to recognize only those employment impacts that could be attributed to __RC, such as those resulting indirectly from the construction activity and, if applicable, the ongoing building management activities that will be required to maintain the building.
However, USCIS does not foreclose the possibility that __RC might present additional evidence to demonstrate an economically acceptable nexus between the EB-5 investment and responsibility for the job creation asserted in the application. Accordingly, __RC may present additional evidence to demonstrate that the proposed methodology is economically reasonable.
To help illustrate the factors that USCIS finds central to adjudicating the fundamental reasonableness of this particular economic methodology, USCIS requests that any response address the following points:
- Evidence that there is excess demand for the specific types of tenants (various tenants as indicated in the business plan and economic analysis) to your construction project and business plan. Please provide a data-based assessment, and the source of data utilized by the assessment. To show such excess demand, the assessment should:
a. Analyze: whether prospective tenants which would locate in the commercial space that will be constructed and/or renovated under the proposed project are currently suffering from a lack of a unique or specialized business space, that, in economic terms, such prospective tenants are “constrained” from commencing or expanding their businesses by a lack of unique or specialized business space.
b. Provide a data-based analysis, including the source of data, which establishes whether there is “pent-up” demand for the specific professional and business services relevant to your project. Such data-based analysis should include:
i. Evidence of congestion externalities as demonstrated by a low vacancy-unemployment ratio pursuant to specific space and businesses seeking to expand, respectively; and
ii. Evidence of upward wage and rental pressures in specific regional sectors that are likely to be attracted to the proposed project space.
- The jobs that become located within the tenant space of the project should be shown to be a result of an expansion in specific services driven by your project as opposed to tenant shifting and/or relocation of already-existing jobs. Please explain how it will be verified that the jobs that will become located within the tenant space of the project can be considered “new” jobs.
Alternatively __RC is afforded the opportunity to provide business plans and an economic impact analysis for any industry categories and NAICS codes to demonstrate employment creation which is not based on tenant occupancy.