EB-5 Form Processing Update through FY2023 Q3 (June 2023)
September 25, 2023 6 Comments
USCIS has updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data page with reports for forms filed and processed through June 30, 2023.
Highlights from EB-5 Data in The Q3 All USCIS Application and Petition Form Types report
- I-956 and I-956F Processing Times: The report states median processing times for Form I-956 (10.8 months) and Form I-956F (11.1 months), which should help people inquiring with USCIS and considering Mandamus actions. (This is useful reference because the Processing Times page does not report yet on I-956 or I-956F. The USCIS-reported times are practically meaningless for prediction, since they’re calculated as the median processing time only of the ≈77 I-956 and the “D” I-956F processed to date, with no adjustment for the waiting time of the hundreds of applications NOT processed. But pending applicants can still use the USCIS-reported times to their advantage when communicating with USCIS.)
- Post-RIA EB-5 Demand and Processing: The report shows steady uptick in the number I-526 and I-526E filings, with a total 1,898 post-RIA investor I-526 and I-526E pending as of June 30, 2023. That represents enough EB-5 investors under the new law as of June to claim anywhere from 3,000 to 6,000 visas, depending on approval rates and family size. How we would like to know the country and TEA category distribution of this accumulating visa demand! We’d also like to know whether any of these applicants will be able to claim some of the plentiful FY2024 visas, or if we can expect them to reach the visa stage in future years with smaller visa availability. The number of I-526/I-526E adjudications was still too small to report as of June 30, and processing time listed as “N/A”.
- Pre-RIA Petition Adjudication: In Q3, USCIS reported processing slightly fewer I-526 and slightly more I-829 than in the previous quarter. Overall, the processing volume in Q3 looks like great improvement if compared to last year, but still bad if compared to any other time period. The improvement so far is very welcome, but must escalate to get IPO out of its deep processing hole. Dividing petitions pending at the end of Q3 by petitions processed during Q3, I get the following equations for time to clear the backlog if USCIS continued processing at the same rate as in Q3. I-526: 10,802/888=12 quarters to clear the I-526 backlog. I-829: 10,507/474=22 quarters to clear the I-829 backlog. (See my Processing Data page for charts illustrating how adjudications have been spread across filing dates.)
- Denial Rates: Denial rates in Q3 were thankfully lower than in recent quarters: 28% for I-526 and 6% for I-829.
- Errata: Comparing the Q3 year-to-date report and pending numbers with previous data reports, I find once more that USCIS is either regularly overestimating and then correcting previously-reported numbers, or regularly losing petitions from the inventory. My charts make the assumption that Q3 numbers are correct where they conflict with previous reports.
EB-5 Form Data from FY2023 Q3 Data Report (April 1, 2023 to June 30, 2023)
| Form | Received | Approved | Denied | Total Processed | Pending | Processing Time |
| I-526 (Pre-RIA) | – | 637 | 251 | 888 | 10,802 | 48.2 |
| I-526 | 50 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 137 | N/A |
| I-526E | 649 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,761 | N/A |
| I-829 | 484 | 444 | 30 | 474 | 10,507 | 48.6 |
| I-956 | 41 | 48 | D | H | 273 | 10.8 |
| I-956F | 61 | D | – | D | 187 | 11.1 |
| I-956G | 12 | – | – | – | 276 | N/A |
| I-956H | 493 | – | – | – | 2,635 | N/A |
| I-956K | 258 | – | – | – | N/A | N/A |
Report of EB-5 Forms Processed and Pending FY2023 to date from FY2023 Q3 Data Report
| Form | Total Processed October 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023 | Total Pending at June 30, 2023 |
| I-526 (Pre-RIA) | 1,930 | 10,802 |
| I-526 | N/A | 137 |
| I-526E | N/A | 1,761 |
| I-829 | 1,252 | 10,507 |
| I-956 | H | 273 |
| I-956F | D | 187 |
| I-956G | – | 276 |
| I-956H | – | 2,635 |
| I-956K | – | N/A |
| I-924 | D | 40 |
| I-924A | – | 1,734 |
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If I-526 (pre-RIA) processing times are reported at 48.2 months to end of Q3, then why does the USCIS site now calculate processing times at 55.5 months, recently down from 58 months?
The USCIS processing time main page reports the 80th and 93rd percentile ages in recent adjudications (because the function of that page is mainly to forestall inquiries by setting the bar in outlier territory), while the USCIS historical times page and the USCIS processing data page report the median age.
Thanks Suzanne! My I-526 (PD Oct, 2018, Taiwan born) is still pending. Should I just continue to wait? Fortunately, my I-765 & I-131 came through after new concurrent filing provision but it is so frustrating to wait on I-526 adjudication.
You might speak with your lawyer about options to apply pressure. The IPO Customer Service email box is free to try (and very occasionally yields a response), and Mandamus may be an option (though often not successful recently). But anyway the reality is that an October 2018 I-526 still pending has been left behind. As you can see from my Processing Data page, IPO is currently mostly adjudicating I-526 filed in late 2019. And even according to the USCIS processing times page, your case is older than 80% of I-526 adjudicated in the last six months.
Thank you Suzanne. Will consult with lawyer for next steps.
Thanks Suzanne for all your hard work and painstaking research. My I-526 (PD Nov 2019, Kuwait born) is still pending adjudication. Do you have any insight why the adjudication should take so long considering there is no backlog for Kuwait. The only saving grace is my I-765 & I-131 came through after the new concurrent filing provision.