Set-aside visa issuance and demand

As someone alarmed by the EB-5 set-aside visa pipeline backlogs already accumulated as of 2024, I have had two hopes for 2025: high set-aside visa issuance and reasonably low new I-526E filings. I want to see as many as possible rural and high unemployment visas issued this year, taking a maximum bite from the backlogs, and I don’t want to see the timing outlook worsen considerably. But the reality seems to be otherwise. It appears that the Trump administration’s threats to EB-5 have not dampened but are actually spurring new EB-5 demand — contradicting my guesses from a couple weeks ago. And the latest published monthly visa issuance data (as of January 2025) shows set-aside visa issuance remaining extremely low, at least through consulates. The following chart illustrates the numbers informing my current impression that new EB-5 set-aside investors in coming months can likely still expect a “current” visa bulletin (due to distance between FY2025 visa availability and visa issuance so far) but may also face a dire wait for a visa number (due to distance between pipeline applicants and forthcoming visa availability overall). It’s so tough to make educated decisions when the visa situation is so dynamic, and lacking real-time data, but I keep trying to keep a sense of the big picture in view.