October 2025 I-485 report and December 2025 Visa Bulletin

USCIS has published another pending I-485 inventory report as of October 2, 2025. The December 2025 Visa Bulletin is out, with forward movement for EB-5 Unreserved and no notes about forthcoming Reserved dates. Department of State continues to not publish monthly visa issuance reports, not publish the FY2026 visa limit, and not publish the NVC waitlist. What can we learn? I look for insights into what happened with EB-5 visa issuance in FY2025, and hints for Rural, High Unemployment, and Unreserved outlook this fiscal year.

Rural and HUA Visa Issuance in FY2025

Rural and High Unemployment visa issuance through adjustment of status in FY2025 looks higher than I expected. Drilling down to month-by-month changes in I-485 inventory reports throughout the year, it appears that over 600 HUA and over 1,200 Rural AOS visas could have been issued between October 3, 2024 and October 2, 2025. With these numbers in AOS alone, it’s possible that DOS ultimately managed to issue at least the 1,150 HUA and 2,300 Rural carryover visas available in FY2025. If so, that would mean no transfer of unused FY25 carryovers to Unreserved in FY26 (and no net loss to Reserved, since FY25’s new-issue Reserved visas stay with Reserved in FY26).

Comparing monthly I-485 inventory reports merely shows changes, which aren’t all caused by approvals/issued visas. But the pattern continues to suggest that AOS visa issuance is far from orderly by priority date, and that Indian applicants have enjoyed an outsize percentage of I-485 processing activity. (Thank you to the reader who sent me his spreadsheet with data from each monthly I-485 report entered in tandem, facilitating a more granular analysis than my previous bookend-month comparison approach.)  

Rural and HUA Visa Issuance in FY2026

It appears that the pace of Rural and High Unemployment visa issuance through consular processing must remain low in FY2026 to date. Considering the pace of I-526E approvals, there are probably 4,000+ Rural applicants and quite possibly 2,000+ High Unemployment applicants currently qualified and waiting for visas. But three months into FY2026, the Visa Bulletin is not yet warning about forthcoming Rural or HUA cut-off dates. I conclude that slow consulates have been organically controlling the crowd with low-volume interview scheduling, such that DOS currently still doubts the operational feasibility of issuing 2,000 HUA or 4,000 Rural visas this year. Slow-walking the Reserved visa backlogs is good for new U.S.-based investors who can keep using the concurrent filing window. It’s good for any salesmen who rely on lying that backlogs don’t exist until flagged in the Visa Bulletin. The consulate slow walk is bad for EB-5 investors abroad who fall behind U.S.-based applicants, and bad for wait times overall as the backlog can’t advance and dissipate on schedule.

Rural and HUA Demand Trends

Since I-485 are concurrently filed with I-526E, we can get a sense of recent I-526E trends by looking at priority dates in the I-485 inventory. No surprise, the numbers for July to September 2025 priority dates suggest that India-born Rural investors continue to drive U.S.-based EB-5 demand.   

India Unreserved Backlog and Outlook

When will pre-2022 India Unreserved applicants finish getting visas? People keep thinking “in about a year” because the Visa Bulletin has been a tease. The India Unreserved Final Action Date moved to 2020 two years ago, and to 2022 last year, only to retrogress back and forth. The history shows that one can’t look at any given final action date and conclude “everyone with priority dates within this final action date can expect to get visas shortly.”

The December 2025 Visa Bulletin moved the Indian Unreserved FAD to July 1, 2021. Does this now mean that all Indians with priority dates before July 2021 could get visas shortly? Consider that FY2026 has a minimum of 470 and possibly up to 600 visas for India Unreserved (with the upside depending on as-yet unknown rollover/carryover visas) — and this allocation has to cover consular processing as well as status adjustment. The October 2025 I-485 pending report shows 475 pending I-485 for Indians with pre-July 2021 priority dates. DOS hasn’t published a recent NVC wait list, but it’s likely not empty. (For the record, 2,019 India Unreserved applicants were reported registered at NVC as of May 2024, and likely <1,200 India Unreserved visas have been issued through consulates since May 2024.)

With over 700 Indians still waiting in the U.S. for Unreserved visas, the pre-RIA India backlog could hardly clear this year even if India Unreserved applicants abroad had disappeared. Considering backlog numbers I think it’s safe to expect that the India FAD will retrogress again to 2019 shortly (November 2019 is the major hurdle to pass), and not permanently progress past 2022 for another couple years. This is a controversial question — if you have a different take, please explain it!

China Unreserved

When will pre-RIA China Unreserved applicants finish getting visas? The December 2025 Visa Bulletin moved the China Unreserved Final Action Date to July 14, 2016 – a leap forward from last month, but only returning to where the Visa Bulletin was a year ago for China. The pending I-485 report does not add much insight for China, since most China-born applicants get visas through consular processing. I will copy in for reference the last available breakdown of NVC applicants awaiting consular processing (as of May 2024).

As illustrated, 2016 priority date are a crowd to work through. (And the table captured only the subset of applicants at NVC, not including applicants on I-485 or I-526 pending at USCIS.) I look forward to the publication of an updated NVC waitlist (which should be significantly reduced following FY25 visa issuance and DOS efforts to cull inactive applicants) and recent numbers for visa issuance in Guangzhou (which might be higher than expected, given Visa Bulletin movement). And I copy for reference my comparison of USCIS I-485 inventory reports for China Unreserved from the beginning and end of FY2025 (though I’m not sure what to conclude from it).

Rest of World Unreserved

For countries other than China and India, when will pre-2022 applicants finish getting Unreserved visas? And are new investors choosing to request Unreserved visas? The I-485 inventory reports reflect what happened with status adjustment in FY2025. As usual, I puzzle over the question of order, and why some recent priority dates leave the inventory while older applicants remain pending. I also notice a small but increasing trend of post-RIA priority dates in the Unreserved I-485 inventory. I assume that the trend reflects Rural and HUA investors who decide to bet that an Unreserved visa might get issued first, considering the Rural and HUA crowds and the low rate of Reserved visa issuance to date. (Or some ROW applicants may be kindly requesting Unreserved to leave space for more Chinese and Indian investors to share the small Rural and HUA allocation). I expect the trend of ROW applicants requesting Unreserved visas to continue to increase, especially once enough HUA I-526E get approved to trigger Visa Bulletin cut-off dates for all countries in HUA.

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EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025 – UPDATE with June 2025 data

The EB-5 Backlog Analysis Excel file linked to my EB-5 Timing Page has received another significant update. I incorporated data now available through June 2025, and adjusted the analysis. As demand grows, so does the need to think creatively about timing. Is there a way to look at the EB-5 inventory numbers and conclude “relax, this is not a backlog problem?” Is it possible to calculate an attractive EB-5 visa path for investors from China and India? This is what I’m thinking as I sweat over Excel, trying to model in complications and nuances and imagine best-case scenarios for visa availability.

The Big Picture

We now know that up to June 2025, over 6,000 Rural investors and over 6,000 High Unemployment investors had started the EB-5 process. How long could it take those investors to finish getting visas, considering about 2,000 Rural and 1,000 HU visas to be shared annually by investors, spouses, and children? If 12,000+ investors become 24,000+ visa applicants going for about 3,000 annual visas, what could happen? What happens if we continue to attract 5,000 investors per year, even if all 10,000 annual EB-5 visas were available to give to new investors plus family? Can the situation be saved by one year of carryover visa issuance, by denial/attrition rates, by government reporting error, by category switching, and/or by extra visas?

The big picture problem is clear, but the details are complicated. I bother copying data into Excel and attempting models because there are a lot of moving parts and possible assumptions between what’s known about the waiting line and what we want to assess: prospective visa wait times. Below, a few comments on my recent revisions to the Excel file linked to my EB-5 Timing Page.

What Changed in the Model  – Input Data

EB-5 waiting lines are changing in real time, as more people start the process daily while others move on with visas. The previous version of my Excel model was set up with projections assuming that then-unknown incoming EB-5 demand in 2025 was mirroring demand in 2024. Now with actual I-526/I-526E receipt data published through June 2025, we can start to correct that assumption. As it turns out, demand has been trending upward, with the first 9 months of 2025 already exceeding total I-526/I-526E filings in 2024. Two types of demand have particularly steep spikes this year: demand for Rural investments, and demand from India-born investors. More people getting in a line naturally lengthens expected wait times for that line over previous estimates.

And then there’s the question of queue movement: adjudication rates and visa issuance volume. When I originally set up the Excel model for backlog analysis, I didn’t account for past visa issuance because it had been so low at that point, and I optimistically assumed that Rural and High Unemployment petition approvals and visa issuance would finally reach volume in 2025. With that assumption, I assumed that 2025 carryover reserved visas would not be lost, and that country caps could shortly apply in response to high Rural and HU applicant volume. Those assumptions facilitated some simplified scenarios that I’ve now deleted from the model. Now we know that the Visa Bulletin never moved in FY2025, and that cap limits on China and India could be deferred for an extended time due to low visa issuance volume. Revising predictions in light of low backlog movement means assuming fewer total Rural and High Unemployment visas issued (worse for wait times overall), but more visas issued to China-born and India-born applicants (better for China/India wait time predictions).

What Changed in the Model – Alternate Approach

I’ve noted alternate approaches to backlog analysis: a basic approach that I’ve typically used, and the industry standard approach. The formula is the same, but the approaches solve for different variables.

In the industry standard approach, the result – that EB-5 wait times must be tolerable (i.e. “about 5 years or less”) — is entered as a given, and then one solves for the levels of failure, attrition, double-counting, reporting error, category-switching, and/or extra visas needed to achieve that result. I tried to set up the revised model to facilitate this approach, setting up scenarios where one can assign values to a variety of assumptions to make a quantitative bridge between A (available data on people in line) and D (the conclusion of a tolerable wait time).

The industry standard approach has validity, considering that the variables don’t represent inert data points but people with limited lives and patience who are only going to hold out for a green card for as long as is tolerable/possible/feasible. When my basic approach divides 6,000+ China Rural applicants by the minimum 140 annual Rural visas certainly available to China, the result “43+” can’t mean that anyone in real life will wait 43+ years for a visa. Factors like category-switching and attrition can result in actual visa issuance above the theoretical minimum, and in actual visa applicants below baseline expectation. But let’s not wave hands vaguely in the air over the factors, asserting that variables of unspecified value will add up to a preconceived wait time conclusion. One can start with available data, assign specific values to assumptions so that they’re open to consideration/critique, and show the work that leads to the desirable visa wait time conclusion. I’ve tried to set up my Excel file to facilitate that exercise, and invite others to improve on the attempt.  I will highlight two tabs in the revised Excel model: the Unreserved tab, and the 5YR Scenarios tab.  

What Changed in the Model – Unreserved Tab

The Unreserved tab is set up to assess when Unreserved visas could become available to post-RIA post-2022 priority dates. This is important, because Unreserved visas are technically available to Rural and High Unemployment investors (according to the codes on I-526E approval letters), but only practically available to applicants in order by priority date. Set-aside investors from China and India, who now face long lines in Rural and High Unemployment, need to know when they could start accessing Unreserved visas as well – i.e., when the Visa Bulletin will finally finish dispensing Unreserved visas to Chinese and Indians with pre-2022 priority dates, and able start moving on to later priority dates in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, etc. who haven’t managed to get Rural or HU visas yet. 

I expanded the Unreserved tab by copying in the very most granular reported data available for the Unreserved backlog. Then I highlighted cells for adding assumptions about denials/attrition at multiple stages, double-counting, and future visa issuance, and set up formulas to calculate the impact of the entered assumptions. Try adjusting the assumption cells, and see what assumption values are required to reach your conclusion about the remaining size of the legacy Unreserved backlog, and remaining time to clear that backlog. Then consider the plausibility of the assumption values. (To assist the plausibility test, the tab includes data on number of I-526 filed 2014-2022, and the number of EB-5/Unreserved visas issued 2015 to 2024.)

What Changed in the Model – 5YR Scenarios Tab

The 5YR Scenarios tab is another attempt to tackle a top question from Rural and High Unemployment investors from China and India: What will happen with visa issuance in the next five years, and could my turn at a set-aside visa number come in that time? On this tab I first highlighted available data related to Rural and HU supply and demand (I-526/I-526E receipt numbers and visa issuance through mid 2025), set up a section for inputting key assumptions about the future, and built a results section to automatically recalculate conclusions from the assumptions entered.

For the 5YR Scenarios tab assumptions section, I set up cells highlighting the two most significant demand factors factors that I see moving the needle on visa wait times for Rural and HU investors from China and India.

1. For every one who starts the EB-5 process by filing I-526/I-526E, how many visas will actually get used? Smaller family sizes and higher failure rates mean lower visa demand and shorter queues/wait times, and vice versa. (My default assumption of average 2.0 visas per I-526/I-526E filed is based on combining the historical average 2.63 EB-5 visas issued per investor with my guess at 25% future denial/attrition rate overall. But the future reality could plausibly turn out higher or lower. The model lets you adjust these cells to match your best guess.)
2. How much will investors from China and India have to compete with Rest of World demand for Rural and High Unemployment visas? Could ROW squeeze China and India down to the 7% country caps, or leave some visas unused on the table to allocate above 7%? The Rest of World prediction in the model has two parts: 1) how many ROW investors will continue to file Rural and HU I-526/I-526E on an on-going basis, and 2) how many of those investors will go on to ultimately request a Rural or HU visa rather than the Unreserved visa for which they also qualify? Less ROW visa usage would mean more visas left for cap-limited China and India applicants, and thus less-bad China/India backlogs. And vice versa. (The problem with being a cap-limited applicant is that I not only wait behind applicants with earlier priority dates, but also behind applicants who will invest later but can still have priority over me for visa issuance thanks to the country limit.)  For the ROW demand/usage assumptions I entered a limited set of scenarios in the model — mainly to illustrate how much these assumptions move the needle on future backlogs/timing for China and India. For example, prospective visa availability for current China and India Rural investors increases dramatically due to decreased competition if regional center EB-5 becomes unpopular after the 2026 grandfathering deadline, and/or permanently expires after 2027. Likewise, if many existing Rest of World investors volunteer to take Unreserved visas, that means more Rural and HU visas left for post-RIA Chinese and Indian investors who face wait times in all categories. I hope that laying out some of these “what ifs” in scenarios in Excel helps to clarify these considerations. I don’t know what will happen with future EB-5 demand, but I know that whatever happens will significantly effect wait times for Chinese and Indian investors starting the process today.

There’s quite a large range of possibility for what could happen with visa demand. Less so, I think, for supply side predictions. I entered a best guess at to-date and year-by-year Rural and HU visa issuance in the 5YR Scenarios tab, and highlighted these cells as assumptions that you can change. But I can’t think of dramatically different scenarios for estimating total visa issuance by 2030. We can assume one extra helping of visas thanks to carryover, whether Department of State manages to serve that extra helping in 2026 or 2027. We might get a few visas over average one year thanks to extras from family-based, or a few visas under average one year due to consular constraints. Actual to-date visa issuance might turn out a bit higher or lower than my guess based on data through May 2025. But overall, probably not enough variation over the period to make a great difference — unless DOS continued indefinitely to issue <2000 Rural and <1000 HU visas, thus losing many visas, or unless the law changes visa availability/allocation.

The calculations on the 5YR Scenarios tab are set up to reach a conclusion for this question: how many China-born and India-born applicants with priority dates before June 2025 may not have Rural or High Unemployment visas yet by 2030?  The calculation totals up demand that may be competing with these applicants (based on given data and the assumptions that you enter for attrition and ROW demand behavior), then subtracts the estimated total visas issued through 2029. The result is an estimate of the existing Rural and HU visa demand that might not be accommodated this decade by Rural and HU visas.

If you need to conclude that a five-year visa wait is still possible for recent China-born or India-born investors, then you can try adjusting assumptions on the 5YR Scenarios tab until it’s calculating 0 set-aside demand unaccommodated by set-aside visas by 2030. And/or changing assumptions on the Unreserved tab until it’s calculating 0 pre-RIA Unreserved demand well before 2030, which would mean an early date for set-aside investors from China and India to start moving over and requesting Unreserved visas. (When I enter my default assumptions, I am seeing thousands of China-born and India-born Rural and High Unemployment investors who may not be able to get Rural or HU visas this decade, or before Unreserved visas start to become available to Chinese and Indian set-aside investors. But play with the numbers and see what you think.)

Personal Note

The EB5 Backlog Analysis Excel linked to the EB-5 Timing Page is my live internal working tool for thinking about backlog questions – not a complete or comprehensive product. I share the link out of generosity and because EB-5 is full of smart people who can take the work further.  Download the file, look at the data, critique the formulas, and add your improvements. Or check back in a few weeks to see what changes have occurred to me. I make frequent edits as I get new info or new ideas or notice errors. If you’d like to discuss visa availability/timing questions one-on-one, my consultation service remains available. If you find the Excel data collection and/or models useful for your own analysis, consider my Stripe or Paypal links as a way to support the effort.

Conclusion

Backing up again to the big picture: Unreserved, Rural, and High Unemployment visa applicants in the pipeline exceed forthcoming visa availability. That’s a fact under any calculation – the questions are how much excess, who’s affected, and when the excess will be felt in the Visa Bulletin. Considering the documented and growing EB-5 demand in excess of forthcoming visa supply, do we face:

• (1) discouragingly-long visa wait times, particularly for China and India, or
• (2) discouragingly-high failure/denial rates, or
• (3) rescue from Washington, D.C. in the form of visa relief?

Those are the three options. Where A*B/C=D, and A is a given number of investors/applicants queued up for visas, the wait time D isn’t coming down except by discounting demand with low success rate B or increasing C visas available. I hope that the industry is ready and able to bet on visa relief rather than applicant failure to underwrite the future. I am happy to see visa advocacy discussions in progress. CanAm highlights the issue in a new whitepaper EB-5 After the RIA (with sections by experts around the industry), and is hosting a webinar with IIUSA’s Aron Grau and Lee Li on November 18 that will address visa advocacy among other topics. And the final article in Fall 2025 IIUSA Regional Center Business Journal is “Wasted Set-Aside Visas and A Call for Urgent Action to USCIS” by Lee Li and Joey Barnett.

Interpreting the report of I-526 Approved Petitions Awaiting Visa Final Priority Dates

Quarterly reports at the USCIS Citizenship and Immigration Data page include a confusing report titled “Form I-140, I-360, I-526 Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Final Priority Dates.” I’ll explain how I interpret this report.

I added yellow underlining to the screenshot to highlight key interpretive clues. The data refers to “approved” I-526/E petitions only (not to all filed or pending petitions). It does not cover all approved petitions, but only the subset of approved petitions that are defined as “awaiting visa availability.” And “awaiting visa availability” is defined with reference to a given monthly visa bulletin Final Action Dates chart.

Therefore, to interpret the USCIS report, I turn first to the referenced Visa Bulletin (June 2025, according to Note 6 in the report) and I check the EB-5 Unreserved Chart A dates that month: January 22, 2014 for China, and May 1, 2019 for India. I then interpret the USCIS report to say: “We have approved 30,313 I-526 for 5^th Unreserved China investors who have priority dates later than January 22, 2014. We have approved 755 I-526 for 5^th Unreserved India investors who have priority dates later than May 1, 2019. Since these priority dates are later than the final action date in the visa bulletin, the cut-off for visa availability, the assumption is that these approved investors don’t have LPR status yet and are still awaiting visa availability. (We’re overlooking the complication that the June 2025 Visa Bulletin retrogressed, so it happens that some approved investors with these priority dates used to be current and thus could’ve already received visas. We are also, by definition, not counting investors who are waiting for visas but whose I-526 we have not approved yet.)”

Compare to the March 2025 USCIS report, which referenced the March 2025 Visa Bulletin to define the cutoff for visa availability.

EB-5 Unreserved Chart A dates in the March 2025 Visa Bulletin were July 15, 2016 for China, and January 1, 2022 for India. I then interpret the March 2025 USCIS report to say: “We have approved 12,117 I-526 for 5^th Unreserved China-born investors who have priority dates later than July 15, 2016. We have approved 116 I-526 for 5^th Unreserved India investors who have priority dates later than January 1, 2022. We’re not the agency that issues visas but we’re offering the data that we do have – for I-526 approvals — as a hint at the number of petitioners who may still be awaiting visa availability. We are overlooking the complication that in practice approved investors with priority dates BEFORE the visa bulletin final action date may also not have visas yet for for one reason or another. And by definition we’re not counting still-pending I-526, and not counting spouses or children.”

USCIS report numbers between March 2025 and June 2025 are so very different primarily because the two reports are counting a different subset of petition approvals, as defined by different visa bulletin dates. “I-526 approvals for priority dates since June 2016” is a smaller segment than “I-526 approvals for priority dates since January 2014.” A bit of adjudication activity between measurements adds to the difference, but basically the two reports are measuring different things. It’s not that the China backlog abruptly increased in three months from 12,117 to 30,313. The USCIS report numbers are not referring to a total backlog at all, but very specifically to different date-defined segments of approved I-526.

The USCIS report is confusing partly due to the disconnect with what the public wants. The public wants to know how many EB-5 applicants are still waiting for visas. It’s impossible to derive that information from this USCIS report, despite its enticing title. The report simply gives limited information for a segment of the backlog – principals not dependents, approved petitions not pending petitions, and only those approved petitions after a specified Visa Bulletin cut-off date. Furthermore, I judge it impossible that this report actually excludes petitions on behalf of individuals that have obtained LPR status, as Note 8 claims. USCIS isn’t the visa-issuing agency, and how would USCIS know who all of their approved I-526 petitioners went on to LPR? I guess that USCIS has no ready way to judge who exactly is “awaiting visa availability,” except to simply look at a current visa bulletin and take that as a definition of which priority dates might not have visas yet. Finally, the USCIS report numbers make sense when interpreted as a number of I-526 approvals within certain dates (compared against other data for I-526 filings for the same dates and approval volumes), and don’t match up if one expects them to represent still-pending applicants (compared against data for actual pending visa applicants and visa issuance).  30,000 is a plausible number for total I-526 approvals for China Unreserved with priority dates after January 2014, considering about 43,000 China I-526 filed from January 2014 to March 2022. It is not plausible as a number of China-born principal Unreserved applicants still waiting for visas as of 2025, considering that Chinese investors with PD later than January 2014 have in fact been getting visas since 2016, per previous visa bulletins, and data reports showed just over 33,000 total Chinese applicants (principals plus spouses and children) registered at NVC and on pending I-485 as of mid 2024.

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I-485 processing to September 2025

The November 2025 visa bulletin is out, with no changes to EB-5 dates and no warnings about future retrogression. We don’t know yet what’s happening with consular processing, since monthly visa issuance reports still haven’t been updated since May, but USCIS just published a report of I-485 pending as of September 2025.

Comparing the I-485 pending inventory as of September 2025 with the inventory as of October 2024 gives a hint at the volume and distribution of status adjustment visas issued in FY2025. Only a rough hint, since new receipts and denials also contribute to inventory change, the comparison misses change in intermediate months, and numbers <11 are redacted. But inventory report comparisons at least give some window into visa processing.

Looking at the I-485 inventory report comparisons for High Unemployment and Rural, I’m struck by the low volumes overall, exceptions to FIFO order, and timing differences by country. A wide range of priority date months show a handful of applicants disappear while dozens of others with the same PD remain pending. The lack of visa FIFO presumably originates in non-FIFO I-526/I-526E processing, since I-485 can’t be decided until the I-526/I-526E is approved or denied. I see that India-born applicants have lead the way both in terms of volume and dates for I-485 inventory changes. I assume this is because Indians have been most aggressive with I-526 mandamus actions. But volumes have been so low overall. I assume that the distribution of I-485 decisions will tighten as I-526/I-526E adjudication volumes increase.

For Unreserved, I’m particularly interested to notice a significant number of post-RIA Unreserved applicants. I doubt that many people have invested at the $1.05 million level, so assume that many/most of these post-2022 Unreserved applicants represent Rural or High Unemployment investors who chose to request Unreserved visas. I also note the number of India Unreserved I-485 pending as of September 2025. One would think, looking at the Visa Bulletin alone, that the India Unreserved backlog is on track to clear out this year. That seems less likely when one considers over 600 India Unreserved I-485 still pending as of September 2025, not to mention however many India-born applicants are still registered with NVC for consular processing.

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FY2025 Q3 processing data analysis

This is the first of a series of posts about USCIS receipt and processing data for FY2025 Q3 (April to June 2025), now published on the Immigration and Citizenship Data page. I’ll start with charts highlighting significant points from the All Forms report.

Overall Processing Productivity

I had been alarmed by the downward trend in EB-5 processing volumes, and happy to see a significant upswing in Q3 — primarily driven by increase to the number of post-RIA I-526 and I-526E processed. It’s good to see the Investor Program Office using the processing resources it evidently has, considering past volumes.

Post-RIA Processing Volume Trend (I-526 and I-526E)

The spike in post-RIA I-526/I-526E processing could well have generated more than enough qualified applicants by now for all 4,000 Rural and 2,000 High Unemployment visas available in FY2026. This is particularly true if high adjudication volume continued into Q4 — and I expect it did, considering that the “net backlog” report indicates over 3,000 I-526E actively in process of adjudication as of Q3. But I’m not certain, because the breakdown of approvals by TEA category is unreported. And we don’t have data yet for the other factor needed to predict retrogression: Has Department of State also increased its processing volume, thus allowing qualified applicants to get matched with visas? So there is not currently a data-based answer to the question of when the Visa Bulletin will have cut-off dates for Rural and High Unemployment.

Post-RIA denial trend

The FY2025 year-to-date section of the USCIS report shows 114 I-526E denials (just 6% of total processed) and 35 post-RIA direct I-526 denials (75% of total processed). Apparently, USCIS is currently mostly processing regional center cases they can approve and direct cases they can deny. Direct EB-5 has always required very careful preparation, and I’m happy to report that two of my business plan clients were among the handful of direct I-526 that got approved in 2025. Regional center adjudications are now divided into two forms, with projects first assessed in I-956F and then investors in I-526E. When projects get denied, I-526E denials will follow for investors in those projects. USCIS reported denying 50 I-956F in FY2024, and 45 I-956F in FY2025 YTD (20% of total projects adjudicated in 24/25). Maybe USCIS is waiting for project denial appeals before pulling and denying the I-526E for investors in those 95 projects.

Post-RIA Processing Trend (I-956 and I-956F)

I-956 regional center application volumes remain low. I-956F project application processing has dipped below receipt numbers as of 2025, causing the backlog to inch up again.

Pre-RIA Processing Trend (Legacy I-526 and I-829) and Processing Times

USCIS has nearly finished clearing the legacy I-526 inventory (with the “net backlog” now down to just 100 forms). The reported legacy I-526 processing time is extremely high only because recent decisions have been on old China I-526 held back by visa availability. For I-829, quarterly processing volumes continue to nearly keep pace with receipts. So the I-829 backlog has been holding steady, neither growing nor shrinking overall. With 7,000+ I-829 pending, how can the median I-829 processing time be only 10.8 months, as reported? Evidently, USCIS has not been processing I-829 in FIFO order. I assume this reflects the impact of Mandamus actions. Reported processing times (which reflect timing for the subset of cases that DID get happen to get adjudicated during the period) should always be looked at in context of the volume and age of pending petitions not getting adjudicated.

Post-RIA Demand Trend

I’ll write a separate post on the TEA-specific new Q3 data and backlog analysis, but I will start with a couple charts to contemplate. Demand from Rural and High Unemployment investors has grown extremely far above the level possible support with timely visas (with 2025 levels proving even higher than 2024). Especially considering that only 38% of EB-5 visas have historically gone to investors, on average, while the remaining get absorbed by spouses and children. Country caps, Unreserved visas, and non-FIFO processing give space for complicated mixing and matching such that some investors won’t have to wait as long as others for visas. But the overall picture shows EB-5 demand so high by June 2025 that visa wait times would exist even if post-RIA investors had access to the full 10,000 or so annual EB-5 visas, not to mention competing for the 32% of visas set-aside. 2026/2027 will have to see either visa relief or a demand crash.

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Data victory! (FY2025 Q3 with I-526E detail)

Wonderful news to report: USCIS finally published more quarterly data (for April to June 2025) and preemptively included two new reports with I-526/I-526E receipt detail by country and TEA category! Maybe someone at USCIS wisely thought: we don’t want to see Galati Law’s name one more time — let’s just give the people what they want instead of getting sued. Thanks to AIIA and IIUSA for all the hard work on FOIA requests that helped push this good result of improved data transparency, and to USCIS for listening. You can visit the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page to access the new reports (and appreciate how much work goes into processing the raw data into the kind of analysis you find here). I’m in process of updating my spreadsheets. I will note a couple headlines: over 1,000 I-526E were approved in Q3 (4x more than the previous quarter), meaning that the pool of qualified Rural and High Unemployment visa applicants is very likely large enough by now to trigger Visa Bulletin cut-off dates, if only Department of State can catch up with interview scheduling and visa issuance. And Q3 had another bumper crop of I-526/I-526E receipts, with over 1,700 more investors added to EB-5’s economic benefit and ballooning backlogs. Important knowledge to have!

Unreserved EB-5 Visa Limit Reached

Today, Department of State announced Annual Limit Reached in the EB-5 Unreserved Category. This is good news overall — meaning that all Unreserved EB-5 visas available for FY2025 (at least 11,229 visas by my count) have been issued and won’t be lost to EB-5. The announcement clarifies that DOS did remember to include carryover of unused FY2023 Reserved visa numbers in FY2025’s Unreserved limit. I’ll be interested to see which countries ultimately benefited from the last-minute flurry of Unreserved visa issuance.

Consular interviews interview scheduling and I-485 adjustments Visa issuance for Unreserved EB-5 will now stop until FY2026 visas become available in October. (“Since all available EB-5 unreserved visas for FY 2025 have been used, embassies and consulates may not issue visas in these categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.”)

Apparently, FY2025 annual limits have sadly not been reached for EB-5 reserved categories, which means harm to the Rural and High Unemployment backlogs but future benefit to Unreserved from unused visas and carryover. For background, see my previous post on the October 2025 Visa Bulletin.

EB-5 in the October 2025 Visa Bulletin

The October 2025 visa bulletin has been published, giving the first indicator for EB-5 visa issuance in FY2026. Spoiler: the October 2025 visa bulletin imposes no filing or final action dates for EB-5 set-aside visa categories, and it has no note warning when such dates may appear in coming months. The bulletin gives Unreserved dates for China and India that are optimistic according to my backlog calculations, but less optimistic than the dates in the October 2024 visa bulletin. This post looks behind the surface of visa bulletin silence on EB-5 set-aside visas, and the retrogression for EB-5 Unreserved.

Rural and High Unemployment Visa Bulletin Silence

Why does the October 2025 visa bulletin still show “C” for all EB-5 set-aside categories? Why isn’t there any note at the base of the visa bulletin warning about cut-off dates coming soon? Because, the visa bulletin only imposes dates when there’s near-term risk of issuing more than the number of visas available in a category. That risk has not yet been triggered for Rural and High Unemployment due to (1) relatively few visa applicants and (2) even fewer visa interviews and adjustments. Reserved visa activity is apparently still low, despite thousands upon thousands of Rural and High Unemployment investors, because USCIS is not creating enough visa applicants by approving enough I-526(E) petitions, and Department of State is not issuing enough visas even to the qualified applicants it does have waiting.

Here’s an attempt to tell the story with a picture. The image shows the EB-5 process – I-526(E) processing followed by visa processing – and the issue: lots of pending and incoming I-526(E) (which aren’t considered in the visa bulletin) but relatively few petition approvals, few qualified visa applicants, and few visas issued (factors that do affect the visa bulletin). The image is more-or-less to scale, with each little ball intended to represent 100 investors, or about 200 current/future visa applicants. (Though it turns out, AI can’t really count.)

The data cited in the image is old now, since USCIS hasn’t published a data report since March 2025 and DOS hasn’t published a report since May 2025. But unless processing volumes magically improved in the unreported last six months, we may still be stuck with little set-aside visa issuance activity — and thus no visa bulletin activity yet — despite the high number of Rural and High Unemployment investors. (By the way, you can find my data collection saved together with source links on the EB5 Timing Page.) 

If you’re only wondering when the visa bulletin will announce set-aside retrogression, then you can just look at the base of the image and be comforted by relative lack of activity at the visa processing stage. If you’re wondering how long the green card process will take for a new investor, then you need to consider the entire image. A new EB-5 investor can’t skip straight to visa processing, but first waits in the I-526(E) processing funnel – which, as illustrated in the image, is already very crowded plus continually growing at a high rate and emptying at a low rate. That picture is not good for overall set-aside visa wait times.

Unreserved EB-5 Retrogression

The following chart compares Unreserved EB-5 dates in the October 2025 visa bulletin with the October 2024 visa bulletin.

The comparison helps flag one wrong way to read the visa bulletin. Don’t look at the dates in one visa bulletin and assume “everyone within these dates is going to get visas soon, and many/most people up to these dates already have visas.”

Any Chinese and Indian EB-5 applicants who got excited back in October 2024 about 2016 and 2022 dates now realize – with Department of State – that those dates were aggressive and needed to be walked back. I am not surprised by the October 2025 visa bulletin dates, because I look at the number of people reportedly queued up within those dates as compared with visas issued and available.  As I discussed last year, FY2025 did not have enough visas available to satisfy all pending Chinese EB-5 applicants with pre-2016 dates, or all Indian EB-5 applicants with pre-2022 dates. No wonder that those dates from the October 2024 visa bulletin retrogressed, even after unexpectedly-high Unreserved visa issuance to China and India in FY2025.

I guess that the China Unreserved final action date could advance again to July 2016 shortly, but will not pass September 2016 for another few years — considering that 5,334 Chinese filed I-526 in July to September 2016, and may still be waiting to claim visas with spouses and children. I expect that the India Unreserved final action date will return shortly to November 15, 2019 and stay there, considering that the November 2019 filing surge could take years to work through the system – if most of the 745 Indians who filed I-526 in November 2019 ultimately claim visas with their spouses and children.  (For the detail and data behind this analysis, see the Pre-RIA China and Pre-RIA India tabs in the EB5 Backlog Analysis Excel file linked to my EB5 Timing page. I had previously hidden those Pre-RIA tabs because they use old National Visa Center waitlist data – as of May 2024 – and I kept expecting the NVC waitlist numbers to be updated and maybe significantly reduced. I hear that Department of State has been actively culling the NVC waitlist, booting out applicants who registered but then didn’t pursue a visa within a year. If this process eliminates many potential applicants from the backlog reported as of 2024, then my model can be recalculated and wait time estimates will fall accordingly. But, for now I’m working with the data that has been published.)

A benefit (for some) of aggressive visa bulletin dates is opportunity for out-of-order visa issuance. If an Indian EB-5 applicant with a January 2021 priority date had to wait for every Indian with an earlier EB-5 priority date to get visas before his turn came, then he could expect to wait years for a visa. But when the visa bulletin makes final action technically available already to January 2021, maybe that recent investor can skip over the remaining crowd of November 2019 India priority dates and snag a lucky non-FIFO visa shortly. With the disorder in USCIS and consular processing, there’s opportunity to benefit or suffer from queue-jumping. And meanwhile, the visa bulletin is generously letting all Indians benefit from an April 2022 Date for Filing, even though the India EB-5 backlog through April 2022 doesn’t appear on track to clear for several more years.

And finally, here’s an attempt at illustrating the Unreserved EB-5 visa backlog situation in a picture. By contrast with Reserved EB-5, Unreserved has a small and shrinking backlog awaiting I-526 processing but a large crowd of qualified applicants at the visa stage, where they trigger visa bulletin traffic control.

Extra FY2025 visas for China and India (August 2025 visa bulletin)

The August 2025 Visa Bulletin has been published with a nice surprise: advanced final action dates for China Unreserved and India Unreserved. These countries had retrogressed back in April 2025, effectively shutting down the flow of Unreserved EB-5 visas for the year to China and India. Now the Visa Bulletin is moving dates forward to allow more visa issuance to these countries in August and September — the last months of this fiscal year. Chart A moved to December 8, 2015 for China and to November 15, 2019 for India.

I’m quoting below the notes at the base of the Visa Bulletin that explain the changes. Basically, when one country/category gets more visas, it means that another is having problems. China EB-5 will get more 2025 visas after all because Department of State has not managed to allocate visas to Rest of World EB-5 applicants. (The Visa Bulletin delicately says: “[rest of world] EB-5 number use has not materialized to the degree that was expected.” This might mean that the thousands of ROW EB-5 applicants registered at NVC have disappeared. But I’m readier to blame consulates for failing to schedule interviews and request numbers for ROW applicants who are ready to go.) Meanwhile, DOS credits low family-based visa issuance for extra visas now being made available at year-end to India EB-5.

The following chart shows how monthly EB-5 visa issuance to China and India dropped after April retrogression, but without any increase to ROW visa issuance. Now we can expect China and India numbers to spike up again for August and September 2025, while Rest of World applicants can look forward to their backlog being punted to 2026. (My previous post discussed how the ROW waitlist as of 2023 mostly did not get 2024 visas but instead pushed into 2025.)

Quoting from the August 2025 Visa Bulletin:

F.  VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED CATEGORY FOR CHINA

In the April 2025 Visa Bulletin, the EB-5 Unreserved final action date for China was retrogressed due to high Rest of World demand.  In the months that followed, EB-5 number use has not materialized to the degree that was expected.  Consequently, and in accordance with INA 202(a)(5), the EB-5 Unreserved final action dates for China has advanced to allow continued EB-5 Unreserved number use.  Note that if at any time the EB-5 Unreserved annual limit were reached, it would be necessary to immediately make the preference category “unavailable”, and no further requests for numbers would be honored. 

G.  VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED CATEGORY FOR INDIA

In the April 2025 Visa Bulletin, the EB-5 Unreserved final action date for India was retrogressed due to high demand.  It is expected that India will have unused family sponsored preference numbers that, under INA 202(a)(2), can fall down for use in the employment-based categories, including EB-5 Unreserved.  As a result, the final action date for EB-5 Unreserved has been advanced to use these available numbers.  Note that if at any time the EB-5 Unreserved annual limit were reached, it would be necessary to immediately make the preference category “unavailable”, and no further requests for numbers would be honored. 

I look forward to hearing what Joey Barnett and Charlie Oppenheim have to say about the August Visa Bulletin in the next episode of WR Immigration’s Chatting with Charlie.

Major Data Update (FY2024 Visa Report, FY2025 Q2 data, FY2025 I-485 and visa progress, visa interview timing)

It’s time to feast after a famine of EB-5 data. We finally have the Report of the Visa Office 2024 (though not the NVC Waiting list yet), monthly immigrant visa issuance numbers through May 2025, the monthly pending I-485 report to April 2025, and EB-5 form receipt and processing data through FY2025 Q2 (January to March 2025). Before copying summary charts, I’ll start with lessons I take from the data updates for pre-RIA investors, post-RIA investors, and regional centers.

Data Insights for Pre-RIA EB-5 Investors

Department of State issued a record 14,501 Unreserved EB-5 visas in FY2024 — even more than technically available under the quota. China, India, and Vietnam did especially well. Vietnam cleared its legacy NVC waitlist with 1,522 Unreserved visas issued, India got 1,323 Unreserved visas (within 7% of the total EB-5 visas theoretically available to India, considering set-asides, but 9% of Unreserved), and China cleaned up with 9,312 Unreserved visas — 64% of visas issued in FY2024. (A few Unreserved visas even got allocated to post-RIA Chinese and Indian applicants — can anyone explain?) Other countries fell behind. Of “other” country EB-5 applicants who were registered at the National Visa Center in November 2023, only 38% got visas in FY2024. The other 62% were not constrained by any cap or quota limit, but by DOS capacity to schedule interviews and USCIS ability to complete I-485.

The answer to the question “who gets a visa” doesn’t only depend on priority date and country limits, but also depends on country-specific processing capacity. I’d like to highlight a helpful new page on the DOS website: IV Scheduling Status Tool. The page explains the visa interview process and factors, and gives timing by post. Post-specific timing differences for immigrant visas generally help explain the differences we see in EB-5 visa issuance. For example, the tool shows that NVC is currently scheduling documentarily complete IV cases with visas available from February 2025 in Ho Chi Minh City, but from March 2023 in Lagos. The page itemizes factors that can affect visa interview times by post, including interview capacity of the embassy or consulate, local conditions that affect operations, staffing levels, volume of cases, and vetting timelines.

Meanwhile at USCIS, the legacy I-526 backlog continues to shrink — but slowly. Fewer than 2,000 I-526 remain pending (and only 300 unassigned), but processing volume dropped from nearly 2,000 in Q2 2024 to only 656 in Q2 2025. Denial rates for old I-526 remain relatively high – 30% in Q2.

I-829 processing volumes in FY2025 Q2 were half what they were this time last year, and not FIFO. The FY2025 Q2 report shows about 1,000 I-829 processed, nearly 7,000 left pending, and a median processing time for completed I-829 of only 8.2 months. This tells me that Mandamus actions are having an impact, causing USCIS to pick out and adjudicate many recently-filed I-829 even as many older cases remain pending.

FY2025 remains on track to issue all available Unreserved visas. ROW should have a good chance at more visas since the Visa Bulletin retrogressed for China in April and India in May. (However, as of May 2025 the effect was to lower visa issuance for China and India without increasing ROW visa issuance.)

Data Insights for Post-RIA EB-5 Investors

The data is not good news from a post-RIA investor perspective. Already-too-large backlogs are getting larger, and an already-too-slow process has been slowing down. Set-aside visa issuance proved low in FY2024 (just 332 Rural and 91 High Unemployment visas issued), and has stalled since March 2025. I-526/I-526E adjudication volume was already low in 2024 and has fallen since then (with just 219 processed in FY2025 Q2). Meanwhile, FY2025 Q2 yielded another bumper crop of new investors with 1,918 I-526/I-526E filings, bringing the post-RIA total to over 10,000 investors. As those 10K investors become 20-30K visa applicants, they’ll overwhelm the 3K annual limit for set-aside visas. Approval rates remain high, which is good for individuals but bad for the backlog. The Visa Bulletin remains current, which is good for people filing I-485 but bad for the backlog. The median processing time for completed I-526E is low (just 11.7 months in Q2) — which is nice for the 3% of I-526E completed in Q2, but no indicator for the 97% of cases not completed. I am interested to note the 31 post-RIA Unreserved visas issued in FY2024 — contradictions/exceptions to what I’d assumed to be the rule: that Unreserved visas get issued in priority date order with the pre-RIA backlog going first.

Data Insights for Regional Centers

Regional centers have facilitated an influx of over 10,000*$800,000=$8 billion dollars from EB-5 investment since 2022. This is great for the U.S. economy and job creation — and also 8x more investment than underwritten by the visa incentive (considering about 3,000 annual set-aside visas able to accommodate about 1,200 annual investors, or about $960M investment).

Slow processing times and low visa issuance are a win for capital raises, because they delay the day of public reckoning with backlogs. The Visa Bulletin can continue to show its encouraging “C” for Rural, High, Unemployment and Infrastructure so long as only a trickle of investors are getting I-526E approvals and becoming visa applicants, while the majority of the backlog stays hidden in I-526E processing. (If I-526E filed through 2024 had all been approved by now, and if DOS were issuing visas, then today’s Visa Bulletin would have final action dates for every country in High Unemployment, and for China and India in Rural.)

Who has to care about the hidden backlog? Or about continuing to accept in three months more investors than could possibly get visas in a year (as happened in FY2025 Q2)? Is it right to offer “immigrant investment” while saying “I honestly have no idea when you’ll be able to immigrate based on this investment”? And even for people who care, what can be done? Could any data milestone make the market/industry collectively decide “this is has gone too far, let’s choose to pause?” Some of us have made this call individually, but there’s no mechanism for the market to regulate itself.

If only EB-5 could get more visas! The program has an outsize economic impact, contributing $184 billion to U.S. GDP from investment in 2016-2019 alone, according to the recent Fourth Economy Economic Impact Analysis. Fourth Economy calculated that EB-5 created an average of 45 American jobs from each EB-5 investor, and has potential to generate 3.1 million American jobs annually if only supported by sufficient visas.

FY2024 Annual Report Summary

FY2025 Q2 Processing Data

FY2025 I-485 Trend

FY2025 Consular Processing Trend

Progress of Rural and High Unemployment Visa Issuance since 2022

[UPDATE: The preliminary data in this post has now been replaced by final reports quoted above in Major Data Update (FY2024 Visa Report, FY2025 Q2 data, FY2025 I-485 and visa progress, visa interview timing)]

Multiple readers asked me this question about the updated EB-5 backlog analysis I published last week. Why use 2025 as “Year 0” for Rural and High Unemployment visa issuance? Haven’t Rural and High Unemployment EB-5 visas been set aside every year since 2022? Why assume that almost no investors with priority dates since 2022 have visas yet? Is it right to estimate the pipeline visa backlog as of January 2025 as equal to nearly everyone who’s ever filed I-526E, plus their family members?

Unfortunately, TEA visa issuance is indeed only starting to pick up steam as of FY2025. The thousands of Rural and High Unemployment visas available in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024 are now irrelevant to backlog calculations, because they were mostly not issued. (Indeed most TEA visas theoretically available in FY2025 are also on track to not be issued, but the carryover rule means that FY26 may provide another chance to issue FY25 TEA visas.) The following table summarizes my view of Rural and High Unemployment Visa issuance to date.

The numbers for FY2022 and FY2023 are actual, according to Annual Reports of the Visa Office. Figures for FY2024 and FY2025 to date are still estimates, since litigation has (reportedly) delayed publication of the 2024 Annual Report. We can estimate consular visa issuance since 2023 by summing up monthly data in the Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Statistics reports (currently available through March 2025). And it’s possible to roughly estimate adjustment of status visa issuance by comparing monthly reports for “Pending Applications for Employment-Based Preference Categories” (currently available to January 2025 on the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page.) When the final numbers are published, I expect them to be higher than my estimates from the partial/preliminary reports, particularly for AOS. But the bottom line is clear: we are looking at 100s and not 1000s of Rural and High Unemployment visas issued to date. Which means that we do have to assume most Rural and High Unemployment investors since 2022 are still queued up waiting for visas.

Reserved visa issuance to date has been so low due to processing delay at USCIS and Department of State. People can’t get reserved visas until they can get visa interviews or I-485 processing, which in turn can’t happen until investor I-526/I-526E are approved, which in turn can’t happen until I-956F project applications are approved. With I-956Fs finally getting processed in volume in 2024, we’re starting to see more I-526E approvals and more visa issuance as of 2025. I’m including charts for USCIS processing and consular processing to date, and a table illustrating how monthly I-485 inventory reports can support a rough estimate of AOS visa issuance. For the most comprehensive available view of approval status of Rural and High Unemployment petitions, see the I-526E adjudication data by I-526E filing date and TEA category just published by AIIA “AIIA FOIA Series: Post RIA Petition Approval Statistics for January 2025” (May 16, 2025). As time permits I’ll publish an in-depth post on the USCIS and DOS operational factors that affect EB-5 timing, and prospects for forthcoming processing times. (I regret having more bad news to share about USCIS staffing and resource cuts at the Investor Program Office. And I wish I knew what was preventing consulates from scheduling post-RIA visa interviews for all qualified applicants.)

I’ve updated the Excel files linked to my EB-5 Timing Page. I fixed the first link (which for one day last week linked to an old analysis file instead of to the correct data collection file). And I added Progress and Visa Supply tabs to the EB-5 Backlog Analysis file to help clarify visa supply questions.

EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025 — UPDATED

I have completely updated the EB-5 Backlog Analysis linked to my EB-5 Timing Page. The new version is more streamlined, adds scenarios, and reflects the latest available data, including 2025 AIIA FOIA data for actual I-526/I-526E receipts by country and TEA category through January 2025. This article replaces my previous post on EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025, which had assessed visa backlogs based on data published through mid 2024.  

My previous analysis foresaw 2025 Rural and High Unemployment investors from China and India potentially getting visas from 2029 to the early 2030s — considering the backlog visibility in mid 2024, and hopes for high visa issuance in 2025.

What has changed? We now know that the pipeline backlog for Reserved visas has been rapidly expanded by new investors, while advancing more slowly than expected through USCIS processing. This adds up to more severe wait time outlook for China and India, which now have more people queued up for fewer visas available. My updated analysis highlights backlogs within each popular EB-5 lane (Unreserved, Rural, High Unemployment), and considers how switching between lanes could optimize visa availability. I also updated the model with a tool to model potential visa number wait times for a variety of priority dates.

The big picture of EB-5 demand shows approximately 60,000 people in the pipeline for visas available at a base rate of 10,000 per year. (“In the pipeline” means people associated with investors who started the EB-5 process by filing I-526/I-526E, and now somewhere in the process between petition filing and receiving a conditional green card.) The EB-5 demand picture is further complicated by multiple TEA and country categories, which affect which applicant could qualify for which visa.

Table 1 summarizes the estimated EB-5 backlog as of January 2025. This includes legacy EB-5 applicants who started the process before RIA passed in March 15, 2022, and now still waiting for Unreserved visas. And the backlog includes nearly all EB-5 applicants with priority dates since March 2022, because Rural and High Unemployment visa issuance is just now finally getting started as of FY2025.

Let’s start with a few incorrect ways to interpret Table 1 above. It’s easy to get confused by these factors: how country caps do and do not limit visa allocation, options for TEA investors to change lanes and choose Unreserved visas, how wait time estimates apply to a variety of priority dates, and whether or not investors born outside China or India need to worry about visa availability.

(If you’d like a refresher on country caps and options for TEA investors to request Unreserved visas following I-526E approval, see Q5-Q14 from my Q&A published by CanAm last year.)

In revising my backlog analysis model, I tried to account for country caps, consider scope for visa allocation above country caps, account for the possibility of changing lanes between Reserved and Unreserved categories, model scenarios depending on whether applicants elect to change lanes, and then replicate all that for a variety of priority dates. Whew. Here’s a screenshot of summary projections for a January 31, 2025 priority date, showing the very different estimates that result depending on what assumptions one makes about future applicant behavior in choosing between Reserved and Unreserved visas.

Notes on the Scenarios:

• “Scenario 1” shows the maximum potential impact of country cap limits. The estimated wait time is the number that results from simply dividing pipeline demand by base annual visa availability in each category. Scenario 1 shows the wait time if all applicants stayed in their TEA lanes, and if China and India were actually limited to 7% of visas in each lane. This scenario could theoretically come true for High Unemployment unless and until many HU investors start selecting Unreserved visas, because HU has enough ROW applicants to limit China and India to 7% long-term. It could come true for Rural if future ROW Rural demand increases, plus all Rural investors ultimately request Rural visas. But this scenario won’t come true in real life, because HU and Rural applicants are free to make the Unreserved switch if desired. And obviously no one’s really waiting 68 years for a visa.
• “Scenario 2” models an unlikely but best-case scenario for China and India.  What if 100% of Rest of World TEA investors switch to request Unreserved visas, leaving the entire Rural and High Unemployment visa allocations to be shared by China and India? In that case, China and India could get Rural and HU visas in FIFO order, without cap limits. Even in this best case, there could be a 4-year Rural visa wait and 7-year High Unemployment visa wait for January 2025 investors, based on the number of China and India-born applicants in the pipeline at that point compared with annual supply. And this case is unlikely to be fully realized, because ROW investors will (at least initially, before HU retrogression starts) lack personal motivation to request Unreserved visa allocation.
• “Scenario 3” models the outlook for China and India Rural if ROW Rural investors do take Rural visas, but the number of ROW Rural investors never grows enough to take all of the Rural visas technically available to ROW. For Scenario 3, I noted that ROW Rural I-526E filings in CY2024 were only high enough to absorb about 70% of the annual base allocation available to ROW on a priority basis. So Scenario 3 shows the “what if” Rural applicants from China and India can count on their own 7% each of annual Rural visas plus 30% of the Rural visas available first to ROW. I consider Scenario 3 relatively realistic, especially for Chinese and Indian investors with early Rural priority dates – but not dependable, given that ROW demand has been trending up. There’s no Scenario 3 for High Unemployment, because ROW demand for High Unemployment already well exceeds maximum visas available to ROW.
• “Scenario 4” gives the estimated visa number wait for a January 2025 Rural or High Unemployment investor who takes the first available Unreserved visa. The Scenario 4 estimate starts from quite pessimistic assumptions (about the longest I think the pre-RIA backlog could take to clear, the fewest Reserved visas issued in the meantime, and the most people jumping at an Unreserved switch.) But even with this pessimism, Scenario 4 might be the best visa timing hope for China and India-born investors with 2025 and later priority dates.  At least, it’s a potential ceiling to keep in mind. For example as a January 2025 India-born investor looking at the above table, I’d be thinking “So my wait time for a visa number could theoretically be as long as 12 years or as short as 3.5 years in the Rural category, depending on behavior of other Rural investors – but in the worst case I should be able to fall back on the chance for an Unreserved visa in about 7 years.” (We may significantly revise Scenario 4 when the Department of State finally publishes the 2024 NVC Wait List and 2024 Annual Report. I’m told that these reports, which should’ve been published last month, are still pending due to litigation.)

Go ahead and download the EB-5 Backlog Analysis Excel file from the Timing Page to follow the data and formulas behind all these estimates, and to recalculate for different priority dates. You can also experiment with different family size assumptions. (Estimates for priority dates before January 2025 use a xlookup function with the table of historical monthly I-526E filing data. Estimates for dates since January incorporate a guess that future demand will replicate the CY2024 average — but you can change this assumption too if you like.) The model will have to be revised in the future when we get actual numbers after January. The model assumes steady monthly demand for prediction, but real-life demand fluctuation can end up making a huge difference in wait time for applicants with priority dates just weeks apart. If you notice any errors in my Excel, please email suzanne@lucidtext.com. I regularly edit the file as I find mistakes, get new data, or think of additional considerations.

I realize that the conclusions alone don’t look very helpful/actionable. (“My wait time could theoretically be between 4 and 38 years– what?”) And with so many moving parts and future assumptions involved, no one wait time estimate is firmly reliable. For example, the major question for all new China-born and India-born investors is how long it will take the legacy pre-RIA Unreserved backlog to clear. That time could prove years earlier than the pessimistic estimate in this model if on-going ROW Unreserved visa usage proves lower than I currently estimate based on recent trends, or if many legacy applicants recorded in old data reports have actually dropped out by now (or will). But even with the questionable conclusions, I hope that the step-by-step process and calculations that I laid out help to illuminate how wait-time-shaping factors work. And I hope that the bottom line is clear: EB-5 needs more visas.

Please join and donate to AIIA so that we can keep getting data to support ongoing analysis.

If you’d like a personalized consultation to discuss the analysis, you can schedule a Paid Timing Consultation here.

You’re invited to join me at a webinar that Carolyn Lee is hosting on May 30 at 2 ET: Latest EB-5 Numbers: What Do They Say About EB-5 Visa Backlog? This topic is so complicated that it’s easy to get lost in the weeds and lose a sense of urgency. I appreciate Carolyn’s efforts to keep EB-5 backlogs in focus as an urgent issue.

And a final caveat: my analysis has to assume FIFO order and average results. In my analysis, “wait for a January 31, 2025 priority date to get a visa” equals “time required for everyone pending in the same queue with PD before 1/31/2025 to get visas.” But real life is not quite FIFO, as illustrated in AIIA’s important new data release: AIIA FOIA Series: Post RIA Petition Approval Statistics for January 2025. The distribution of approvals in AIIA data shows that a few petitions are getting luckily picked out and processed earlier than others. The lucky few who reach the visa stage early/out of order have a chance to snag a visa before others with earlier priority dates, and before the date that would be calculated in my model.  

EB-5 processing volumes fall in USCIS FY2025 Q1 data report

And now, the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page has finally published performance data for the first quarter of FY2025 (October to December 2024). The data shows a strong start to implementing the new administration’s immigration agenda. Last time around, it took two years for USCIS staffing and policy changes to translate into sluggish EB-5 form processing. This time, IPO preemptively cut its processing productivity in half even before the inauguration. Maybe October to December was an aberration, with no political connection and no trend to worry about. But at least for the one quarter, every EB-5 form suffered. I had expected USCIS to start shifting more resources to I-526E, given the visa urgency and dwindling I-526 workload, but this did not happen through the end of last year. Meanwhile, as previewed in AIIA’s data by country and TEA category, I-526E filings continued to shoot up through the end of 2024.

The FY2025 Q1 report is notable for including, for the first time, median processing times for post-RIA I-526 and I-526E.

Be cautious in interpreting the Processing Time number, which is not necessarily predictive! Footnote 6 to the Processing Times column explains: “Processing times are defined as the number of months it took for an application, petition, or request to be processed from receipt to completion in a given time period. The number of months presented is the median which is the time it took to complete 50% of all the cases processed in the quarter.” I’m very happy for the 50% of recently-completed I-526E that experienced a processing time of less than 12 months. However, 50% of the 202 completions in FY25 Q1 is just 101 forms — barely 1% of the inventory. How long will it take to process the 6,922 I-526E that remained pending at the end of last quarter? If USCIS kept going at the FY25 Q1 processing pace, then it would take 6,922/202=34 quarters=8.6 years. In order to get through the pre-2025 I-526E inventory in 12 months from now, USCIS would have to increase quarterly I-526E processing volume to 6,922/4=1,730 completions. On the other hand, the reported median processing time of 19.2 months for I-829 may be reasonably predictive, so long as USCIS can keep processing the I-829 inventory (7,553 at last count) at a rate of at least 1,000 completions per quarter.

New I-526E Data to January 2025

And now, we finally know what’s been happening with EB-5 demand and I-526/I-526E adjudications since mid 2024. See AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for January 2025. Thank you to AIIA, Galati Law, and the Freedom of Information Act! USCIS has not published any EB-5 data since September 2024, so we welcome this trove of new information about I-526 and I-526E receipts, approvals, and denials by country and TEA category through January 2025.

I will shortly revise my backlog analysis to incorporate this new information. My previous analysis made optimistic wait time estimates based on optimistic assumptions: that future EB-5 demand would remain at the level documented as of mid 2024, and that USCIS and Department of State processing would allow issuing available visas. My revised analysis must now downgrade these estimates. We now know that in fact, EB-5 demand shot up through the beginning of 2025, while processing volumes remained quite low.

The AIIA FOIA showed that “only 351 HUA and 1,126 rural petitions have been approved as of January 2025.” That’s likely too low for a year with 2,200 HUA and 4,400 rural visas available, and considering that visa interviews take months to schedule. If there aren’t enough applicants to claim available FY2025 set-aside visas, that means that the visa bulletin gets to stay “current” for a longer time (good news for concurrent filing), but some set-aside numbers will be permanently lost, Rest of World applicants will get more time to accumulate and crowd out China/India applicants, and expected visa wait times will lengthen.

Meanwhile, the AIIA FOIA showed the count of filed investor petitions reaching 5,191 High Unemployment and 4,329 Rural by the end of January 2025. That’s conservatively 10-11x annual HU visa availability and 4-5x annual Rural visa availability (considering that these investors may get I-526E approval and be joined by spouses and/or children to claim visas). Those are fearsome queues to enter the back of, for a new investor today. If a 2025 High Unemployment investor gets a visa in less than 10 years or a Rural investor gets a visa in less than 5 years, it will be thanks to country caps (allowing minority country investors to move ahead of earlier priority dates from China and India) and the possibility of category-switching (with Unreserved being an alternate lane as congestion builds in the TEA lanes.) I’m now anxious to get updated information on the pre-RIA backlog for Unreserved visas, to better assess Unreserved visas as a potential fallback for new HU and Rural investors.

Regional Centers will want to grapple with the fact that the coming 10+ years of HU visas and 4+ years of Rural visas have already been sold, even as a significant Unreserved backlog remains. Unless and until visa relief is possible, what’s left to offer is a chance for Rest-of-World EB-5 investors to cut the queue in front of earlier but cap-limited China-born and India-born investors. Keeping the “immigrant” in “immigrant investment” will require hard work for visa relief.

EB-5 visa issuance in February 2025

Finally a bit of data to report: Department of State has added Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance statistics for consular processing in February 2025. I made a few charts to highlight EB-5 numbers.

February data shows set-aside visa issuance continuing to pick up steam but very gradually, with visa issuance still extremely low in context of set-aside visas available this year. If this trend continues, then I guess that Rural and High Unemployment visa supply may not be maximized this fiscal year, and thus Rural and High Unemployment may not get visa bulletin dates this year. I may revise this guess if and when USCIS ever starts reporting data again for I-526E approvals (indicating how many people are potentially qualified for visas) and I-485 approvals (indicating the number of visas being allocated through status adjustment). USCIS 2025 data reports are now very delayed, but I keep checking — hoping that the USCIS Office of Performance and Quality still exists! Also waiting on the delayed 2024 NVC waitlist report. If set-aside visa issuance remains low throughout FY2025, that would be good news for the concurrent filing window, and bad news for the pipeline backlog — especially for applicants from China and India who depend on getting through the visa gate as soon as possible before more rest of world applicants have a chance to get I-526E approvals. Actual visa wait times could be worse than calculated in my EB5 Backlog Analysis model in case of low set-aside visa issuance. (I’ll revise the entire model when the next USCIS and NVC reports finally come out.)

Looking at Unreserved visa issuance through consulates, I note that Department of State remains on track to issue all Unreserved visas available for the fiscal year. Good! But the rate of Unreserved visa issuance to rest-of-world countries did not increase in February — as I think it should have, given that ROW applicants are so numerous that DOS might even have to impose a ROW Unreserved a cutoff date this year (according to the April 2025 visa bulletin note). A number of consulates seem to be having problems with scheduling EB-5 interviews — for example in Nigeria, which has many EB-5 applicants but no EB-5 interviews at all this year. Can consulates be given a push to act on EB-5 cases? On the bright side, low EB-5 visa issuance to ROW meant that China-born applicants were able to continue to pick up “otherwise unused” Unreserved visas in February.

In other news, IIUSA has posted a letter from their lobbyist on advocacy efforts.

Set-aside visa issuance and demand

As someone alarmed by the EB-5 set-aside visa pipeline backlogs already accumulated as of 2024, I have had two hopes for 2025: high set-aside visa issuance and reasonably low new I-526E filings. I want to see as many as possible rural and high unemployment visas issued this year, taking a maximum bite from the backlogs, and I don’t want to see the timing outlook worsen considerably. But the reality seems to be otherwise. It appears that the Trump administration’s threats to EB-5 have not dampened but are actually spurring new EB-5 demand — contradicting my guesses from a couple weeks ago. And the latest published monthly visa issuance data (as of January 2025) shows set-aside visa issuance remaining extremely low, at least through consulates. The following chart illustrates the numbers informing my current impression that new EB-5 set-aside investors in coming months can likely still expect a “current” visa bulletin (due to distance between FY2025 visa availability and visa issuance so far) but may also face a dire wait for a visa number (due to distance between pipeline applicants and forthcoming visa availability overall). It’s so tough to make educated decisions when the visa situation is so dynamic, and lacking real-time data, but I keep trying to keep a sense of the big picture in view.

EB-5 Retrogression in April 2025 Visa Bulletin

The April 2025 Visa Bulletin has retrogressed the EB5 Unreserved Final Action Dates for China and India, and concludes with a note indicating that Rest of the World Unreserved may also get a final action date this year.

E.  RETROGRESSION OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED FINAL ACTION DATES FOR CHINA AND INDIA 

Increased demand and number use by China and India in the EB-5 unreserved visa categories, combined with increased Rest of World demand and number use, made it necessary to retrogress the final action dates to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2025 annual limits.  Please note that it may also become necessary to establish a final action date for Rest of World countries if demand and number use continues to increase. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.

I read this announcement as good news for Unreserved visa wait times overall, since it means that the process is working efficiently. When I expected the process to work inefficiently, I thought that USCIS would slow-walk rest-of-world petition processing and consulates would slow-walk visa issuance, with the result that the visa bulletin would not need to move to add an extra constraint. Now I see that the visa bulletin is having to jump for Unreserved, which tells me that DOS has apparently already efficiently issued most EB-5 Unreserved visas available this year to China and India, while USCIS and NVC are maximizing the number of Rest of World applicants able to claim visas. ROW could only reach a limit this year if DOS manages to issue more ROW EB-5 visas this year than it ever has in the past. The more ROW visas issued this year, the fewer ROW applicants left for next year, so maxing out ROW visas this year would be good for ROW. However, high ROW visa demand directly corresponds to limits on China, so Chinese EB-5 applicants may receive thousands fewer visas this year than I had hoped.

As a reminder, I have estimated at least 8,100 pre-RIA ROW applicants in the pipeline for EB-5 Unreserved visas. This is greater than the number of visas remaining to ROW in FY2025 (given the 11,470 Unreserved visas available in FY2025, of which China has already absorbed over 2,500 and India can claim 803 under country caps). The ROW queue for Unreserved visas may also be expanded by post-RIA ROW investors fleeing from High Unemployment and Rural backlogs. Though this flight may be reversed, if and when ROW Unreserved gets a final action date while set-aside categories remain “Current.” (For earlier predictions of future visa bulletin movement for China and India, calculated as a function of demand/supply balance, see the “Pre-RIA China” and “Pre-RIA India” tabs in the EB-5 Visa Supply and Demand Analysis workbook linked to the EB-5 Timing page. I may now need to revise the Pre-RIA China tab with a more pessimistic estimate based on assuming more ROW visas/fewer China visas in FY2025.)

The April 2025 Visa Bulletin does not include a corresponding note for the EB-5 Set Aside categories, which suggests that USCIS and DOS are not working as efficiently to advance and issue visas to the High Unemployment and Rural backlogs.

I look forward to what the next Chatting with Charlie webinar has to say about the April Visa Bulletin.

(In other news, the spending bill to fund the government past March 15 appears to be not, after all, a potential vehicle for a new “Gold Card” or EB-5 changes. The House Appropriations Committee released a draft of the The Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025 on Friday, emphasizing that it contains “no poison pills or unrelated riders – the bill is simple: extend funding and certainty for the nation.”)

EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025

5/21/2025 UPDATE: Please see the new version of this post based on more recent data: EB-5 Visa Backlog and Outlook as of 2025 — UPDATED

–ORIGINAL POST–

The EB-5 “investor visa” program obviously depends on visas. It’s tough to get a handle on the EB-5 visa outlook, considering spotty data, moving parts, and disincentives to recognize a threat. I keep working on analysis, because it’s so practically important for EB-5 issuers and investors to assess the visa incentive. I keep hesitating to publish, because conclusions are controversial and tough to fully qualify. But EB-5 is in a visa crisis that keeps getting more severe, and too dangerous not to address as best we can.

I’ve now updated the EB-5 Timing Page by publishing the current fruit of my on-going labor – a detailed Excel model that carefully patches together available facts, adds assumptions step by step, and builds a responsive model for assessing current backlogs and visa wait times. This article gives the tip of the analysis iceberg. For full detail you can download the EB-5 Visa Supply and Demand Analysis Excel model and make your way through it, following the sources and formulas and adjusting assumptions as needed to reach your own conclusions.  As time permits, I may put up additional articles to discuss portions of the analysis in detail. And my paid timing consultations are now available again for those who’d like to discuss one-on-one.

EB-5 already has more pipeline visa applicants than annual visas in the Unreserved, High Unemployment, and Rural categories. This means retrogression coming in each category. I dare say that every analysis of available data leads to that general conclusion. The debatable question is who will be affected, when, and to what extent.

Table 1 gives an estimate of the total pipeline backlog going into 2025, while Table 2 gives the timing predictions that result from one detailed comparison of the existing backlog with forthcoming visa supply. As a base case, I populated the model with assumptions that I consider conservative, and erring on the side of optimism regarding processing speed and retention rates.

Key assumptions behind Table 1 estimates: an average 2-to-1 ratio of visas to I-526/I-526E filings for post-RIA investors (assuming average 2.5 family size and 80% approval rate), accurate NVC records for pre-RIA investors, and minimal visa-stage attrition. “Pipeline backlog” means qualified visa-stage applicants plus future visa applicants coming up from I-526/I-526E processing. Key data behind Table 1 estimate: NVC wait list as of May 2024, pending I-485 as of October 2024, pre-RIA I-526 pending as of July 2024, recent I-526 denial rates and family sizes, post-RIA I-526 and I-526E filed through September 2024, post-RIA filings by country and category through July 2024.

Key assumptions behind Table 2 base estimates: That all available FY2025 visas will be issued, with no limits imposed yet on China or India Rural or High Unemployment in FY2025. (In the likely event that this optimistic assumption is not realized, worse visa wait times would result for China and India.) That the backlog entering FY2025 is as described in Table 1 (and as detailed by priority date in the supporting Excel). That new EB-5 demand in 2025 and future years will mirror the volume and TEA/category distribution of EB-5 demand in FY2024. (To the extent that this proves not true, actual wait times for China Unreserved, China Rural, and India Rural could be less than estimated in Table 2.) That qualified Rest-of-World High Unemployment and Rural applicants are likely to take High Unemployment and Rural visas at least in 2025 (considering that they are first-in-line for Rural and HU visas while thousands of earlier pre-RIA ROW applicants still stand in the way of access to an Unreserved visa), but that Rural and High Unemployment investors from all countries are likely to request/be assigned Unreserved visas as soon as the pre-RIA Unreserved visa backlog clears for their country. That visas are generally assigned in priority date order. (As discussed in the previous post, exceptions to this general rule mean that individual experience can turn out to be faster or more delayed than the average, even assuming that the times in Table 2 are on-target as averages.)

Tables 1 and 3 highlight the basic EB-5 visa predicament: that we’re in a deep and rapidly deepening visa hole. EB-5 entered 2025 with about five times more pipeline visa applicants than base annual visas. 2024 alone brought in 2.3x as many Rural investors and nearly 5x as many High Unemployment investors as can reasonably get visas in a year with their families in a normal year under category limits.

Table 2 summarizes attempts to quantify when investors could dig out of that hole and secure visas. (See individual tabs in the Excel model for sources and derivations for the estimates in this table. And you can use the worksheets to try the effect of different assumptions.) 

Table 2 is a reminder that if something doesn’t give, the only new EB-5 investors in 2025 who can expect to get a green card this decade may be Unreserved and Rural investors from “Rest of World” countries, and possibly Rural investors from India. The supply/demand imbalance in High Unemployment is already large enough to create retrogression for applicants from every country in 2026 (or earlier if USCIS increases processing volume), and to measure theoretical wait times for China and India in lifetimes (though less in practice assuming Unreserved visas can be allocated to post-RIA investors as soon as the pre-RIA Unreserved backlog clears).

Could actual wait times be even worse than the Table 2 estimate? Theoretically yes, if low-volume I-526/I-526E processing continues to hinder visa issuance, if on-going Rest-of-World visa demand increased from 2024 levels, and if family sizes and/or approval rates beat historical averages.

Actual visa wait times could also turn out less than estimated in Table 2, so long as visa demand proves less or supply proves greater than modeled in the Excel workbook. Maybe thousands of the pre-RIA China and India applicants registered at the National Visa Center have withdrawn or will give up or get denied, thus hastening the day when post-RIA applicants can start to access Unreserved as well as set-aside visas. (Visa Bulletin dates may signal this possibility for India – I’ll be interested to see the forthcoming updated NVC waitlist.) Maybe recent applicants will prove to have a high rate of project and/or evolutionary failure, resulting in a visas-to-I-526E ratio of much less than 2.0 for Rural and High Unemployment. Maybe the EB-5 market will shortly collapse over uncertainty around visas, sustainment, and reauthorization, thus stemming the incoming tide of Rest-of-World demand that would otherwise limit future visa supply to China and India. Or maybe politicians will realize that they love the visa category that has given the U.S. innumerable jobs, measurable economic growth, and immigrants such as Elon Musk, and decide to allocate more visa numbers to EB-5.

As illustrated in Tables 1 and 3, stabilizing the EB-5 visa situation could require a one-time infusion of around 40,000 visas to clear the existing backlog, or alternatively about 2.3x more rural visas and 4.9x more high unemployment visas on an annual basis to support ongoing demand potential. There were just under 5,000 EB-5 investments made in 2024, which could be nearly sustainable for a program with 10,000 annual visas — if not for the EB-5 backlog blocking paths for new investors and blocking access to 68% of those visas.  Alternatively, wait times could stabilize at a tolerable level (for those few who can persist) if the EB-5 market contracts by at least half, and/or about half of past Unreserved and High Unemployment investors give up.

Something is certain to give, when theoretical wait times become intolerably long. Consider this exercise: “100 people arrive for breakfast at a restaurant that can serve 20 customers per hour. How long will customer #101 wait for breakfast?” The real-life answer is not “100/20=5 hours” but rather “however long she/others are willing to wait for breakfast before giving up and going to eat somewhere else.” Ideally the restaurant owner is smart enough to rustle up more staff and tables in time to accommodate the profitable crowd, and to avoid discouraging new customers.

In cell D42 of the HU tab of the model, you’ll find a formula 5,252/70=75. The China high unemployment pipeline backlog is on track to be 75x greater this year than annual HU visa supply under country caps. But of course, no Chinese HU investor will wait anywhere near 75 years for a visa. The gap between demand and supply will inevitably close somehow, to reduce wait times to tolerable levels. I sincerely hope that supply-side relief is what ultimately closes the gap, making many more visas available across categories such that HU investors from all countries can get timely access to a HU or Unreserved visa. But for now, please “mind the gap” or risk unexpected failure.

As time permits, I may write additional posts to discuss the methods and thinking baked into the Excel model behind this post, and to walk through using and modifying the model. As time permits, I may redo the model when Department of State publishes the November 2024 NVC Waitlist and the 2024 Report of the Visa Office, and as new processing reports from USCIS and DOS help clarify possible visa issuance this year. If you benefit from the considerable effort that I’ve put into this otherwise thankless analysis, please consider making a contribution to support the work. If you’d like to pay for a consultation to discuss the model and your EB-5/timing questions individually, please book a meeting here.

I would like to thank Lee Li of IIUSA, Connor Chen of EB5 Sir, and Joey Barnett and Charlie Oppenheim of WR Immigration for responding to my requests for advance review of this analysis. And I welcome any additional corrections and feedback to the EB-5 Visa Supply and Demand Analysis model. You can email me at suzanne@lucidtext.com.

Insights from consular visas issued in FY2025 Q1

Department of State has also been updating its data, with monthly immigrant visa issuance reports now published for the first quarter of FY2025 (October, November, and December 2024). While my previous post focused on adjustment of status visas so far this year, the DOS numbers show what’s been happening with consular processing. As illustrated in the summary table below, DOS did great work with Unreserved visa issuance in the first quarter, managing to issue 40% of Unreserved visas available for the year. Chinese applicants particularly benefited from this efficiency. I’m also delighted to announce, for the first time, visas issued in almost every new post-RIA category (only missing infrastructure). However, the set-aside numbers are low. Rural and high unemployment visa issuance at consulates in the first quarter barely reached 1% of visas available this year. With AOS numbers apparently low so far as well, this makes me question whether/when FY2025 limits in those categories could possibly be reached. If this low volume continued, it would mean deferring set-aside retrogression in the visa bulletin (giving more “C” months for filing AOS), wasting some FY2025 set-aside visas, and pushing more of the existing backlog into future years. I trust that we’ll see much higher issuance numbers in coming monthly reports, to get as many set-aside applicants as possible into FY25’s unusually high visa limits.

Insights from pending EB-5 I-485 reports in FY2025 Q1

Last year, USCIS started publishing a valuable monthly report titled “Pending Applications for Employment-Based Preference Categories.” As explained on the AOS FAQ page, “The report provides our estimate of how many Forms I-485 we have in our inventory for each employment-based preference category, by selected country of chargeability, and by the month and year of the estimated priority date.”

I look to the pending I-485 reports for detail on the EB-5 inventory by TEA category, and for evidence of EB-5 processing movement. This post compares the EB-5 I-485 inventory report as of October 3, 2024 (the start of FY2025) with December 3, 2024 (the most recent report). I’m struck by the large number of applicants for reserved visas, by hints of I-526E processing progress by priority date, and by evidence that adjustment of status visas are not necessarily being issued in order by priority date.

Table 1 summarizes the USCIS report of EB-5 I-485 pending as of December 3, 2024. Note that the numbers represent every EB-5 applicant with a pending I-485, including applicants who can’t claim visas yet because the underlying I-526/I-526E has not yet been approved. The USCIS report has “D” in some cells to represent a redacted number less than 11; the figures in Table 1 assume that D=5 on average.

Table 1. EB-5 I-485 Pending as of December 3, 2024 (assumes “D”=5 on average)

In Table 1, I note that Infrastructure investors exist (despite not being recorded on FOIA reports of I-526E filings), and the numbers of high unemployment and rural applicants. If the pending high unemployment I-485 applicants could all get I-526E approval and qualify for visas this year (with 2,200 HU visas available), then we’d have high unemployment retrogression in the visa bulletin for all countries, including Rest of World countries – and that’s not even counting all the HU applicants coming up separately through consular processing.

The USCIS pending I-485 report uses one label for all Unreserved EB-5, but in Table 1 I divided the Unreserved applicants based on priority date into pre-RIA (through March 2022) and post-RIA (after March 2022). This highlights the fact that — so far — not many post-RIA applicants are requesting Unreserved visas.  This may change when ROW applicants who qualify for High Unemployment visas find themselves retrogressed in the crowded HU queue for only 10% of EB-5 visas, and opt to queue up instead behind the pre-RIA Unreserved ROW applicants going for 68% of EB-5 visas.

And now, on to more detailed tables that compare the December 3, 2024 report with the October 3, 2024 report. Looking at inventory changes, I can make some inferences about what happened with EB-5 processing in the first two months of FY2025.

Looking at changes to the Rural I-485 inventory between October and December, I can tell that USCIS has at least been adjudicating Rural I-526E with priority dates up to December 2023. (I-526E approval precedes I-485 approval.) I also note that the inventory isn’t being cleared FIFO in priority date order. Over a wide span of priority date months, we see a few I-485 being cleared while others in the same month get left untouched.  I will guess that this lack of FIFO discipline originates with I-526E processing, where order depends on I-956F timing and not just filing date. Mandamus actions may also play a role. I recently heard reports from investors with November 2023 and March 2024 priority dates who got I-485 approval in January 2025 – six months after I-526E approval, and two months after having Mandamus actions filed for their I-485.

Looking at changes to the High Unemployment I-485 inventory between October and December, I can’t tell that USCIS has moved much beyond 2022 priority dates with I-526E processing. Most HU I-485 visas issued so far this fiscal year were to 2022 PD, with just a handful 2023 and later PD getting visas so far. The delta column in each table doesn’t capture all processing activity, since it’s just the difference between additions and subtractions to the inventory by priority date month. But overall, I get the impression that I-485 approval numbers have been quite low so far this year for high unemployment, and not FIFO.

Changes to the Unreserved I-485 pending inventory likewise do not suggest a FIFO situation. What made those 15 Chinese I-485 applicants with April 2016 priority dates so lucky to be cleared, even as 50 others with priority dates in the same month and at least 337 other Chinese from previous months were left untouched? It’s possible that the change reflects withdrawal rather than approval, but still I wonder.

The pattern illustrates why we need to qualify EB-5 timing prediction for individual cases. A model can estimate how long it will take to issue visas to everyone with April 2016 priority dates, as a function of visas available and the total number of people waiting up to that date. But the model doesn’t know if Investor X will have the luck to be picked out earlier than others, or somehow left behind. At the same time, the pattern shows why we can’t conclude that backlogs have been cleared just because some recent priority dates are getting visas. Apparently two Indian applicants with December 2021 priority dates left the I-485 inventory recently – but that doesn’t erase over 500 Indian applicants with earlier priority dates whose I-485 are still pending.

I’m about to publish my best effort at a comprehensive analysis of the current EB-5 backlog and timing outlook, but wanted to first publish this article to highlight the key issue of order in visa processing.