Understanding USCIS Processing Time Reports–Updated

Every month, the USCIS Processing Time Information page updates a chart titled “Average Processing Times for Immigrant Investor Program Office” that looks like this.
chart
What does this chart mean?

1. The report provides a metric for inquiries
The single unambiguous function of this report is to indicate when petitioners may begin to complain. A stakeholder email from USCIS in January 2017 explained,

We post case processing times on our website as a guide for when to inquire (service request) about a pending case. For the last several years, we have posted case processing times using two different formats: For cases that were within our production goals, we listed processing times in weeks or months; For cases that were outside of our production goals, we listed processing times with a specific date.
Always refer to your I-797C, Notice of Action, and look for “receipt date” to determine when we accepted your case. If the receipt date on the USCIS Processing Times web page is after the date we have listed on your notice, you should expect to hear from us within 30 days. If after those 30 days, you have not heard from us, you may make an inquiry on your case. We recommend using our e-request tool for all case inquiries.

With this in mind, the table can be read to mean “As of November 30, 2016, we were processing at least some I-526 cases filed as of August 7, 2015. If your I-526 petition was filed before 8/7/2015 and you haven’t heard from us, you may start making inquiries.”

2. The report is not a reliable guide for the processing time for any given petition
You might think “As of November 30, 2016 we are processing I-526 cases as of August 7, 2015” means that “the I-526 processing time is 16 months, and an I-526 filed now can expect a decision 16 months later.”  This is not a safe assumption because 2017 filings will face different adjudication factors than 2015 filings.  Huge surges in petition filings will put a negative strain on processing times, even as IPO works on staffing improvements that should have a positive influence. It’s hard to project into the future and guess how the moving pieces will even out.

Or you might think that the processing time report means “as of November 30, 2016 IPO has finished processing I-526 cases from before 8/7/2015, its current workload is mostly composed of August 2015 cases, and my turn is coming soon if my petition was filed on or after 8/7/2015.” This interpretation is not safe because it assumes (1) that the posted processing time is not only average but also typical, and (2) that IPO follows a first-in-first out policy in adjudications. We have reason for doubt on both these points. I don’t know how IPO calculates the processing dates that it posts (and IPO Deputy Chief Julia Harrison has said a couple times that she doesn’t either and can’t explain it), but we can assume some deviation. (For example, compare my charts of reported processing times and actual processing times for I-924 applications in 2015.) And IPO has indicated that it does not necessarily process EB-5 petitions in date order. With respect to I-526 “Generally speaking we do our adjudications not in a strict first-in-first-out order but in a range of first-in-first-out based on when we received the first application related to a specific project,” and likewise “USCIS adjudicates Form I–829 petitions in ‘first in, first out’ order by new commercial enterprises”. (See my on-going log of USCIS communications regarding processing times.) If IPO processes petitions in batches by project, then many petitions may be out of date order. And exemplar filings can influence processing times, for good or ill. IPO has said that exemplar petitions facilitate processing for subsequent I-526 petitions.  However EB-5 Insights reported on 3/15/2017 that IPO seems to have an unofficial policy to hold in abeyance pending I-526 Petitions when an Exemplar I-924 Petition associated with the same new commercial enterprise has been filed.

3. The report reflects processing trends
We can scrutinize the processing times report to try to follow processing trends, get a sense of whether IPO is speeding up or slowing down, and try (though this is perilous, as noted above) to project the future. FYI here are charts based on my log of dates/months reported in monthly updates to the IPO processing times table since 2014. (And you may access my spreadsheet here.)

Further Discussion
In the past, EB-5 investor readers have used the comments section of this blog to trade experience with processing dates, and I got a request to open up a discussion forum instead to facilitate this exchange. So I have set up http://eb5.freeforums.net/ as a platform for investors to share experience with and questions about EB-5 petition processing.

About Suzanne (www.lucidtext.com)
Lucid Professional Writing provides writing and editing services for businesses and scholars, and specializes in assisting clients to prepare business plans for filing with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

5 Responses to Understanding USCIS Processing Time Reports–Updated

  1. kobus says:

    I notice USCIS are now processing cases as of “July 28 2016” (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processingTimesDisplay.do) – up from Aug 7 2015 in just one quarter… I’m assuming thats a big mistake or they’ve been really busy over December.

  2. Lk Inz says:

    Kobus: it was not “over one quarter”, but actually over one *month*: as you mentioned, the change happened over December (the previous data, indicating the 2015 dates, was indicated as being from November 30th, 2016).

    Suzanne: as of right now, that suspicious, almost certainly wrong, dates are still showing there. I wonder if anyone has pointed that to USCIS and asked for clarification.

    • John Maxkrewl says:

      They are updated now but USCIS still messed up the I-526 dates. It should have been August 29, 2015 but they updated it as August 29, 2016.

      Although people might realize it is a mistake, petitions between September 2015 and July2016 should just follow up with USCIS asking for an update on their case as it is past the processing timeline 😉 LOL

      • LK Inz says:

        John: as of Feb 29th, they just updated the page again to reflect a more believable date, which as you pointed is August 29, 2015. Took them 3 times to come up with that! This situation got me wondering how reliable any data they publish actually is… I guess not very much.

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