Per-country limits in question?
July 28, 2018 126 Comments
1/2019 UPDATE: IIUSA has done a more granular analysis of the EB-5 impact of the Yoder amendment
7/2019 UPDATE: My post Country Cap discussion analyzes H.R. 1044 ‘Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2019, which renews the proposal to remove the country cap for EB visas, but with a transition period and protection for past investors with approved petitions.]
— ORIGINAL POST —
I do not normally quote the Center for Immigration Studies, but for once I agree with David North. This is a concerning development:
An alarming bit of news – generally ignored by the press – is that the country of origin ceilings that try to diversify our immigration streams may be scrapped by congressional action.
The House Appropriations Committee, while marking up the Department of Homeland Security spending bill this week, inserted language that would eliminate the long-standing requirement that no more than 7 percent of any group of employment-based immigrants could come from a single nation. The same provision would ease the 7 percent rule on family migration as well, but not eliminate it. (See the amendment here, on pp. 23-28; it was introduced last year as a stand-alone bill, H.R. 392.)
This came about because the chair of the DHS Appropriations Subcommittee, Rep. Kevin Yoder, R-Kan.), managed to persuade his colleagues on the full committee that the current system is unfair to the Indian nationals whose visa applications, notably in the EB-2 category, are backlogged for several years. The provision would also speed up the delivery of EB-5 (immigrant investors) to Chinese applicants, while slowing down their arrival for people elsewhere in the world.
This House amendment language may not get into a final bill (it’s not in the Senate version), but it’s still important for the community to be educated about what the per-country limit means for EB-5. Based on data for EB-5 usage to date, here is what I calculate would happen to EB-5 visa availability if the per-country cap were removed as part of the FY2019 funding bill in September:
- The October 2018 Visa Bulletin would have a 2014 cut-off date for the EB-5 category for all countries.
- From 2019 to 2027, Department of State would be issuing EB-5 visas to people already in the backlog as of 2018, with no visas left for contemporary demand. Here are my estimates for when visas would be available to investors from various dates, based on data about I-526 filings from 2014 to 2018 and assumptions about denials/dropouts, family size, and visas already issued. Investors from all countries would be in the same line in order by priority date, without regard to nationality.
- 2014 priority date: visa issued in 2019 (5-year wait)
- 2015 priority date: visa issued in 2020/2021 (6-year wait)
- 2016 priority date: visa issued in 2022/2023 (7-year wait)
- 2017 priority date: visa issued in 2024/2025 (8-year wait)
- 2018 priority date: visa issued in 2026/2027 (9-year wait)
- 2019 priority date: visa issued in 2027/2028
- China-born applicants would dominate the front of the line for EB-5 visas, having the oldest priority dates. They would get 99% of EB-5 visas in 2019, and gradually reduce to about 80% of visas by 2027.
Pros and Cons
- Removing the per-country limit for EB-5 would give past China-born investors a predictable visa wait of 5 to 10 years, mostly just competing with each other for visas. That would be better than the current hard-to-predict wait of 5 years to life that depends on the wild card of future incoming non-China demand. Removing the per-country limit would give the China-born investor filing today an estimated 9+ year wait rather than the currently-estimated 15+ year wait. This is a benefit for China, but not a solution even for China. 9 years is preferable to 15 years, but this difference becomes irrelevant if both times are unacceptably long.
- Removing the per-country limit for EB-5 would be a pure disaster for non-China investors. All non-Chinese with pending I-526 or pending visa applications would find themselves in line behind the tens of thousands of Chinese with older priority dates, with many-year visa waits for everyone. Today’s China-born investor suffers, but at least it’s from policy that was in place when he invested, and an excess China demand situation knowable at that time. The non-China investor already in the system would suffer retroactively from new policy that didn’t exist when he invested.
- Lacking the per-country limit to protect new investment from a variety of countries, the EB-5 program would be essentially dead as regards new investment for the next ten years. Interest might revive by 2030, when the backlog that piled up in 2011-2018 is out of the system, leaving visas available for new applicants. (Or earlier, if many people in the system are shocked at finding their visa timeline unexpectedly expanded by 5-10 years, and try to exit.)
There’s still room for lobbying on this issue, so judge where your interest lies and speak with your contacts.
Additional Reading:
- The amendment text is linked from this page on the House Appropriations Committee website.
- The Yoder Amendment mirrors H.R.392 – Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2017, which has received a lot of sponsors and lobbying support.
- An August 10 Advocacy Alert from IIUSA says: “According to sources on both the House Appropriations Committee and the House Homeland Security Committee, the chances of the Homeland Security funding bill, which includes the Yoder amendment, of passing before the new fiscal year is very low. IIUSA will continue to explain the implications of these provisions to legislators in the House and Senate until both chambers are likely to vote on the bill after the midterm elections and before the 116th Congress commences in January.”
- Media articles on the background of and reaction to the amendment: Republicans Vote to Gut Enforcement, Increase Foreign Workers (July 27, 2018) National Review, After right slams Yoder on immigration, he pledges to work with Trump to ‘fix this’ (July 30, 2018) Idaho Statesman
- The Appropriations Committee press release mistakenly reports that “The amendment provides additional flexibility related to the country cap on high-skilled workers under the H1-B visa program.” In fact, the text makes adjustments to EB and FB immigrant visas, and says nothing about H1-B.
- This Congressional Research Service report explains and analyzes “Numerical Limits on Permanent Employment-Based Immigration: Analysis of the Per-country Ceilings”



