FY2018 Q1 EB-5 Form Processing Statistics
May 1, 2018 19 Comments
USCIS has updated its Immigration and Citizenship Data page with statistics on EB-5 forms received, processed and pending in the first quarter of FY2018 (October to December 2017). Form I-526 and I-829 are in the Employment Based subsection, and (I belatedly realize) Form I-924 is in the Forms subsection in the “All Forms Report.” (The row title is labeled “I-924/924A” for some quarters’ reports and just “I-924” in others, but it’s evident from the numbers that the data is for I-924 only, not including I-924A. I assume the row comprises initial applications and amendments.) This processing volume information provides the best picture we have of the progress and prospects for IPO processing.
My charts below summarize FY2018 Q1 data compared with previous quarters, and highlight trends. A few notes:
- IPO processed fewer forms overall in FY2018 Q1 than in the previous quarter. The volume of I-526 and I-924 processed stayed about the same on average over the past few quarters, while I-829 volume leapt and then tumbled. I had hoped for a more positive growth trend, and was disappointed.
- However, annual numbers trend in a positive direction, with IPO improving processing volume every year, and annual adjudications growing at a slightly faster rate than annual receipts.
- I-526 and I-924 receipt numbers continue to correlate with regional center program sunset dates, but with smaller and smaller surges.
- I-829 receipts increased last quarter as expected following the mysterious dips in previous quarters.
- I-924 adjudication has been remarkable for number of denials.
- IPO ended December 2017 with about twice as many pending I-526 and I-829 as it’s proven able to process in a year, and nearly three times as many I-924. So if we estimate processing times by dividing inventory by flow rate, that yields a 2-year processing time estimate for I-526 and I-829, and three-year estimate for I-924. That volume-based estimate matches exactly with the base month that USCIS posts on its new Processing Time Information page for I-526 and I-829, which makes me think they’re using the same equation. USCIS’s processing time estimate for I-924 is much lower, however. Maybe they plan to dramatically increase volume of I-924 adjudication, or disappear some of the pending backlog?
- FY2018 Q1 showed fewer I-526 adjudications and more I-526 receipts than I’d expected, so I recalculated my I-526 time prediction model accordingly.
Now that I’ve chosen to spend so much time sweating over Excel and Photoshop and injuring my eyes to make this post better than it needs to be, and as helpful as possible to you, I shall recopy my Paypal plug below. (Thank you to the 26 readers who contributed to the blog since I opened the option last month.)
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In our endeavor to gather EB5 investor under one plaform, there is a telegram group, that has grown to 100 members in 45 days. Seeking your support in publicising the group. Thanks !
I’ve been planning to link the group in my next investor-focused post (regardless of contributions), and trying to find if there’s any other EB-5-focused social media. There do seem to be few fora available, so I’m glad you started one. In the meantime, you might want to give the link whenever you mention the Telegram group in comments, for everyone’s reference.
https://t.me/joinchat/CpMYEFALbN2xkSR5VoVhgQ
This is the link to telegram investor group.
Thanks Suzanne, for your effort in sharing lot of insights and valuable info on Eb5. I made a donation. Please continue the good work. Lot of folks are benefitting from it.
Thank you!
Suzanne
Great job! Small comment – I think your processing time spreadsheet requires dates to be filled in international style d/m/y not US style m/d/y.
I double-checked the cell format in the I526time Excel file, and looks like everything is set to m/d/y, but alert me to any inconsistencies. Mainly I strive for consistency, since so long as everything’s clear users can reset to preferred international styles, whether d/m/y or y/m/d. Thank you for your feedback.
Hi Suzanne,
Is data available for I-526 filings from India in 2017?
It will have to be obtained by FOIA request, and no one has reported getting it
@suzanne: have you had success with getting cumulative information about i-526 filing by country and year ? i can make a request if that is possible
I’m sure that IIUSA already has a request pending. The FOIA process has been excruciatingly slow recently, and adding more requests to the system will probably only slow the result
Just want to inform, so you can add to your stats, that my I-526 has just been approved. I filed for it in December 2016. It took only 17 months for its approval!
Thank you for sharing this good news! Very happy for you! If you have a moment, add a few details to my processing times spreadsheet using this form https://goo.gl/forms/JTmN0JvCdtD0l5An2