Sluggish volumes and rising denial rates continue in FY2026 Q3 processing data

The USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page now includes EB-5 form receipt and processing data for FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026), and I-485 inventory data through August 5, 2026. I particularly consult the All Forms report, the report of I-526/I-526E receipts by country and TEA category (thank you USCIS!), the Net Backlog report, and I-485 reports.

The latest data shows respect for the immigration system and immigrants as reflected in robust processing productivity and approval rates — in my dreams. In fact, the data tells a story of ongoing dysfunction.

Denials: In FY2026 Q3, IPO denied almost 1 in 4 I-526E processed, and the California Service Center denied more than 1 in 4 I-485 processed. Denials accounted for 69% of standalone I-526 processed and 82% of pre-RIA I-526 processed in Q3. Setting the stage for ongoing carnage, IPO denied 22 project I-956F applications in Q3. I-829 still looks fairly healthy, with denial rate remaining under 10%. (I have several posts in process related to EB-5 denial factors, discussing lessons learned from reading over 300 I-526, I-526E, and I-956F appeal decisions recently published.)

Volumes: USCIS approved fewer I-526E and I-526 in Q3 than Q2 while not significantly improving I-829 volumes. Rural and High Unemployment I-485 processing volume appears to have taken an abrupt dip in June/July, after having been quite strong earlier in the year. EB-5 demand as reflected in I-526/I-526E receipts remained steady in Q3, with India Rural once again coming out on top.

Impact: I updated the EB5 Backlog Analysis spreadsheet linked to my EB5 Timing page with the Q3 data. The data update doesn’t really change my outlook, since I’ve been betting on negative sluggishness in the near term while noting that things could change any time. USCIS has capacity to be processing many more petitions, DOS ought to be scheduling many more interviews than attested so far, and the market may be casting up a demand surge since June. We shall see!

I’ve thoughtfully prepared charts and tables to place FY2026 Q3 data in context, and highlight points of interest. (If this is helpful for you, consider supporting the blog.)

Excerpt of EB-5 Form Data in the the FY2026 Q3 All Forms report

FY2026 Q3 Data in Context for I-526, I-526E, I-956F, and I-829 (All Forms Report)

Data related to I-485 (derived from the Pending EB Applications reports and I-485 reports)

Data Related to EB-5 Set-Aside Demand (I-526/I-526E reports) and the Adjustment of Status Set-Aside Backlog (Pending EB Applications report)

P.S. The Q3 Net Backlog report indicates that 100 people have untouched I-140G pending for the Gold Card. No approvals or denials separately reported yet for I-140G on the USCIS data page. I’d be very interested to see an investigation into the accounts receiving the fees and unrestricted cash gifts for this pyrite program.