How the EB-5 backlog is (not) advancing (AIIA FOIA of I-526E processing by country and TEA, FY2026 consular processing and AOS)

I-526/I-526E processing by TEA and Country through May 2026

Taking a break from hitting “refresh” on the Visa Bulletin page, I joined a webinar on Sunday hosted by AIIA to discuss important new data showing how EB-5 petitions are being processed at USCIS. USCIS quarterly reports only give a total number of I-526/I-526E approvals and denials. AIIA filed a Freedom of Information Act request for a breakdown of approvals and denials by TEA and country. After a love tap from Galati Law, USCIS responded to AIIA’s FOIA request with data that shows the rate and order in which Rural, High Unemployment, and other post-RIA investors have been moving through I-526/I-526E processing.

See AIIA’s post AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for May 2026 for detail of the FOIA data for I-526 and I-526E receipts, approvals, and denials up through May 31, 2026. The receipt data matches quarterly reports published on the USCIS website (except with more countries itemized), while the approval and denial details are unique to this FOIA dataset. The AIIA post shares detailed tables and charts, including an interesting table that breaks down I-526/I-526E inventory status by month. Investors with pending petitions can consult that table, find their priority date month, and see who’s been processed already and who else is still waiting for that date. I made a few summary tables by year to highlight overall trends in the data.

Points that I notice in I-526/I-526E processing data through May 2026

• Rural processing priority continues to be obvious. Rural accounts for 72% of all I-526/I-526E decisions through May 2026. Rural currently appears about two years ahead of High Unemployment overall in terms of I-526E filing dates being processed at USCIS.
• However, High Unemployment I-526/I-526E processing has picked up somewhat in recent months — as I guessed it might following the inventory management announcement in February 2026. HUA petitions accounted for just 16% of petitions processed through June 2025 (see AIIA’s previous FOIA), but 23% of petitions processed through May 2026. I am glad to see HUA less abandoned than before, though the numbers are still too low.
• USCIS approved a total 4,763 Rural investor petitions and 1,354 High Unemployment investor petitions by May 2026. Adding on spouses and children, that could be over 10,000 Rural visa applicants and nearly 3,000 or more HUA visa applicants. So far as I can guess from partial data reports on visa issuance, at most about 5,000 Rural visas and 2,500 HUA visas have been issued, ever. Conclusion: today’s population of qualified visa applicants (people who have I-526/I-526E approval but no visa yet) could be quite large for Rural and possibly still small for HUA. That translates into more near-term chance to actually use/run out of Rural visas, meaning relatively high near-term risk of a visa bulletin date for Rural. If the government is willing to issue visas to qualified applicants, which is not a given (see below). Meanwhile, the High Unemployment queue that’s mostly stuck in I-526E processing has less near-term chance of triggering the visa bulletin – but lack of queue movement obviously bodes ill for long-term wait times.
• Comparing I-526/I-526E petitions received with petitions processed by country, India continues to fare better than China or Rest of World in terms of volume and dates of petitions processed.
• USCIS processing remains not strictly in order by filing date. By May, USCIS had processed almost half of Rural I-526/I-526E filed in 2025, but  18% of Rural petitions filed in 2022-2024 had not been processed yet. Processing activity focused on 2022-2023 cases for High Unemployment, but handfuls of HUA petitions filed in 2024-2026 also had decisions by May.

FY2026 Visa Issuance — Consular Processing and Status Adjustment

The AIIA FOIA data gives insight into what’s happening at Step 1 in the EB-5 process: who is entering the pipeline backlog by filing petitions, and who’s advancing with petition approvals. I also keep an eye on the Step 2 of consular processing and status adjustment: who is exiting EB-5 visa backlogs by receiving conditional permanent residence?

There has been suspicious silence around visa issuance since 2024, with delayed consulate reports, missing visa office reports, and delayed visa bulletins. Is it possible that under cover of darkness, Department of State is honorably and efficiently issuing visas? The partial info that I’ve been able to cobble from various reports and statements suggests that the answer is “no” for consular processing and “maybe until recently” for employment-based I-485. No wonder the Visa Office is struggling to define Visa Bulletin dates that will keep queues in some kind of order by country and category, while starting the year with a large visa supply that the government would prefer not to issue. “Receiving a U.S. visa remains a privilege granted at the government’s discretion, not an entitlement,” as government press releases like to remind the public with each new restriction. AIIA is trying to organize to tackle the visa processing problem as well — through litigation if that’s what it takes. See The Administration is Attacking EB-5 by Wasting Visa Numbers through an RFE Debacle (September 22, 2026) and consider how you can support the effort.

As usual, I’ve updated my data file linked to the EB-5 Timing Page with the latest data. And I offer consultations for people who want to book a time to discuss questions one-on-one.