FY2019 EB-5 Visa Stats by Country

The Report of the Visa Office 2019 has been published, with EB-5 visa statistics in Table VI Part IV (visas issued through consular processing) and Table V Part 3 (consular processing plus I-485 status adjustment).  The statistics reflect number of green cards issued for conditional permanent residence by country of origin.

In a sense this is old news – not only because Charles Oppenheim summarized this data at the IIUSA conference last October, but also because EB-5 visas issued in FY2019 reflect EB-5 investment decisions made at least two years ago (for most countries, considering I-526 processing times) or five years ago (for China, considering the visa bulletin). To understand current EB-5 demand, we need per-country I-526 data from the beginning of the process. But USCIS resists disclosing such I-526 data, so we make do with visa statistics that reflect usage midway through the EB-5 process.

A few questions that occur to me, as I look at visa statistics:

• How close did Department of State get to its goal of issuing the total visas available for the year under numerical limits?
• How are EB-5 applicants divided between people living abroad and people already in the US? What populations in the United States are using EB-5 to adjust status?
• Beyond the few top countries, how is the EB-5 market diversifying or concentrating?
• How many EB-5 visas are actually going to investors, and how many to spouses and children?
• Which data points deserve a film contract?

The EB-5 numerical limit is not a fixed number, but 7.1% of a total number of EB visas that varies each year, further divided by the 7% per-country cap. The EB numerical limit for FY19 was 141,918 visas, which put the EB-5 share for FY19 at 10,076 visas, and the individual country share at 705 visas. In practice, it’s not possible to hit the targets exactly. In FY2019, DOS unluckily undershot the worldwide target (issuing only 9,478 total EB-5 visas) but slightly overshot the per-country target for India and Vietnam (which each ended up with more than 705 visas).  The worldwide visa numbers don’t reflect lack of demand (there were plenty of visa applications left pending at the end of the year), but complications in the process (p. 2-3 of this article explains some reasons).

US entrepreneurs promoting EB-5 investments may wonder: should I buy plane tickets, or can I find potential EB-5 investors in my own back yard? Visa statistics for consular processing vs adjustment of status can help answer this question. The data shows, for example, that nearly half of South Americans who received EB-5 visas in FY19 were not living in the South America, but already residing in the US on different visas. Likewise 31% of the EB-5 visas to Europeans, and 34% of those to Indians, went through status adjustment in the U.S. By contrast, 90% of EB-5 visas issued to China-born people in FY19 went through consular processing. (But China being China, even the 10% from status adjustment in the U.S. is still a large number: 433 people). Africans got a record (for Africa) 334 visas in FY2019, most of them issued abroad.

The Report of the Visa Office does not itemize visas by principals and derivatives, but the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics does. I’ve added a pie chart below with the most recent data (2018) as a reminder that the 10,000 or so annual EB-5 visas do not – as Congress intended – support 10,000 investments in the US economy, or 100,000 jobs. Because Department of State believes that it needs to fit whole families into the numerical limit, the EB-5 quota is only able to incentivize around 3,300 investments annually. In FY2018, just 3,363 EB-5 visas went to principals i.e. EB-5 investors. The majority of EB-5 visas (42%) went to children. (Interestingly, nearly a third of EB-5 applicants in FY18 apparently immigrated without spouses.)

Back to the Report of the Visa Office, FY2019 was similar to FY2018 in terms of country diversification, with similar regional distribution and number of countries contributing to the visa total.  Growing diversification was more evident between FY17 and FY18. The number of visas leftover for Chinese dropped significantly between FY17 (about 7,500) and FY18 (about 4,500), but remained about the same in FY19 (about 4,300). (That could change in FY21, if the visa availability approach succeeds in pushing a larger volume of rest-of-world applicants out of I-526 to the visa stage.)

I would like to see the film about the high-net-worth Chadians and North Koreans who managed to connect with EB-5 projects, document source of funds, and secure EB-5 visas in FY2019. And all those ones promise poignant stories – I’m curious about that one Croat, the one Kazahk, the one Surinamese, and the lone Kiwi who immigrated through EB-5 in FY19.

A few charts to highlight features of interest to me.

And finally, a reminder that visas can only be issued to people with active visa applications. The March 2020 visa bulletin ends with a reminder to Chinese with I-526 approval to get documentarily qualified at NVC, or risk losing place in line. The China Final Action date just jumped five months — not due to lack of Chinese with approved I-526, but due to lack of Chinese eligible to be called for a visa interview.

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILTY (note from March 2020 visa bulletin)
There has been a very rapid advancement of the China-mainland born fifth preference final action date for the month of March. This action has been taken in an effort to generate an increased level of demand. Despite the large amount of registered China fifth preference demand, currently there are not enough applicants who are actively pursuing final action on their case to fully utilize the amount of numbers which are expected to be available under the annual limit.
Once large numbers of applicants do begin to have their cases brought to final action, some type of corrective action may be required to control number use within the annual limit. It is important to remember that applicants who are entitled to immigrant status become documentarily qualified, and potentially eligible for interview, at their own initiative and convenience. By no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing final action date been processed for final visa action.

This brochure from DOS gives an overview of the NVC process and what it means to be documentarily qualified.

FY2016 EB-5 Visas Stats by Country

The US State Department Report of the Visa Office 2016 has been updated with Table V (Part 3), which gives a breakdown of all EB visas issued by country in fiscal year 2016. I’ve updated my chart with the EB-5 visa numbers. I’m interested to note the growing number of visas based on direct EB-5 investment (8.5% of the total visas versus 1.6% the previous year), the distribution of TEA investments (99.9% of regional center investments but 68% of direct investments), the growing number of visas going to investors from outside mainland China (24% versus 17% the previous year), and the growing national diversity of EB-5 investors. South Korea and Brazil each claimed over a hundred more EB-5 visas in FY16 than FY15, and five new countries entered the list of those with more than 20 visas each: Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Singapore, and Italy. Considering processing times and the visa backlog, these trends likely reflect EB-5 investments made/I-526 petitions filed in 2014 and earlier. (UPDATE: IIUSA has data on I-526 filings by country in 2016, and you can see additional detail in my post on Q3 2017 petition filings.)

Edit: updated link https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2016AnnualReport/FY16AnnualReport-TableV-Part3.pdf
For reference, here are links to my posts with summary charts of 2014 visa numbers by country and 2015 visa numbers by country.

FY2014 EB-5 Visa Stats by Country

The US Department of State has updated its Report of the Visa Office 2014 with the section on EB-5 visas issued: Section V Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2014, Part 3 (Employment Fifth and Totals, Grand Totals). I’m copying below my summary table, which lists all countries associated in FY 2014 with 20+ EB-5 visas. People wondering about trends in demand for EB-5 visas should study the full file carefully. They may also compare with visa office reports from previous years.

PS: Keep in mind that visas are not the same as petitions. I-526 petitions are one per investor and filed with USCIS, which adjudicates them and publishes its own statistics. EB-5 visas are one per investor plus his/her spouse and minor children, and are issued by the State Department after a process that follows I-526 approval.

EB-5 Visa Stats by Country

The U.S. Department of State website has finally published the Report of the Visa Office 2011. The data is old news by now, but I still enjoy looking at the table that details EB-5 visas and status adjustments by country and type of investment. Now we know that in all the world in FY2011, only one Chinese investor and up to four Dutch took advantage of a Regional Center offering at the $1 million level. During the same period, there were over three thousand visas/adjustments in connection with Regional Center TEA/$500,000  investments. Stand-alone (non-Regional Center) EB-5 investments included a relatively large percentage at the $1 million level, with 230 visas associated with investments outside of TEAs as compared with 152 visas associated with TEA/$500,000 investments. Props to the lone Australian who is the only person in all of Oceania to have gotten an EB-5 visa in FY2011, and who didn’t even add spouse/children to the visa count. The total number of EB-5 visas issued nearly doubled between 2010 and 2011 and is projected to nearly double again in 2012 according to a State Department estimate. The annual limit for EB-5 is approximately 10,000 visas (7.1% of the total 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas.) Changing the visa allocation would require an Act of Congress.

The following charts summarize data from the FY2010 and FY2011 reports from the State Department Visa Office as well as the preliminary data for FY2012 reported to AILA in July 2012.

EB-5 visas issued and adjustments of status, by region
	FY 2012 as of 06/2012	FY 2011	FY 2010
Asia	4,220	3,035	1,358
Europe		211	289
North America		89	111
South America	82	81	45
Africa		46	58
Oceana		1	24
Grand Total	(Estimate for FY 2012: 6,200)	3,463	1,885

EB-5 visas issued and adjustments of status, by foreign state chargeability
Country	FY 2011
China-mainland born	2,408
Korea, South	254
China-Taiwan born	122
Iran	117
Great Britain	57
Mexico	53
Venezuela	46
India	37
Russia	30
Vietnam	26
Canada	26
Netherlands	26
Japan	20
Turkey	20
South Africa	19
Italy	16
Brazil	16
Germany	15
Egypt	12
France	10
All other countries	133
Total	3,463

EB-5 Stats up to Q3 FY2012

USCIS has released EB-5 statistics through the third quarter of FY2012 in advance of  the 7/26 EB-5 Stakeholder Engagement teleconference. Please read the linked document for all the details. A few points of interest to me:

• Approval rates for I-526 and I-829 have remained fairly high in FY2012 though slightly below the 2011 average (79% approval percentage for I-526 compared to 81% last year, and 94% for I-924 compared to 96% last year)
• USCIS received 69% fewer I-829 in the first three quarters of 2012 than in the first three quarters of FY2011
• USCIS received (and also processed) 38% more I-526 in Q1-3 2012 than it did in the first three quarters of FY2011
• 60% of the I-924 Regional Center applications and amendments processed in Q1-Q3 2012 were denied
• There are currently 209 approved Regional Centers, up from 174 in FY11, 114 in FY10, 72 in FY09, 25 in FY08, and 11 in FY07.

EB-5 Visa Stats as of 03/2012

The State Department Visa Office has still not released its report for 2011 (and about time, too, since its FY2011 ended last September), but IIUSA has obtained a report on EB-5 visa usage up to 03/2012. IIUSA thoughtfully provides charts that illustrate the increase in visa usage by year and track trends by country. I’m interested to note that Iran and Venezuela have moved into the top five countries by visa usage, and that Chinese nationals continue to dominate the list (accounting for nearly 70% of EB-5 visas issued in 2011 and 2012 to date).

FY2022 Annual Report of the Visa Office for EB-5 visas issued by country

The Department of State has finished publishing its Report of the Visa Office 2022. The report covers EB-5 visas issued from October 2021 to September 2022, with breakdown by country of origin, path (consular processing or status adjustment), and category (direct, regional center, TEA, reserved, unreserved). I’ve been waiting anxiously for the report, wondering about visa wastage, Integrity Act implementation, and impacts on the visa backlog and EB-5 visa wait times for China, India, and Vietnam.

This post comments on highlights, followed by data tables summarized from the reports.

FY2022 EB-5 Visa Issuance and Wastage

USCIS actually issued 10,885 of the unusually-high 19,987 EB-5 visas available in 2022.   Of the 9,102 EB-5 visas that didn’t get issued in FY2022, 6,396 couldn’t have been issued because segregated in newly-created set-aside categories. (The unused set-asides should carry over in future years, though the FY23 visa limits report doesn’t show the carryover.) The remaining 2,706 unused EB-5 visas in FY2022 were permanently lost to EB-5. (FY2022 is still much better than FY2021, when EB-5 lost 15,673 total visas, and FY2020, when EB-5 lost 7,498 visas.)

Visa wastage particularly affected countries with mostly regional center applicants using consular processing. For example, South Koreans got 695 EB-5 visas in 2019 (the most recent “normal” year) but only 396  visas in 2022 (86% by consular processing), despite the fact that 909 South Korean EB-5 applicants were ready and registered at the National Visa Center at the start of 2022. Hong Kong likewise suffered, with only 142 EB-5 visas issued in FY2022 despite 866 Hong Kong applicants ready at NVC at the start of the year. Meanwhile Indians, many adjusting status in the U.S., managed to get a record 1,381 visas in 2022 – even more than technically available to them under the year’s unreserved visa limit.

Reasons for FY2022 EB-5 Visa Wastage

EB-5 visa issuance in FY2022 was as low as it was largely due to the unfortunately protracted regional center program expiration, and the policy that prevented visas from being issued to regional center applicants from October 2021 to May 2022. (I wish that policy could be litigated on behalf of the over 18,000 EB-5 visas lost during the expiration.) Monthly visas statistics show that all regional center visas issued in FY2022 were packed into just four months: June to September 2022.  

The government had the entire year to issue direct EB-5 visas, but only issued 621, likely constrained by low demand (i.e. few direct I-526 filed and even fewer making it through I-526 processing to the visa stage). By comparison, 414 direct EB-5 visas were issued in the last normal year of FY2019.

Consular processing numbers were also depressed overall compared with FY2019, reflecting on-going struggles with post-COVID backlogs. For color on why the steps in consular processing remain so slow and problematic, see questions and answers in the Department of State/AILA Liaison Committee Meeting February 9, 2023, the NVC Immigrant Visa Backlog report (look at trends in the number of interview appointments, and compare appointment volume with backlog size), and the October 2022 Update on Worldwide Visa Operations. Those in or approaching consular processing should be aware of the NVC Timeframes page, with information on process status and times. The bright side is that consular problems affect not only EB-5 but also family-based visa issuance, and EB-5 benefits in 2023 from a share in FB visas that went un-issued in 2022 (as reflected in 2023’s unusually high EB visa limit).

High Volume of EB-5 Status Adjustments in FY2022

EB-5 visa issuance in FY2022 was as high as it was thanks to an unprecedented high number of status adjustments (37% of the total, as compared with 17% in 2019). For example comparing 2022 with 2019 visa issuance, China got fewer visas last year through consular processing but five times as many visas through status adjustment. 

The unusually high AOS numbers reflect the fact that USCIS got political pressure and made herculean efforts at the end of FY2022 to step up work on employment-based status adjustments, even as consular processing continued to struggle post-COVID.  

Direct EB-5 (and the visa bulletin even briefly becoming Current for China direct EB-5) did not contribute much boost. China ended the year with only 199 direct EB-5 visas issued – not much higher than usual, and not explaining the unexpected thousands of Chinese who adjusted status in 2022.

RIA Implementation, Reserved Visas, and Country Caps

Report of the Visa Office 2022 does segregate EB-5 visas into “5^th Unreserved” and “5^th Set-Aside” categories, reflecting changes to visa availability made by the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act enacted March 15, 2022. Of course, no visas were issued in 2022 in the “5^th Set-Aside” categories, since no applicants who filed I-526 after March 15, 2022 could have reached the visa stage in time. And according to Department of State interpretation, all EB-5 applicants with pre-March 2022 priority dates can only now qualify for a visa in the new 68% unreserved category, regardless of whether they invested in a TEA that matches new definitions. (I think this interpretation can and ought to be challenged, at at least one lawsuit by DRVC is challenging it, but it’s the fact for now.)

In theory, country caps further restrict availability within each category. Thus pending applicants from any one country can only expect up to 7% of the 68% unreserved EB-5 visas (with “otherwise unused” unreserved numbers going to the oldest priority dates i.e. Chinese).

In 2022, this theory held true for Vietnam but not for India. While both countries have excess demand for unreserved visas, and large NVC backlogs, the government in fact issued 815 EB-5 visas to Vietnam (about 7% of unreserved EB-5 visas) and 1,381 EB-5 visas to India (about 7% of total EB-5 visas). Hmmm…

Was this different treatment of Indians and Vietnamese an oversight, with the government remembering the unreserved limit in the new law for Vietnam while forgetting it for India? 2022 was naturally confusing for the Visa Office, which had to deal with a mid-year law change and leadership change. Or did many Indians get lucky just because they happened to be in the US, unlike most Chinese and Vietnamese EB-5 applicants with earlier priority dates? I wonder if maybe Indians got assigned “otherwise unused” numbers at the end of the year that should’ve gone by right to earlier Chinese priority dates, but practically couldn’t because the consulate in China lacked capacity to hold more interviews in time while the California Service Center had capacity to complete more I-485 and help avoid wastage. (I also wonder if a difference between consular and USCIS capacity to issue visas at the end of the year could explain the unusually high number of Chinese regional center applicants who were able to adjust status in FY2022 — more applicants than one would expect from priority date order.)

Country Diversity

FY2022 was similar to previous years in terms of countries claiming the most EB-5 visas. As in 2019, the top users in 2022 were (in descending order): China, India, Vietnam, South Korea, Brazil, and Taiwan. Meanwhile, Mexico, Canada, Russia, and Iran moved a few notches up the list in 2022, while Venezuela, South Africa, Great Britain, and Japan moved a few notches down. I was surprised mainly by the number of Canadians on this year’s list (why, Canada?) and Iranians (considering the often arduous source of funds path).

Visa Demand Context

For a reminder of the size of the visa queue before FY2022 visa issuance,  see the presentation by Charles Oppenheim for IIUSA in November 2021. At that time, Oppenheim estimated the EB-5 backlog (including applicants already registered at NVC and potential future applicants associated with I-526 pending at USCIS) at 57,253 visa applicants for China, 7,418 for India, 3,954 for Vietnam, and 18,054 for other countries  (see Slide 10).

Visas issued in 2022 reduced those queues by 6,125 visas to China, 1,381 visas to India, and 815 visas to Vietnam. (I assume that I-526 filings in 2022 didn’t grow the queues very much, unless it turns out that most of the 829 receipts last year came from Indians).  

The future wait times associated with that scary queue depend on (1) how many petitioners/applicants in the queue will ultimately give up/lose eligibility before they can clam a visa (likely a large number given the untenable wait times looming for Chinese and Indians near the end of the queue), and (2) how many EB-5 visas will be issued per year from now on, with the base case being 9,940 EB-5 visas * 68% unreserved * 7% country cap = up to 473 to applicants of each country. The actual number of visas available per-country in a given year can be significantly higher than the 473 base case based on carryover of family-based visas (as happened in FY2022 and happening again in FY2023 due to COVID-19), carryover of reserved visas (as should happen in 2024 and 2025 assuming law compliance and continued slow I-526 processing), and unreserved visas leftover after country caps (which should increasingly benefit China in coming years).  But even with the most optimistic assumptions on future visa availability, Chinese who filed I-526 from October 2016-March 2022 and Indians who filed I-526 from November 2019-March 2022 could face five or more years of waiting just for conditional permanent residence. Or would face that wait, except that it exceeds what many applicants (not to mention their RCs, projects, and investments) can practically bear, predictably leading to many queue-shortening drop-outs/failures. Meanwhile, new investors in reserved categories have to sweat over limited availability (with just 20%, 10% or 2% of visas available in each new lane, further restricted under the 7% country cap) and guessing the time for I-526 filings to invisibly build and max out that limited availability. I’ll write more about unreserved and reserved visa availability and wait time issues in separate articles.

The bottom line is that EB-5 suffers from a supply problem. EB-5 needs more visa numbers in order to accomplish what regional centers, investors, and public policy all require: a stable and predictable immigration opportunity that can accommodate new investors plus prevent a despairing rush for the exits for past investors/investment.

Tables based on the Annual Report of the Visa Office

How Long Does I-526 Take? (III)

2020 UPDATE: I-526 timing factors have changed since this post was published in May 2018. For updates, please see:

• Interpreting Processing Times Reports (6/2/2020)
• Report from 3/13 USCIS Engagement on Visa Availability Approach (3/13/2020)

— Original Post —

This post combines, updates, and replaces my two previous posts on I-526 processing times. I’ve divided the post into six sections:

• Interpreting Official USCIS Processing Time Information
• Predicting Average Processing Times
• Understanding Variation in Processing Times
• Expedited Processing
• Individual Processing Time Experience
• Resources for Investors

How much time does USCIS take to process an I-526 petition? The short answer: usually between 3 and 33 months. The rest of this post provides the long answer.

Interpreting Official USCIS Processing Time Information

USCIS addresses the processing time question on the EB-5 filing tips page:

How long does USCIS take to process a Form I-526 petition?
For current estimates, see USCIS Processing Time Information. However, processing times can vary depending on the circumstances of each case. These include factors such as the time it takes to complete a background check and whether we need to request additional evidence.

Since, March 23, 2018, the USCIS Processing Time Information page for I-526 has looked like this:

The report claims that “We generally process cases in the order we receive them,” and provides two pieces of information: an estimated time range, and a case inquiry date.

• What “Estimated time range” means:  This month range gives a theoretical average processing time and an upper limit. The lower number (25 months) is an average that’s calculated by dividing the number of I-526 petitions pending at IPO by the average number of petitions that IPO has been processing in a month. The higher number (32.5 months) is “generally” the lower number multiplied by 1.3. Cases that take longer than 32.5 months to process have exceeded an arbitrary “upper limit” for “normal” processing times, and considered outliers. The month range provides a reasonable theoretical estimate for I-526 processing times. However, we have no evidence that the dates broadly reflect the actual ages of cases currently being adjudicated at IPO. Quite the contrary, in fact, as discussed below. (Source of my interpretation: USCIS’s More Info page, which says that we “continue to use our old method to calculate processing times” for non-pilot forms such as I-526, combined with an Office of Inspector General report exposing the “old method” for calculating processing times in the I-485 context, and corroborated by reproducing USCIS’s presumed time range calculation using public data on I-526 pending petitions and volume of adjudications.)From March 23, 2018 to May 18, 2018, the Processing Time Information Report Estimated Time Range for I-526 has remained unchanged: 25 to 32.5 months. Since the Estimated Time Range appears to be a broad theoretical calculation, not dependent on fluctuating reality, I expect it to remain unchanged in the report indefinitely, regardless of what’s happening on the ground at IPO. [Update: on 5/31/2018, the report was updated to show 20-25.5 month range for I-526.]
• What “Case inquiry date” means: As the Processing Time Information page explains,
  

  We have posted a Case Inquiry Date … to show when you can inquire about your case. If your receipt date is before the Case Inquiry Date, you can submit an “outside normal processing time” service request online.

  From March 23, 2018 to May 18, 2018, the Case Inquiry Date for I-526 has remained constant: today’s date minus 971 days. (I spot check the webpage periodically, and log the reports in my IPO Times file.) The webpage claims that the report gets updated “around the 15^th of each month,” but that has not been true yet.

  Like the Estimated Time Range, the Case Inquiry Date appears to be merely theoretical and functional. It’s more-or-less simply the upper end of the Estimated Time Range, converted from a month into a calendar date. It does not claim to be the date of cases that IPO is processing now. It’s just the cut-off date that IPO has set for complaints – and naturally IPO would choose to put that date back as far as possible. If you want to estimate when you may start to complain, add 971 days to your priority date. But your I-526 will get a decision before that date, unless it’s an outlier. And I predict that variable currently set at 971 will be adjusted downward eventually, assuming that IPO continues to improve processing speed. [Update: on 5/31/2018, the report was updated to show I-526 case inquiry date of 761 days ago, rather than 971 days ago]

Predicting Average Processing Times

Average processing time is theoretically a function of inventory (number of pending petitions) and flow rate (rate at which IPO approves and denies petitions). You can get the input data for this equation from the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page, which posts quarterly reports for I-526 and other forms. My I-526 Time spreadsheet turns the quarterly data into a prediction model that estimates average processing times as a function of petition volume at different points in time (with some assumptions about future trends). The last quarterly report indicated 24,627 I-526 pending at IPO in December 2017 and an average of 2,954 petitions processed per quarter over the last four quarters. 24,627/2,954 = 8.3 quarters to process the pending petitions (estimated average). So an I-526 petition filed in January 2018 would be theoretically likely to wait 8.3 quarters (25 months) for processing, other factors being equal. That’s consistent with the Processing Times Information page, which starts the Estimated Time Range at 25 months. But unequal reality leads to some petitions being processed more quickly.

Understanding Variation in Processing Times

Here’s what IPO has said about I-526 time variation (summarized from communications copied in my log of IPO communications on processing times).

• DHS estimates that the average Form I-526 gets 6.5 hours of touch time.  That means an adjudicator spends less than a day handling the case —  the remaining (and most variable) processing time is queue time and time spent waiting for additional evidence or supervisory approval.
• IPO has at least three queues going for I-526 petitions: (1) a queue for direct EB-5 petitions; (2) a queue for regional center petitions based on investment in projects that haven’t yet been reviewed; (3) a queue for regional center petitions based on investment in projects that have Exemplar I-526 approval or previous I-526 approvals.  The following chart illustrates my understanding of IPO Deputy Chief Julia Harrison’s description of the process.
  
  IPO indicates that each queue has dedicated staff working on it. Petitions within each queue are ordered by earliest filing date. A regional center petition for a project not previously reviewed must wait in Queue 2 (for project-specific adjudication) and then again in Queue 3 (for investor-specific adjudication). RC petitions for previously-approved projects advance straight to Queue 3. IPO encourages communication between team leaders on the Queue 1 and Queue 2/3 side to ensure that direct and RC petitions filed at the same time move forward concurrently. With this complex process, it’s unsurprising that IPO appears far from its intention to process cases more-or-less in the order in which they are received.
• Factors that can speed I-526 processing per IPO:
  • Investing in a project with an approved Exemplar and/or previously-approved I-526
  • Having a clear, high-quality petition (this is important when evidence requests and supervisory approval are the major variables — besides queue time — in overall processing time)
  • Having an approved expedite request (this shortens the queue time, not the adjudicator touch time).
• Factors that can slow I-526 processing per IPO:
  • Having a petition that’s poor-quality, unclear, problematic, or otherwise inspires IPO to request additional evidence
  • Filing with/after a surge of other people who filed poor-quality petitions
• Factors that don’t affect I-526 processing time per IPO:
  • The investor’s nationality. (IPO does not currently sort petitions by nationality. There is no hold-up for China-born petitioners at the I-526 stage, as there is at the visa stage. However, IPO asks whether they should change that — considering that fast I-526 approval doesn’t help China-born investors facing a long visa wait regardless. Also, stats show that I-526 denial rates are much higher for some countries than others, which makes me suspect that IPO finds some countries’ source of funds and background checks more challenging than others – which could naturally be associated with longer processing times. So even if the process is FCFS for all nationalities, it’s probably not FIFO for all nationalities.)
  • Whether the petition is for a direct or regional center investment. (IPO claims that they try to move direct and RC petitions forward concurrently. However there may be some regional center advantage in practice since direct petitions are often the first in a project and cannot take advantage of Exemplar approval.)
  • Project size. (IPO reports that they do not privilege petitions for big projects with many investors. But some anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise.)
  • TEA status. (Some legislative reform proposals have suggested offering quicker processing to petitions based on investment in a Targeted Employment Area, but IPO does not report having any such policy now.)

Expedited Processing
EB-5 forms, like other immigration forms, can apply for and benefit from expedited processing under certain limited conditions. Expedited processing reduces the time a form takes to reach an adjudicator’s desk. It does not reduce the time to adjudicate the petition, and does not reduce the visa wait time for petitioners from countries with a cut-off date.

• For official information, see https://www.uscis.gov/forms/expedite-criteria
• Here is the most balanced and helpful article I’ve read on the topic: Analyzing the Recent Trend of EB-5 Expedited Processing by Joseph Barnett, Partner, Wolfsdorf Rosenthal LLP (originally published in the 2018 Q3/4 Regional Center Business Journal)
• This article gives historical context: Anatomy of a Successful EB-5 Expedite Request (May 2013)
• This article gives the perspective of counsel representing a client who promotes expedited processing: Successful Expedited Case Processing in EB-5 (September 2018)
• This article provides a critique: The Great EB-5 “Expedited Processing” Debate: The Issue of “False Inducement” (September 2018)

Individual Processing Time Experience

Individual processing time variation means that some people wait longer than the theoretical average 25 months for I-526 approval, while others receive approval much more quickly.

My best evidence for faster-than-average approval is priority dates for pending visa applications. If all I-526 take 2 years to process, then Department of State should have been receiving applications in 2017 from people who filed I-526 in 2015. In fact, as of October 2017 Department of State reported having over 1,500 pending visa applications based on I-526 petitions filed in 2016 and 2017. Assuming an average 3 visa applications per approved petition, that reflects about 500 I-526 petitions approved and advanced to the next stage within a year of filing. And the DOS report only mentioned pending applications for five countries, not counting all applications for the year. I-485 inventory statistics likewise show many pending status adjustment applications with recent priority dates.

I set up a Google Form to collect reports of processing time experience from individual investors. (Entries still welcome!) In the very limited sample of entries so far (which appear in this Google Sheet), I-526 approvals in 2017/2018 that were reported to me had an average processing time of 19 months, with standard deviation of 7 months. The following tables summarize results reported in my Form so far.

Resources for Investors

• I set up an EB5 Forum for investors to discuss EB-5 experience. (Right now it’s private but anyone’s free to join – just sign up. I participate in the conversation occasionally as I have time.)
• Some blog readers have set up a group using the Telegram app to share I-526 experience. I’m not on this myself, but I hear that discussion has been lively. Here’s the link to join: https://t.me/EB5VisaGroup If you know of other social media for EB-5 investors, alert me and I’ll publish links here.
• Here’s my I-526 Time spreadsheet with data and prediction tool, and my log of communications from USCIS regarding processing times. Keep the links; I update the files regularly as new information becomes available.
• My post I-526 and EB-5 visa wait times; country-specific effects of potential changes (June 18, 2018) examines the separate question of the time to get an EB-5 visa (conditional permanent residence).
• Helpful articles: Options for EB-5 Investors When Form I-526 Petitions Are Pending Too Long and Mandamus Lawsuits on Delayed EB-5 Adjudications (Wolfsdorf Law)

Additional Note

My series of timing posts is missing an important piece: analysis of the steps and time factors (for countries with no cut-off date yet) between receiving the Form I-797, Approval Notice for the I-526 and claiming an EB-5 visa number. Especially Indians are trying to calculate: if I can count on receiving I-526 adjudication in the next few weeks, can I count on getting allocated a visa number in the advance of the Visa Bulletin giving a cut-off date for India? The point at which the visa number actually gets allocated, and the factors/timing between I-526 approval and that point, vary between I-485 and consular processing, and I don’t understand it all yet. But potential investors should include this in discussions with counsel, because delays can be considerable for consular processing anyway. I’m hearing reports of USCIS taking  8+ months just to forward I-526 approvals to the National Visa Center. Ironically, it seems that the faster USCIS adjudicates I-526, the more it drags its feet on advancing that approval to the next stage. But this is a developing situation, and I have limited examples. Here is my background reading list so far FYI. Please email me any additional helpful articles and current timing information.

• NVC Timeline for Consular Processing (October 11, 2017) Miller Mayer
• Adjustment of Status Process (June 20, 2017) Miller Mayer
• The Operation of the Immigrant Numerical Control System Department of State
• The “Red Combo Card” Option for EB-5 Indian Nationals – Will It Work? (September 8, 2018) Wolfsdorf Rosenthal

UPDATE: I’ve added a EB-5 Timing page to collect links to all data and posts related to EB-5 visa availability, visa allocation, and wait times.

FY2017 EB-5 Visas by Country

The US Department of State has published Table V Part 3 of the Report of the Visa Office 2017, which gives a tally of visas issued by country for the Employment Fifth preference (EB-5) in FY2017. If we believe USCIS processing times reports, these should be visas based on investments/petitions from 2015 or earlier. A few points to note:

• Having issued slightly fewer than the annual EB-5 visa quota last year, DOS compensated by going slightly over the quota this year.
• Vietnam and Brazil are the countries with greatest increase in EB-5 visas issued between 2016 and 2017. South Korea showed the largest drop.
• South America is the region with the greatest increase in number of EB-5 visas issued in 2017, and Europe the region with the greatest increase in number of nationalities receiving EB-5 visas.
• Compared with 2016, the 2017 report has more countries taking at least one visa, but fewer countries taking over 20 visas. Kudos to the brave lone souls from Angola, Cameroon, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Tajikistan, and Suriname who immigrated last year though EB-5.
• Countries besides China claimed 25% of the 2017 EB-5 visas (compared with 24% in 2016).
• There were 160 fewer visas based on direct EB-5 investments in 2017 than 2016.
• In addition to the Visa Office Report data on EB-5 visas issued during FY2017, we also have data on applications pending at the National Visa Center at the end of FY2017. (I’ve copied a couple charts below, and you can consult the Visas tab in my master visa/backlog spreadsheet for additional detail and source links.) It’s puzzling to look at the different reports together. For example, one wonders why the drop in visas issued to South Koreans in 2017, when there were 278 visa applications for South Koreans left pending at the end of the year. Or why people from Hong Kong got only 81 EB-5 visas in 2017, when there were 447 Hong Kong applications pending in November 2016 and 423 still pending in November 2017. Vietnamese received a hefty 335 EB-5 visas in 2017, just behind China, but 649 Vietnamese applications were still left pending. In total, DOS issued 2,523 visas in 2017 to applicants from countries other than China, but that still left 3,524 applications from countries other than China pending at NVC as of November 2017. Anyone know the story behind the non-China backlogs at NVC?

For reference, here are my posts on the Visa Office Reports from 2016, 2015, and 2014.

For a running tab of EB-5 visas issued through consular processing by country, see the Department of State’s report of Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuances. (The visas with “5” as the second digit in the three-digit code are EB-5 visas: C51, C52, C53, T51, T52, T53, R51, R52, R53, I51, I52, I53.)

UPDATE: I’ve added a EB-5 Timing page to collect links to data and posts related to EB-5 visa availability, visa allocation, and wait times. If you would like to order a personalized timing estimate, see the EB-5 Timing Estimates Page.